Biology subjects

Milicic, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Milicic, M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Winners and Losers Among European Arthropods over the Last Half Century of Global Change

Widespread concern over arthropod declines has raised questions about how global change is reshaping biodiversity, yet large-scale responses within the group remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse 50 years (1970-2019) of European arthropod occurrence data to quantify distributional changes across more than 700 species within 11 taxonomic groups. Using occupancy-detection models that account for imperfect detection, we compare time-only and environmentally mediated trends, including changes to temperature, precipitation, and agricultural and urban land cover. We find no universal signal of decline; responses are highly heterogeneous, revealing distinct winners and losers both within and among groups. Climate variables, particularly temperature and precipitation, are the strongest predictors of change, while agricultural intensification is broadly negative and urbanisation produces group-specific effects. Trait analyses indicate that warm- and dry-affiliated species and larger-bodied arthropods generally fare better. These results show that recent European arthropod change is dominated by redistribution rather than uniform collapse, with important implications for conservation and monitoring under ongoing global change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Experimental enhancement of structural heterogeneity in forest landscapes promotes multidimensional hoverfly diversity.

O_LIThe homogenization of temperate forests due to intensive management has led to biodiversity loss at local and landscape scales, threatening species persistence and ecosystem functions. However, experimental evidence on how structural heterogeneity among forest patches influences diversity at the landscape scale is lacking. Here, we test whether enhancing structural heterogeneity, via diverse deadwood enrichment and canopy gap creation treatments (Enhancement of Structural Beta Complexity, ESBC), can increase hoverfly diversity within landscapes, and elucidate the contributions of local (-) diversity enrichment and turnover ({beta}-diversity) to this effect. C_LIO_LIWe conducted a large-scale forest experiment in 11 regions across Germany. Each region included two districts, representing small forest landscapes. In one district, we implemented patches with ESBC treatments, while in the other, serving as the control, we established patches without ESBC. Hoverflies were sampled in three seasonal intervals and across, in total, 234 forest patches (50 x 50 m) using pan traps. We applied a new integrative meta-analytic framework that incorporates sample completeness to quantify taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity (TD, FD, PD) using Hill numbers at , {beta}, and {gamma} scales. C_LIO_LIAll three {gamma}-diversity dimensions - TD, FD, and PD - were significantly higher in structurally heterogeneous forest landscapes than in homogeneous ones. The strongest effects were observed for TD, indicating functional and phylogenetic redundancy among species. Effect sizes declined with increasing order of Hill numbers, suggesting that rare species benefit most from structural heterogeneity. C_LIO_LIIn most regions, {gamma}-diversity gains were driven by increases in -diversity rather than {beta}-diversity, highlighting the importance of interventions to increase local structural complexity. However, several regions also showed elevated {beta}-diversity, indicating context-dependent effects of spatial heterogeneity. C_LIO_LIOur results provide the first experimental evidence that enhancing structural heterogeneity at the landscape scale can restore multi-dimensional insect diversity in temperate forests. They underscore the management value of ESBC as a scalable tool to restore biodiversity, increase ecological resilience, and counteract biotic homogenization in production forests. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Insect threats and conservation through the lens of global experts

While many recent studies have focused on global insect population trends, all are limited either in space or taxonomic scope. Since global monitoring programs for insects are not implemented, biased data are therefore the norm. However, expert opinion is both valuable and widely available, and should be fully exploited when hard data are not available. Our aim is to use global expert opinion to provide insights on the root causes of potential insect declines worldwide, as well as on effective conservation strategies that could mitigate insect biodiversity loss. We obtained 753 responses from 413 respondents with a wide variety of expertise. The most relevant threats identified through the survey were agriculture and climate change, followed by pollution, while land management and land protection were recognized as the most significant conservation measures. Nevertheless, there were differences across regions and insect groups, reflecting the variability within the most diverse class of living organisms on our planet. Lack of answers for certain biogeographic regions or taxa also reflects the need for research, particularly in less investigated settings. Our results provide a first step towards understanding global threats and conservation measures for insects.

ecology↗