Massolo, A. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

A highly endemic area of Echinococcus multilocula is identified through a comparative re-assessment of prevalence in red fox (Vulpes vulpes), Alto Adige (Italy: 2019-2020)

BackgroundSurveillance of E. multilocularis at the edge of its range is hindered by fragmented distributional patterns and low prevalence and burden in definitive hosts. Thus, tests with adequate levels of sensitivity are especially important for discriminating between infected and non-infected areas. AimWe reassessed the prevalence of E. multilocularis at the southern border of its distribution in Alto Adige (Italy), to improve surveillance in wildlife and provide more accurate estimates of exposure risk. MethodsWe compared results from the diagnostic test currently implemented for surveillance (based on Coproscopy+Multiplex PCR - CMPCR), against a real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) for 235 fox faeces collected in 2019-2020. The performances of the two tests were estimated using a scraping technique (SFCT) as the gold standard applied to the small intestines of a subsample (n=123) of the same hosts. True prevalence was calculated and sample size required by each faecal test for the detection of the parasite was then estimated. ResultsTrue prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes (14.3%) was definitely higher than reported in the last decade (never >5% from 2012 to 2018). The qPCR also had a higher sensitivity (83%) compared to CMPCR (21%). Agreement with the gold standard was far higher for qPCR (0.816) than CMPCR (0.298) as well, determining a smaller sample size required to detect the disease. ConclusionsAlto Adige should be considered a highly endemic area. Surveillance at the edges of E. multilocularis distribution should adopt qPCR diagnostics on definitive hosts on a small geographic scale. AUTHOR SUMMARYEchinococcus multilocularis is an intestinal flatworm, whose adult stage in Europe is harboured mainly by the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), which spreads parasites eggs by faeces. This parasite is the agent of a severe and potentially lethal zoonosis, the alveolar echinococcosis, affecting humans after accidental ingestion of parasites eggs. In the Italian Alpine area, which represents the southernmost border of E. multilocularis European range, surveillance is hindered by a fragmented distributional pattern, where presence in foxes has been consistently reported only in few isolated foci in Alto Adige (Bolzano province - Italy) of low prevalence. In order to improve the efficiency of monitoring efforts, we tested the performances of two diagnostic protocols on fox faeces (sedimentation, filtration, counting technique followed by standard PCR, and whole stool real-time PCR) against a benchmark technique on fox intestines (scraping, filtration, counting technique - considered as the gold standard). This allowed not only to determine qPCR as a far more sensitive and sample-efficient diagnostic tool for E. multilocularis detection in marginally affected areas, but also to re-assess its prevalence in Alto Adige, which should be considered a highly endemic area. Consequent actions in the field and modifications in the surveillance strategy should be therefore considered.

molecular biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Projected dynamics of breeding habitat suitability for a steppe-land bird warrant anticipatory conservation actions

Understanding spatial and temporal variations of habitat suitability is fundamental for species conservation under global change. Steppic species are particularly sensitive to anthropogenic change and have undergone large declines in the last decades. We aimed to describe current and future breeding habitat suitability for the Eurasian stone-curlew Burhinus oedicnemus, a steppic species of conservation concern, and to identify critical areas for its conservation. We collected 1628 presence records covering the period 1992-2016. We developed a species distribution model using a dynamic Maxent algorithm and a set of pseudo-absences with a spatial density weighted on a fixed kernel density estimated on the presences, to mitigate the potential sampling bias. We projected this model under a set of carbon emission, socioeconomic and land-use/land-cover scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Finally, we described the cell-wise and mean change of breeding habitat suitability through consecutive time intervals and identified the areas critical for the species conservation. All scenarios predicted a short-term northward shift of suitable areas, followed by a period of stability. We found no consistent trends in the mean change of breeding habitat suitability, and similar extents of suitable areas under current and future scenarios. Critical areas for the conservation of the species are mainly located in Northern Europe, Israel and parts of North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. According to our results, the Eurasian stone-curlew has the potential to maintain viable populations in the Western Palearctic, but dispersal limitations might hinder the colonization of shifted suitable areas. Targeted conservation interventions in the critical areas are therefore recommended to secure the future of the species under global change.

ecology↗