Michael Lässig | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2014

Epidemiological and evolutionary analysis of the 2014 Ebola virus outbreak

The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades [1]. Here we find evidence that major Sierra Leone clades have systematic differences in growth rate and reproduction number. If this growth heterogeneity remains stable, it will generate major shifts in clade frequencies and influence the overall epidemic dynamics on time scales within the current outbreak. Our method is based on simple summary statistics of clade growth, which can be inferred from genealogical trees with an underlying clade-specific birth-death model of the infection dynamics. This method can be used to perform realtime tracking of an evolving epidemic and identify emerging clades of epidemiological or evolutionary significance.

Evolutionary Biology↗

bioRxiv2014

Rate and cost of adaptation in the Drosophila genome

Recent studies have consistently inferred high rates of adaptive molecular evolution between Drosophila species. At the same time, the Drosophila genome evolves under different rates of recombination, which results in partial genetic linkage between alleles at neighboring genomic loci. Here we analyze how linkage correlations affect adaptive evolution. We develop a new inference method for adaptation that takes into account the effect on an allele at a focal site caused by neighboring deleterious alleles (background selection) and by neighboring adaptive substitutions (hitchhiking). Using complete genome sequence data and fine-scale recombination maps, we infer a highly heterogeneous scenario of adaptation in Drosophila. In high-recombining regions, about 50% of all amino acid substitutions are adaptive, together with about 20% of all substitutions in proximal intergenic regions. In low-recombining regions, only a small fraction of the amino acid substitutions are adaptive, while hitchhiking accounts for the majority of these changes. Hitchhiking of deleterious alleles generates a substantial collateral cost of adaptation, leading to a fitness decline of about 30/2N per gene and per million years in the lowest-recombining regions. Our results show how recombination shapes rate and efficacy of the adaptive dynamics in eukaryotic genomes.

Evolutionary Biology↗