Biology subjects

Lord, J. S.

Publications and source records attributed to Lord, J. S..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe

Background Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.Methods Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.Results We produce estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (>1000 M.A.S.L), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.Conclusions The results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Assessing the effect of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse abundance and trypanosome transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface in Serengeti, Tanzania

In the absence of national control programmes against Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis, farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroid-based insecticides may be an effective strategy for foci at the edges of wildlife areas, but there is limited evidence to support this. We combined data on insecticide use by farmers, tsetse abundance and trypanosome prevalence with mathematical models to quantify the likely impact of insecticide-treated cattle. Sixteen percent of farmers reported treating cattle with a pyrethroid, and chemical analysis indicated 18% of individual cattle had been treated, in the previous week. Treatment of cattle was estimated to increase daily mortality of tsetse by 5 - 14%. Trypanosome prevalence in tsetse, predominantly from wildlife areas, was 1.25% for T. brucei s.l. and 0.03% for T. b. rhodesiense. For 750 cattle sampled from 48 herds, 2.3% were PCR positive for T. brucei s.l. and none for T. b. rhodesiense. Using mathematical models, we estimated there was 8 - 29% increase in mortality of tsetse in farming areas and this increase can explain the relatively low prevalence of T. brucei s.l. in cattle. Farmer-led treatment of cattle with pyrethroids is likely, in part, to be limiting the spill-over of human-infective trypanosomes from wildlife areas. Author summaryThe acute form of sleeping sickness in Africa is caused by the parasite Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense. It is transmitted by tsetse flies and can be maintained in cycles involving both livestock and wildlife as hosts. Humans are incidentally infected and are particularly at risk of infection near protected areas where there are both wildlife and suitable habitat for tsetse. In these regions, the tsetse vector cannot be eradicated, nor can infection be prevented in wildlife. Here we use field studies of tsetse and livestock in combination with mathematical models of tsetse population change and trypanosome transmission to show that use of pyrethroid-based insecticides on cattle by farmers at the edge of protected areas could be contributing to lowering the risk of sleeping sickness in Serengeti District, Tanzania. To our knowledge, our study is the first to report farmer-led tsetse control, co-incident with tsetse decline and relatively low prevalence of T. brucei s.l. in cattle.

ecology↗