Leyson, C. M. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Within-host antigenic selection of influenza A virus dominates over stochasticity but is limited by fitness tradeoffs and timing of the immune response

Despite antigenic evolution at the global scale, positive selection of influenza virus antigenic variants is not readily observed within hosts. Here, we tested the extent to which fitness tradeoffs, the timing of immune pressure, and stochastic effects impede antigenic selection within pre-immune hosts. We used genetically barcoded influenza A/Texas/50/2012 (H3N2) viruses (Tx/12) in a guinea pig model to probe these dynamics. Positive selection of an antigenic variant was reliant on a high strength of immune pressure acting early in infection. However, when fitness tradeoffs of the antigenic change were lessened, a lower strength and later introduction of immune pressure favored the antigenic variant. In all conditions, barcode dynamics revealed moderate stochastic effects. Our results suggest that stochastic evolution does not impede selection during acute influenza virus infection. The rarity of antigenic escape may instead stem from low mutational supply, fitness tradeoffs, and the intrinsic delay between infection and antibody recall.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

Within-host adaptive evolution is limited by genetic drift in experimental human influenza A virus infections

Selection of advantageous mutations drives the emergence of dominant variants during seasonal influenza epidemics. However, within-host detection of such variants remains rare, limiting our understanding of how selection operates at the scale of individual hosts. In this study, we used a controlled human infection model to examine the within-host evolutionary dynamics in thirteen participants intranasally infected with a seasonal H3N2 influenza A virus. Although this clinical trial is ongoing, our work represents a pre-planned, interim, exploratory analysis. Results in this system were contrasted with those observed in a ferret model of infection. The inoculum, used in both humans and ferrets, carried standing diversity that enabled evaluation of variant trajectories during infection. Although the dynamics were variable among participants, in humans, the minor variants in the PA and NP gene segments tended to increase in frequency as infection progressed. Variant dynamics were more consistent among ferrets but showed differences from humans in the fate of the minor NP allele. Based on these observations, we fit a population genetic model to longitudinal measurements of variant frequencies. Estimates of variant selection coefficients and effective viral population sizes indicated that in humans the two minor variants had a selective advantage over the major variants, but genetic drift was strong, limiting the efficiency of selection. In ferrets, the PA minor variant also was estimated to have a selective advantage, while the NP minor variant was estimated to have a selective disadvantage. Moreover, effective viral population sizes were estimated to be considerably higher in ferrets than in humans, indicating that genetic drift was weaker in ferrets. Our analyses reveal differing selective environments acting on influenza viruses in human and ferret hosts and indicate that selection at the within-host level is weakened by genetic drift.

microbiology↗