Biology subjects

Manica, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Manica, A..

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Low-ABC: a robust demographic Inference from low-coverage whole-genome data through ABC

The reconstruction of past demographic histories relies on the pattern of genetic variation shown by the sampled populations; this means that an accurate estimation of genotypes is crucial for a reliable inference of past processes. A commonly adopted approach to reconstruct complex demographic dynamics is the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. It exploits coalescent simulations to generate the expected level of variation under different evolutionary scenarios. Demographic inference is then performed by comparing the simulated data with the genotypes called in the sampled individuals. Low sequencing coverage drastically affects the ability to reliably call genotypes, thus making low-coverage data unsuitable for such powerful inferential approaches. Here, we present Low-ABC, a new ABC approach to infer past population processes using low-coverage whole-genome data. Under this framework, both observed and simulated genetic variation are not directly compared using called genotypes, but rather obtained using genotype likelihoods to consider the uncertainty caused by the low sequencing coverage. We first evaluated the inferential power of this procedure in distinguishing among different demographic models and in inferring model parameters under different experimental conditions, including a wide spectrum of sequencing coverage (1x to 30x), number of individuals, number, and size of genetic loci. We showed that the use of genotype likelihoods integrated into an ABC framework provides a reliable inference of past population dynamics, thus making possible the application of model-based inference also for low-coverage data. We then applied Low-ABC to shed light on the relationship between Mesolithic and Early Neolithic European populations.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2024

The Acheulean niche: climate and ecology predict handaxe production in Europe

The Acheulean was the most spatially and temporally vast stone tool industry produced by early humans, persisting for >1.6 million years across three continents. Understanding how behavioral and artifactual variation in these populations relates to climate change and ecology is vital to correctly interpreting the archaeological record, especially given the major climatic and cultural fluctuations during the Pleistocene. Bifacially flaked core tools - which technologically define the tradition - are sometimes regionally and periodically absent within the Acheuleans boundaries. Biface presence is broadly associated with, but rarely formally tested against, environmental conditions. Here, we investigate biface presence/absence and climate/ecological variation at a continental scale between 726 and 130ka. Using a comprehensive sample of European sites matched to paleoenvironmental reconstructions, we demonstrate clear associations between Acheulean presence and specific environments. Acheulean habitat suitability was most strongly associated with mean winter temperatures above -5/-10{degrees}C, and precipitation of the driest month above 15 mm. Two major habitats, warm forest/woodland and shrubland, comprised the European Acheulean niche. Acheulean spatial presence was reconstructed through time: during interglacial and glacial periods it covered most of southwestern Europe, but extended along northern coastal routes during interglacials. Central and Eastern Europe always remained unsuitable. The Acheulean was excluded from areas experiencing both low winter temperatures and low summer precipitation, but reached areas including only one of those two climatic extremes, suggesting seasonal migrations to avoid the harshest seasons. These analyses explain current Acheulean site distributions in Europe and suggest strong links between handaxes, specific ecological conditions, and prehistoric demographic patterns.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Population interconnectivity shapes the distribution and complexity of chimpanzee cumulative culture

While cumulative culture is a hallmark of hominin evolution, its origins can be traced back to our common ancestor with chimpanzees. Here we investigate the evolutionary origins of chimpanzee cumulative culture, and why it remained incipient. To trace cultural transmission among the four chimpanzee subspecies, we compared between-population networks based on genetic markers of recent migration and shared cultural traits. We show that limited levels of interconnectivity favored the emergence of a few instances of cumulative culture in chimpanzees. As in humans, cultural complexification likely happened in steps, with between-community transmission promoting incremental changes and repurposing of technologies. We propose that divergence in social patterns led to increased between-group mobility in Homo, propelling our lineage towards a trajectory of irreversible dependence on cultural exchange and complexification. One-Sentence SummaryPopulation interconnectivity through migration explains the origins of chimpanzee cumulative culture and why it remained incipient

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

tidysdm: leveraging the flexibility of tidymodels for Species Distribution Modelling in R

In species distribution modelling (SDM), it is common practice to explore multiple machine-learning algorithms and combine their results into ensembles. This is no easy task in R: different algorithms were developed independently, with inconsistent syntax and data structures. Specialised SDM packages integrate multiple algorithms by creating a complex interface between the user (providing a unified input and receiving a unified output), and the back-end code (that tackles the specific needs depending on the algorithm). This requires a lot of work to create and maintain the right interface, and it prevents an easy integration of other methods that may become available. Here we present tidysdm, an R package that solves this problem by taking advantage of the tidymodels universe. Being part of the tidyverse, (i) it has standardised grammar and data structures providing a coherent interface for modelling, (ii) includes packages designed for fitting, tuning, and validating various models, and (iii) allows easy integration of new algorithms and methods. tidysdm allows easy, flexible and quick species distribution modelling by supporting standard algorithms, including additional SDM-oriented functions, and giving the opportunity of using any algorithm or procedure to fit, tune and validate a large number of different models. Additionally, it provides further functions to easily fit models based on paleo/time-scattered data. The package includes two vignettes detailing standard procedures for present-day and time-scattered data. These vignettes also showcase the integration with pastclim (Leonardi et al. 2023) to allow easier access to palaeoclimatic data series, if needed, but users can bring in their own climatic data in standard formats.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Niche conservatism in a generalist felid: low differentiation of the climatic niche among subspecies of the leopard (Panthera pardus)

AimSpecies distribution modelling can be used to reveal if the ecology of a species varies across its range, to investigate if range expansions entailed niche shifts, and to help assess ecological differentiation: the answers to such questions are vital for effective conservation. The leopard (Panthera pardus spp.) is a generalist species composed of one African and eight Asian subspecies, reflecting dispersal from an ancestral African range. This study uses species distribution models to compare the niches of leopard subspecies, to investigate if they conserved their niches when moving into new territories or adapted to local conditions and shifted niche. LocationAfrica and Eurasia MethodsWe assembled a database of P. pardus spp. presences. We then associated them with bioclimatic variables to identify which are relevant in predicting the distribution of the leopard. We then constructed a species distribution model and compared the distribution predicted from models based on presences from all subspecies versus the ones built only using African leopards. Finally, we used multivariate analysis to visualise the niche occupied by each subspecies in the climate space, and to compare niche overlaps to assess ecological differentiation. ResultsNiche comparisons and model predictions suggest a general lack of niche separation between all subspecies. Most Asian subspecies have overlapping niches and occupy subsets of the niche of the African leopard. Nevertheless, we found the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor to have the most distinct niche, giving some evidence for niche expansion in more Northern Asian subspecies. Main conclusionsThese results suggest little ecological differentiation among leopard subspecies and a lack of adaptation to novel climates after dispersal from Africa. This finding complements recent genetic studies in implying that the taxonomy of Asian leopards may not reflect biological differentiation, an issue that is important to resolve due to its relevance for the conservation of the species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Parental care drives the evolution of molecular genetic variation

Cooperative social behaviours, such as parental care, have long been hypothesized to relax selection leading to the accumulation of genetic variation in populations. Although the idea has been discussed for decades, there has been relatively little experimental work to investigate how social behaviour contributes to genetic variation in populations. Here, we investigate how parental care can shape molecular genetic variation in the subsocial insect Nicrophorus vespilloides. Using whole genome sequencing of populations that had evolved in the presence or absence of parental care for 30 generations, we show that parental care maintains levels of standing genetic variation. In contrast, under a harsh environment without care, strong directional selection caused a reduction in genetic variation. Furthermore, we show that adaptation to the loss of care is associated with genetic divergence between populations at loci related to stress, morphological development and transcriptional regulation. These data reveal how social behaviour is linked to the genetic processes that shape and maintain genetic diversity within populations, and provides rare empirical evidence for an old hypothesis. Lay SummarySocial behaviours, such as parental care, have long been hypothesized to result in the accumulation of genetic variation in populations. Here, we investigate how parental care can shape molecular genetic variation in a species that perform biparental care, Nicrophorus vespilloides. Using genome sequencing of populations that had evolved in the presence or absence of parental care for 30 generations, we show that parental care maintains levels of standing genetic variation. In contrast, under a harsh environment without care, populations lost genetic variation. Furthermore, we show that adaptation to the loss of care is associated with genetic divergence between populations at genes related to stress, morphological development and transcriptional regulation. These data reveal how social behaviour is linked to the genetic processes that shape and maintain genetic diversity within populations.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

pastclim: an R package to easily access and use paleoclimatic reconstructions

The recent development of continuous paleoclimatic reconstructions covering hundreds of thousands of years paved the way to a large number of studies from disciplines ranging from paleoecology to linguistics, from archaeology to conservation and from population genetics to human evolution. Unfortunately, such climatic data can be challenging to extract and analyze for scholars unfamiliar with such specific climatic file formats. Here we present pastclim, an R package facilitating the access and use of two sets of paleoclimatic reconstructions covering respectively the last 120,000 and 800,000 years. The package contains a set of functions allowing to quickly and easily recover the climate for the whole world or specific areas for time periods of interest, extract data from locations scattered in space and/or time, retrieve time series from individual sites, and easily manage the ice or land coverage. The package can easily be adapted to paleoclimatic reconstructions different from the ones already included, offering a handy platform to include the climate of the past into existing analyses and pipelines.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Climate and mountains shaped human ancestral genetic lineages

Extensive sequencing of modern and ancient human genomes has revealed that contemporary populations can be explained as the result of recent mixing of a few distinct ancestral genetic lineages1. But the small number of aDNA samples that predate the Last Glacial Maximum means that the origins of these lineages are not well understood. Here, we circumvent the limited sampling by modelling explicitly the effect of climatic changes and terrain on population demography and migrations through time and space, and show that these factors are sufficient to explain the divergence among ancestral lineages. Our reconstructions show that the sharp separation between African and Eurasian lineages is a consequence of only a few limited periods of connectivity through the arid Arabian peninsula, which acted as the gate out of the Arican continent. The subsequent spread across Eurasia was then mostly shaped by mountain ranges, and to a lesser extent deserts, leading to the split of European and Asians, and the further diversification of these two groups. A high tolerance to cold climates allowed the persistence at high latitudes even during the Last Glacial Maximum, maintaining a pocket in Beringia that led to the later, rapid colonisation of the Americas. The advent of food production was associated with an increase in movement2, but mountains and climate have been shown to still play a major role even in this latter period3,4, affecting the mixing of the ancestral lineages that we have shown to be shaped by those two factors in the first place.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2021

Population inter-connectivity over the past 120,000 years explains distribution and diversity of Central African hunter-gatherers

The evolutionary history of African hunter-gatherers holds key insights into modern human diversity. Here we combine ethnographic and genetic data on Central African hunter-gatherers (CAHG) to show that their current distribution and density is explained by ecology rather than by a displacement to marginal habitats due to recent farming expansions, as commonly assumed. We also predict hunter-gatherer presence across Central Africa over the past 120,000 years using paleoclimatic reconstructions, which were statistically validated by dated archaeological sites. Finally, we show that genomic estimates of separation times between CAHG groups match our ecological estimates of periods favouring population splits, and that recoveries of connectivity would have facilitated subsequent gene-flow. Our results reveal that CAHG stem from a deep history of partially connected populations. This form of sociality allowed the coexistence of relatively large effective population sizes and local differentiation, with important implications for the evolution of genetic and cultural diversity in Homo sapiens.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Metacommunity analyses show increase in ecological specialisation throughout the Ediacaran

The first animals appear during the late Ediacaran (572 - 541 Ma); an initial diversity increase was followed by a drop, interpreted as catastrophic mass extinction. We investigate the processes underlying these changes using the "Elements of Metacommunity Structure" framework. The oldest metacommunity was characterized by taxa with wide environmental tolerances, and limited specialisation and inter-taxa interactions. Structuring increased in the middle metacommunity, with groups of taxa sharing synchronous responses to environmental gradients, aggregating into distinct communities. This pattern strengthened in the youngest metacommunity, with communities showing strong environmental segregation and depth structure. Thus, metacommunity structure increased in complexity, with increased specialisation and resulting competitive exclusion, not a catastrophic environmental disaster, leading to diversity loss in the terminal Ediacaran, revealing that the complex eco-evolutionary dynamics associated with Cambrian diversification were established in the Ediacaran.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2021

Post-glacial expansion dynamics, not refugial isolation, shaped the genetic structure of a migratory bird, the Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia)

During the glacial periods of the Pleistocene, swathes of the Northern Hemisphere were covered by ice sheets, tundra, and permafrost, leaving large areas uninhabitable for temperate and boreal species. The glacial refugia paradigm proposes that, during glaciations, species living in the Northern Hemisphere were forced southwards, forming isolated populations that persisted in disjunct regions known as refugia. According to this hypothesis, as ice sheets retreated, species recolonised the continent from these glacial refugia, and the mixing of these lineages is responsible for modern patterns of genetic diversity. An alternative hypothesis is that complex genetic patterns could also arise simply from heterogenous post-glacial expansion dynamics, without separate refugia. Both mitochondrial and genomic data from the North American yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia) shows the presence of an eastern and western clade, a pattern often ascribed to the presence of two refugia. However, species distribution modelling (SDM) of the past range of this species fails to identify obvious refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a climate-informed spatial genetic modelling (CISGeM) framework, which allows us to integrate knowledge of past geographic ranges based on SDM, we reconstructed past population sizes, range expansions, and likely recolonisation dynamics of this species, generating spatially and temporally explicit demographic reconstructions. The model captures the empirical genetic structure despite including only a single, large glacial refugium. The observed contemporary population structure was generated during the expansion dynamics after the glaciation and is due to unbalanced rates of northward advance to the east and west linked to the melting of the icesheets. Thus, modern population structure in this species is consistent with expansion dynamics, and refugial isolation is not required to explain it, highlighting the importance of explicitly testing drivers of geographic structure. Significance statementPatterns of population differentiation in many species have often been attributed to the mixing of isolates from distinct refugia that formed during periods of glaciation, when range fragmentation was likely. By formally bringing together multiple lines of evidence, we demonstrate that the patterns of genetic diversity seen across the range of the yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia) were not the result of multiple isolated refugia. Instead, asymmetric expansion from a single cohesive range generated the observed patterns; the expansions asymmetry was due to the uneven melting of the icesheets over time. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of reconstructing species range dynamics when trying to explain patterns of genetic differentiation.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Humans hastened the range collapse and extinction of woolly mammoth

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early-stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Following the niche: reconstructing 32,000 years of niche dynamics in four European ungulate species

An understanding of how ecological niches can change through time is key to predicting the effect of future global change. Past climatic fluctuations provide a natural experiment to assess the extent to which species can change their niche. Here we use an extensive archaeological database to formally test whether the niche of four European ungulates changed between 40 and 8 kya (i.e. before major anthropogenic habitat modification and excluding the confounding effect of domestication). We find that niche change depended on habitat. Horse and aurochs, which are adapted to open environment, changed their niche after the Last Glacial Maximum, and it is unclear whether this was the result of adaptation, or an expansion of the realized niche as a response to the extinction of other megafauna (competitors and predators) that shared the same habitat preferences. On the other hand, red deer and wild boar, which prefer close and semi-close habitats, did not change their niche during the same period; possibly because these habitats have experienced fewer extinctions. Irrespective of the mechanism that might have led to the observed niche changes, the fact that large mammals with long generation times can change their niche over the time period of thousands of years cautions against assuming a constant niche when predicting the future. Significance statementWhen predicting species responses to future change, it is often assumed that their habitat preferences (i.e. their niche) will not change. However, it is strongly debated whether this is reasonable. Here we show that two out of four species of large European ungulates changed their niche following the Last Glacial Maximum, possibly as a response to the reorganization of animal communities that resulted from numerous megafauna extinctions. This finding cautions against the assumption of a constant niche, highlighting that, to predict the future, we will ultimately need to understand the mechanisms that underpin the success of a given species under different climatic conditions.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

A curated dataset of modern and ancient high-coverage shotgun human genomes.

Over the last few years, genome-wide data for a large number of ancient human samples have been collected. Whilst datasets of capture SNPs have been collated, high coverage shotgun genomes (which are relatively few but allow certain type of analyses not possible with ascertained captured SNPs) have to be reprocessed by individual groups from raw reads. This task is computationally intensive. Here, we release a dataset including 34 whole-genome sequenced samples, previously published and distributed worldwide, together with the genetic pipeline used to process them. The dataset contains 73,435,604 sites called across 18 ancient and 16 modern individuals and includes sequence data from four previously published ancient samples which we sequenced to higher coverage (10-18x). Such a resource will allow researchers to analyse their new samples with the same genetic pipeline and directly compare them to the reference dataset without re-processing published samples. Moreover, this dataset can be easily expanded to increase the sample distribution both across time and space.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

The genomic formation of First American ancestors in East and Northeast Asia

Upward Sun River 1, an individual from a unique burial of the Denali tradition in Alaska (11500 calBP), is considered a type representative of Ancient Beringians who split from other First Americans 22000-18000 calBP in Beringia. Using a new admixture graph model-comparison approach resistant to overfitting, we show that Ancient Beringians do not form the deepest American lineage, but instead harbor ancestry from a lineage more closely related to northern North Americans than to southern North Americans. Ancient Beringians also harbor substantial admixture from a lineage that did not contribute to other Native Americans: Amur River Basin populations represented by a newly reported site in northeastern China. Relying on these results, we propose a new model for the genomic formation of First American ancestors in Asia. One Sentence SummaryAncient Beringians do not form the deepest American lineage, but harbor admixture from Amur River Basin populations.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

AN ADMIXTURE SIGNAL IN ARMENIANS AROUND THE END OF THE BRONZE AGE REVEALS WIDESPREAD POPULATION MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST

The Armenians, a population inhabiting the region in West Asia known as the Armenian Highland, has been argued to show a remarkable degree of population continuity since the Early Neolithic. Here we test the degree of continuity of this population as well as its plausible origin, by collating modern and ancient genomic data, and adding a number of novel contemporary genomes. We show that Armenians have indeed remained unadmixed through the Neolithic and at least until the first part of the Bronze Age, and fail to find any support for historical suggestions by Herodotus of an input from the Balkans. However, we do detect a genetic input of Sardinian-like ancestry during or just after the Middle-Late Bronze Age. A similar input at approximately the same time was detected in East Africa, suggesting large-scale movement both North and South of the Middle East. Whether such large-scale population movement was a result of climatic or cultural changes is unclear, as well as the true source of gene flow remains an open question that needs to be addressed in future ancient DNA studies.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

mtDNAcombine: tools to combine sequences from multiple studies

Today an unprecedented amount of genetic sequence data is stored in publicly available repositories. For decades now, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has been the workhorse of genetic studies, and as a result, there is a large volume of mtDNA data available in these repositories for a wide range of species. Indeed, whilst whole genome sequencing is an exciting prospect for the future, for most non-model organisms classical markers such as mtDNA remain widely used. By compiling existing data from multiple original studies, it is possible to build powerful new datasets capable of exploring many questions in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. One key question that these data can help inform is what happened in a species demographic past. However, compiling data in this manner is not trivial, there are many complexities associated with data extraction, data quality and data handling. Here we present the mtDNAcombine package, a collection of tools developed to manage some of the major decisions associated with handling multi-study sequence data with a particular focus on preparing mtDNA data for Bayesian Skyline Plot demographic reconstructions.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2020

Windows out of Africa: A 300,000-year chronology of climatically plausible human contact with Eurasia

Whilst an African origin for Anatomically Modern Humans is well established 1, the timings of their expansions into Eurasia are the subject to heated debate, due to the scarcity of fossils and the lack of suitably old ancient DNA 2. Here, we estimate potential timings and routes out of Africa by deriving anthropologically and ecologically plausible precipitation requirements for human existence, and applying them to high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions for the past 300k years. We find that exit routes and timings previously suggested based on archaeological and genetic evidence coincide precisely with the presence of sufficiently wet corridors into Eurasia, while the gaps between the proposed exit timings co-occur with periods of insufficient rainfall. This demonstrates the key role that palaeoclimatic conditions played for out-of-Africa expansions. The challenging environmental conditions outside of Africa that occurred between windows of potential contact, coupled with the lack of a demographic rescue effect from migration and possible competition with other hominins, likely explain the demise of early colonists prior to the large-scale colonisation of the world beginning from [~]65kya.

evolutionary biology↗