Biology subjects

McLaughlin, A.

Publications and source records attributed to McLaughlin, A..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Influenza A virus H5Nx genotypes assigned by genetic similarity are incongruent with global phylogenies

Influenza A virus H5N1 and other H5 subtypes (H5Nx) have broad host ranges and pose a pandemic risk. Since early 2022, H5 clade 2.3.4.4b has predominated globally, causing unprecedented mortality in wild birds, poultry, and mammals, with spillovers to humans. Accurate viral classification is essential for tracking H5Nx variant emergence and spread, but reassortment among genome segments with distinct evolutionary histories complicates genotyping. H5Nx genotype assignment tools, GenoFlu in North America and Genin2 in Europe, assign segments to clusters by genetic similarity to reference sequences and define genotypes as constellations of segment clusters. However, genetic similarity does not necessarily imply recent shared ancestry because mutations may occur multiple times across the tree and branches may exhibit variable evolutionary rates. Furthermore, similarity is defined relative to references that may inadequately represent diversity. We evaluated the congruence of genetic similarity-based H5Nx clusters and genotypes with phylogenies of global sequences across eight segments. Publicly available H5Nx nucleotide sequences from 41,366 samples were assigned genotypes using GenoFlu and Genin2, and maximum likelihood phylogenies were inferred for each segment. Phylogenetic clusters were identified using TreeCluster for a range of patristic distance thresholds and CD-HIT clusters were identified for a range of genetic similarity thresholds. Clustering methods were evaluated based on phylogenetic purity, monophyly, and diversity. Reassortment within predominant GenoFlu and Genin2 genotypes was evaluated based on their phylogenetic cluster spans. Expectedly, GenoFlu was largely unable to assign genomes from outside of North America, South America, and Antarctica from 2022 to 2025, whereas Genin2 assignments struggled outside of Europe, Africa, and Western Asia. Only 14.2% of GenoFlu clusters were monophyletic, while Genin2 clusters were more variable across segments (overall 49.3% monophyletic). Despite CD-HIT yielding genetic distance clusters of similar size to TreeCluster, they were less monophyletic (44%) and encompassed greater phylogenetic diversity. We identified several genotypes, such as GenoFlu B3.13, D1.1, and D1.3, with internal segments that had diversified into contiguous clusters. Similarly, the wide phylogenetic span of GenoFlu genotypes B3.5 and A3, and Genin2 genotypes EA-2020-C, EA-2021-AB, and EA-2022-CH suggest they may erroneously combine multiple reassortants. Genetic similarity-based H5Nx genotyping tools are rapid, stable, and sufficient for broad categorization, but may group viruses with distinct evolutionary histories and fail to assign divergent viruses, risking biased surveillance, modeling, and risk assessment.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2021

Fundamental identifiability limits in molecular epidemiology

Viral phylogenies provide crucial information on the spread of infectious diseases, and many studies fit mathematical models to phylogenetic data to estimate epidemiological parameters such as the effective reproduction ratio (Re) over time. Such phylodynamic inferences often complement or even substitute for conventional surveillance data, particularly when sampling is poor or delayed. It remains generally unknown, however, how robust phylodynamic epidemiological inferences are, especially when there is uncertainty regarding pathogen prevalence and sampling intensity. Here we use recently developed mathematical techniques to fully characterize the information that can possibly be extracted from serially collected viral phylogenetic data, in the context of the commonly used birth-death-sampling model. We show that for any candidate epidemiological scenario, there exist a myriad of alternative, markedly different and yet plausible "congruent" scenarios that cannot be distinguished using phylogenetic data alone, no matter how large the dataset. In the absence of strong constraints or rate priors across the entire study period, neither maximum-likelihood fitting nor Bayesian inference can reliably reconstruct the true epidemiological dynamics from phylogenetic data alone; rather, estimators can only converge to the "congruence class" of the true dynamics. We propose concrete and feasible strategies for making more robust epidemiological inferences from viral phylogenetic data.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

A General Birth-Death-Sampling Model for Epidemiology and Macroevolution

Birth-death stochastic processes are the foundation of many phylogenetic models and are widely used to make inferences about epidemiological and macroevolutionary dynamics. There are a large number of birth-death model variants that have been developed; these impose different assumptions about the temporal dynamics of the parameters and about the sampling process. As each of these variants was individually derived, it has been difficult to understand the relationships between them as well as their precise biological and mathematical assumptions. Without a common mathematical foundation, deriving new models is non-trivial. Here we unify these models into a single framework, prove that many previously developed epidemiological and macroevolutionary models are all special cases of a more general model, and illustrate the connections between these variants. This framework centers around a technique for deriving likelihood functions for arbitrarily complex birth-death(-sampling) models that will allow researchers to explore a wider array of scenarios than was previously possible. We then use this frame-work to derive general model likelihoods for both the "single-type" case in which all lineages diversify according to the same process and the "multi-type" case, where there is variation in the process among lineages. By re-deriving existing single-type birth-death sampling models we clarify and synthesize the range of explicit and implicit assumptions made by these models.

evolutionary biology↗