Mezzanotte, V. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2025

Climate risk for Italian habitats

Climate change is a major driver of global biodiversity loss, and Europe is no exception with several areas exposed to high climate velocity and/or magnitude. Within the rapidly warming Europe, Italy is facing particularly high risk as part of the Mediterranean region with potentially dramatic consequences for its diverse habitat types. While species-level effects of climate risk are widely investigated, habitat-level exposure to climate change has rarely been assessed. This reduces the comprehensiveness of habitat state assessment under the Habitats Directive, and risks creating a blind spot on Protected Area effectiveness. Here we quantified the future (year 2050) climatic exposure of 139 EUNIS level-3 habitats across Italy, using two complementary metrics: analog velocity and multivariate magnitude. We found that median analog velocity was generally modest (median =0.15; Std = 0.41 km/y), and only a few habitats exceeded the critical velocity threshold of 0.5 km/yr. Instead, magnitude was typically high (median = 6.54; Std = 0.80) and 77% of habitat exceeded the critical threshold of 6.18. We also found a few habitats (2.15%) concurrently facing high velocity and high magnitude of climate change, mainly located in Apulia and Veneto. Mediterranean annual-rich dry grasslands and montane unvegetated inland shores were among the most exposed habitats (magnitudes {approx}7.1-7.3; velocities {approx}0.42-0.66 km/y), while cliff and mountain forest habitats in Sardinia and Sicily showed the lowest exposure. We urge countries to explicitly incorporate habitat-level exposure as part of national protection and restoration plans.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2024

The accelerating exposure of European protected areas to climate change

1.All ecosystems are affected by climate change, but differences in the pace of change will render some areas more exposed than others. Such spatial patterns of risk are important when assessing the continued functionality of protected area (PA) networks or planning for their expansion. Europe is undertaking an expansion of the PA network to cover 30% of its land and sea surface, but this must account for climate risk. Here, we estimate four metrics of future climate risk across Europe - local velocity, distance velocity, magnitude, and residence time - and assess the level of climate exposure of European PAs vs non-protected control sites. We also evaluate the intensity of climate risks on >1,000 European species of conservation concern, associated with Natura2000 sites. Our results show large spatial differences in climate change exposure across Europe, with faster pace and farther shifts in climate in the Boreal, Steppic, and Pannonian regions but slower changes in the Mediterranean, Alpine, Artic, and Macronesian regions. Climate change magnitude was higher for the Alpine, Mediterranean, and Steppic regions, implying large local differences between present and future climate. These spatial risk patterns were largely consistent across scenarios, but with up to three times higher risk under the most pessimistic vs the most optimistic scenario. Large variation in climate exposure for species of conservation concern was revealed, including 11 species which are highly dependent on Natura2000 sites and predicted to experience rapid climate change. Our results provide guidance for managing European PAs, and expanding their coverage, by pinpointing areas offering more stable climates. We emphasize the need for connectivity across the network, to support species adaption via range shifting. This is especially the case in areas facing high climate change magnitude but low climate velocity, implying that climate conditions similar to current ones will be found nearby.

ecology↗