Marucco, F. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Wolf microevolution in the melting pot: range expansion, population sympatry, dynamic mosaic admixture zone and asymmetric gene flow

Here we describe substantial range shifts of historically differentiated wolf populations and formation of novel sympatric zones during the recent decade in Central Europe. This region provides a natural laboratory for testing alternative scenarios of population interactions from continued isolation or restricted gene flow to progressive population fusion, while prompting a reassessment of their geographic ranges. Based on sampling across the Czech Republic and Slovakia obtained from large-scale monitoring programmes over five wolf years (2020/21_2024/25), complemented by comparative material from neighbouring regions, we analysed mitochondrial haplotypes, autosomal microsatellite genotypes and sex-linked loci. The Central European population with Baltic ancestry predominated across large parts of Central Europe including the Bohemian Massif with enclaves in the Western Carpathians. The Carpathian population was predominant in Slovakia, with a smaller satellite occurrence in the northern part of the Bohemian Massif. Alpine population was centred in the Alps but extended into southern parts of Bohemian Massif and Central German Uplands. Following the sporadic occurrence of admixed individuals, broad mosaic and dynamic sympatric zones have formed in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the last decade. These scenarios could be facilitated by the presence of intermediate habitats and isolation of the Bohemian Massif structural basin, framed by a massive ring fault system. Recent-immigration estimates are asymmetric, with the largest mean contributions from the Alpine to the Central European population and from the Central European to the Carpathian population, with the second case potentially linked to source-sink dynamics driven by the hunting pressure within the Carpathian population (whereas the others are protected year-round). Whether increasing admixture will enhance viability of populations (that currently have small effective sizes) through genetic rescue or carry risks of outbreeding depression remains uncertain, highlighting the need for continued transboundary monitoring within conservation biology framework.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

The spatial distribution and temporal trends of livestock damages caused by wolves in Europe

Wolf populations are recovering and expanding across Europe, causing conflicts with livestock owners. To mitigate these conflicts and reduce livestock damages, authorities spend considerable resources to compensate damages, support damage prevention measures, and manage wolf populations. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains largely unknown, especially at larger geographic scales. Here we compiled incident-based livestock damage data across 21 countries for the years 2018, 2019 and 2020, during which 39,262 wolf-caused incidents were reported from 470 administrative regions. We found substantial regional variation in all aspects of the data, including the primary target species, the density of damages, their seasonal distribution, and their temporal trend. More than half of the variation in damage densities across regions is explained by the area of extensively cultivated habitats occupied by wolves and namely natural grasslands and broad-leaved forests. Regional variation in husbandry practices and damage prevention, while difficult to quantify at a continental scale, appear important factors to further modulate these incidents. As illustrated with detailed data from Germany, for instance, the relationship between the number of wolf units and damages is diminishing over time, suggesting some adaptation of livestock owners and local authorities to their presence, for example by increasing prevention efforts. As we argue, temporal trends of damage incidents, which are robust to variation in data collection across regions, are thus informative about the local intensity of the wolf-human conflict. We estimated increasing trends for the majority of regions, reflecting the current expansion of wolves across the continent. Nonetheless, many of these increases were moderate and for more than one third of all regions, trends were negative despite growing wolf populations, thus indicating that wolf-livestock conflicts can be successfully mitigated with proper management.

ecology↗