bioRxiv2021
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has accumulated genomic mutations at an approximately linear rate since it first infected human populations in late 2019. Controversies remain regarding the identity, proportion, and effects of adaptive mutations as SARS-CoV-2 evolves from a bat-to a human-adapted virus. The potential for vaccine-escape mutations poses additional challenges in pandemic control. Despite being of great interest to therapeutic and vaccine development, human-adaptive mutations in SARS-CoV-2 are masked by a genome-wide linkage disequilibrium under which neutral and even deleterious mutations can reach fixation by chance or through hitchhiking. Furthermore, genome-wide linkage equilibrium imposes clonal interference by which multiple adaptive mutations compete against one another. Informed by insights from microbial experimental evolution, we analyzed close to one million SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and identified putative human-adaptive mutations according to the rates of synonymous and missense mutations, temporal linkage, and mutation recurrence. Furthermore, we developed a forward-evolution simulator with the realistic SARS-CoV-2 genome structure and base substitution probabilities able to predict viral genome diversity under neutral, background selection, and adaptive evolutionary models. We conclude that adaptive mutations have emerged early, rapidly, and constantly to dominate SARS-CoV-2 populations despite clonal interference and purifying selection. Our analysis underscores a need for genomic surveillance of mutation trajectories at the local level for early detection of adaptive and immune-escape variants. Putative human-adaptive mutations are over-represented in viral proteins interfering host immunity and binding host-cell receptors and thus may serve as priority targets for designing therapeutics and vaccines against human-adapted forms of SARS-CoV-2.