Biology subjects

Lewnard, J. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Lewnard, J. A..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Serotype association with neonatal invasive potential, disease manifestation, and clinical outcome in group B Streptococcus: A Bayesian analysis

BackgroundCase-carrier ratios quantifying the relative pathogenicity of serotypes can inform vaccine formulations for antigenically-diverse pathogens. However, sparse serotype-specific counts in epidemiologic datasets may undermine such analyses, most notably for rare serotypes that pose emergence risks in vaccinated populations. This challenge is well-illustrated in Group B streptococcus (GBS), where serotype III dominates in both carriage and disease.\n\nMethodsWe develop an empirical Bayes random-effects model based on conjugate Dirichlet-multinomial distributions of serotype frequencies in carriage and disease states. We validate the model using simulated datasets, and apply it to data from 15 paired sets of GBS isolates from intrapartum rectovaginal colonization (n=3403) and neonatal invasive disease (NID; n=1088), 16 from blood (n=2352) and cerebrospinal fluid (n=780) neonatal specimens, and 3 from fatal (n=173) and non-fatal (n=1684) neonatal invasive infections.\n\nResultsOur method accurately recovers parameters in simulated datasets. Using this approach, we confirm that GBS serotype III exhibits the greatest invasiveness, followed by serotype Ia with a 75.3% (95%CrI: 43.7-93.8%) lower estimate. Enhanced invasiveness of serotypes III and Ia is most evident in late-onset disease. Non-hexavalent-vaccine serotypes, which are rare in carriage and disease, generally show lower invasiveness; serotype IX/non-typeable GBS, the most prevalent cause of non-vaccine-preventable disease, is 98.7% (81.7-99.9%) and 94.2% (13.9-99.6%) less invasive than serotypes III and Ia, respectively.\n\nConclusionsWe present a strategy for measuring associations of serotype with carrier and disease states in the presence of sparse counts, avoiding biases that exist in common ad-hoc approaches.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Co-circulating mumps lineages at multiple geographic scales

Despite widespread vaccination, eleven thousand mumps cases were reported in the United States (US) in 2016-17, including hundreds in Massachusetts, primarily in college settings. We generated 203 whole genome mumps virus (MuV) sequences from Massachusetts and 15 other states to understand the dynamics of mumps spread locally and nationally, as well as to search for variants potentially related to vaccination. We observed multiple MuV lineages circulating within Massachusetts during 2016-17, evidence for multiple introductions of the virus to the state, and extensive geographic movement of MuV within the US on short time scales. We found no evidence that variants arising during this outbreak contributed to vaccine escape. Combining epidemiological and genomic data, we observed multiple co-circulating clades within individual universities as well as spillover into the local community. Detailed data from one well-sampled university allowed us to estimate an effective reproductive number within that university significantly greater than one. We also used publicly available small hydrophobic (SH) gene sequences to estimate migration between world regions and to place this outbreak in a global context, but demonstrate that these short sequences, historically used for MuV genotyping, are inadequate for tracing detailed transmission. Our findings suggest continuous, often undetected, circulation of mumps both locally and nationally, and highlight the value of combining genomic and epidemiological data to track viral disease transmission at high resolution.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Heterogeneous susceptibility to rotavirus infection and gastroenteritis in two birth cohort studies: parameter estimation and epidemiological implications

Variation in susceptibility is a known contributor to bias in studies estimating immune protection acquired from vaccination or natural infection. However, difficulty measuring this heterogeneity hinders assessment of its influence on estimates. Cohort studies, randomized trials, and post-licensure studies have reported reduced natural and vaccine-derived protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We sought to understand differences in susceptibility among children enrolled in two birth-cohort studies of rotavirus in LMICs, and to explore the implications for estimation of immune protection. We re-analyzed data from studies conducted in Mexico City, Mexico and Vellore, India. Cumulatively, 573 unvaccinated children experienced 1418 rotavirus infections and 371 episodes of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) over 17,636 child-months. We developed a model characterizing susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE among children, accounting for aspects of the natural history of rotavirus and differences in transmission rates between settings, and tested whether modelgenerated susceptibility measurements were associated with demographic and anthropometric factors. We identified greater variation in susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE in Vellore than in Mexico City. In both cohorts, susceptibility to rotavirus infection and RVGE were associated with male sex, lower birth weight, lower maternal education, and having fewer siblings; within Vellore, susceptibility was also associated with lower socioeconomic status. Children who were more susceptible to rotavirus also experienced higher rates of diarrhea due to other causes. Simulations suggest that discrepant estimates of naturally-acquired immunity against RVGE can be attributed, in part, to between-setting differences in transmission intensity and susceptibility of children. We found that more children in Vellore than in Mexico City belong to a high-risk group for rotavirus infection and RVGE, and demonstrate that bias owing to differences in rotavirus transmission intensity and population susceptibility may hinder comparison of estimated immune protection against RVGE.\n\nAuthor summaryDifferences in susceptibility can help explain why some individuals, and not others, acquire infection and exhibit symptoms when exposed to infectious disease agents. However, it is difficult to distinguish between differences in susceptibility versus exposure in epidemiological studies. We developed a modeling approach to distinguish transmission intensity and susceptibility in data from cohort studies of rotavirus infection among children in Mexico City, Mexico, and Vellore, India, and evaluated how these factors may have contributed to differences in estimates of naturally-acquired immune protection between the studies. We found that more children were at \"high risk\" of acquiring rotavirus infection, and of experiencing gastroenteritis when infected, in Vellore versus Mexico City. The probability of belonging to this high-risk stratum was associated with recognized risk factors such as lower socioeconomic status, lower birth weight, and risk of diarrhea due to other causes. We also found the risk for rotavirus infections to cause symptoms declined with age, and was independent of acquired immunity. Together, these findings can account for estimates of lower protective efficacy of acquired immunity against rotavirus gastroenteritis in high-incidence settings, which mirrors estimates of reduced effectiveness of live oral rotavirus vaccines in low- and middle-income countries.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Effect of antimicrobial treatment for acute otitis media on carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae with reduced susceptibility to penicillin in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BackgroundConcerns that antimicrobial treatment may foster selection and transmission of resistant bacterial lineages have led to conflicting guidelines for clinical management of common non-severe infections. However, the impact of antimicrobial treatment on colonization dynamics is poorly understood. We used data from a previously-conducted trial of amoxicillin-clavulanate therapy for acute otitis media (AOM) to understand how antimicrobial treatment impacts the acquisition and clearance of Streptococcus pneumoniae lineages with varying susceptibility to penicillin.\n\nMethods and findingsWe measured impacts of antimicrobial treatment on nasopharyngeal carriage of penicillin-susceptible S. pneumoniae (PSSP) and penicillin-non-susceptible S. pneumoniae (PNSP) lineages at end-of-treatment and 15d, 30d, and 60d after treatment in a previously-conducted randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Analyses were not specified in the original protocol. Among children 6-35 months of age with stringently-defined AOM, 162 were assigned amoxicillin-clavulanate, and 160 were assigned placebo. Children who did not show clinical improvement received open-label antimicrobial rescue treatment with amoxicillin-clavulanate irrespective of the randomized treatment assignment, to which both patients and physicians were blinded. The intention-to-treat populations of the intervention and placebo arms thus received care resembling immediate antimicrobial therapy and watchful waiting, respectively. Immediate amoxicillin-clavulanate reduced PSSP carriage prevalence by 88% (95%CI: 76-96%) at end-of-treatment and by 27% (-3-49%) after 60d, but did not measurably alter PNSP carriage prevalence throughout follow-up. By end-of-treatment, 7% of children who carried PSSP at enrollment remained colonized in the amoxicillin-clavulanate arm, compared to 61% of PSSP carriers who received placebo; differences in carriage prevalence persisted at least 60d after treatment among children who carried PSSP at enrollment. Among children not carrying pneumococci at enrollment, amoxicillin-clavulanate reduced PSSP acquisition by >80% over 15d. Among children who carried PNSP at enrollment, no differences in carriage prevalence of S. pneumoniae, PSSP, or PNSP were detected at follow-up visits.\n\nConclusionsIn a setting with low PNSP prevalence, antimicrobial therapy for AOM conferred a selective impact on colonizing S. pneumoniae by accelerating clearance, and delaying acquisition, of penicillin-susceptible lineages. Absolute risk of carrying PNSP was unaffected by treatment (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00299455; Funding: NIH/NIGMS).

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Quantifying biases in test-negative studies of vaccine effectiveness

Test-negative designs have become commonplace in assessments of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness. Vaccine effectiveness is measured from the exposure odds ratio (OR) of vaccination among individuals seeking treatment for acute respiratory illness and receiving a laboratory test for influenza infection. This approach is widely believed to correct for differential healthcare-seeking behavior among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. However, the relation of the measured OR to true vaccine effectiveness is poorly understood. We derive the OR under circumstances of real-world test-negative studies. The OR recovers the true vaccine direct effect when two conditions are met: (1) that individuals vaccination decisions are uncorrelated with exposure or susceptibility to infection, and (2) that vaccination confers \"all-or-nothing\" protection (whereby certain individuals have no protection while others are perfectly protected). Biased effect size estimates arise if either condition is unmet. Such bias may suggest misleading associations of the OR with time since vaccination or the force of infection of influenza. The test-negative design may also fail to correct for differential healthcare-seeking behavior among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons without stringent criteria for enrollment and testing. Our findings demonstrate a need to reassess how data from test-negative studies are interpreted for policy decisions conventionally based on causal inferences.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Pneumococcal phenotype and interaction with nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae as determinants of otitis media progression

BackgroundAll-cause otitis media (OM) incidence has declined in numerous settings following introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) despite increases in carriage of non-vaccine pneumococcal serotypes escaping immune pressure. To understand the basis for declining incidence, we assessed the intrinsic capacity of pneumococcal serotypes to cause OM independently and in polymicrobial infections involving nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) using samples obtained from middle ear fluid and nasopharyngeal cultures before PCV7/13 rollout.\n\nMethodsData included OM episodes (11,811) submitted for cultures during a 10-year prospective study in southern Israel and nasopharyngeal samples (1588) from unvaccinated asymptomatic children in the same population. We compared pneumococcal serotype diversity across carriage and disease isolates with and without NTHi co-isolation. We also measured associations between pneumococcal phenotype and rate of progression from colonization to OM in the presence and absence of NTHi.\n\nResultsWhereas pneumococcal serotype diversity in single-species OM is lower than in single-species colonization, serotype diversity does not differ significantly between colonization and OM in mixed-species episodes. Serotypes differed roughly 100-fold in progression rates, and these differences were attenuated in polymicrobial episodes. Vaccine-serotype pneumococci had higher rates of progression than non-vaccine serotypes. While serotype invasiveness was a weak predictor of OM progression rate, efficient capsular metabolic properties--traditionally thought to serve as an advantage in colonization--predicted an enhanced rate of progression to complex OM.\n\nConclusionsThe lower capacity of non-vaccine serotypes to cause OM may partially account for reductions in all-cause OM incidence despite serotype replacement in carriage following rollout of PCVs.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Vaccine waning and mumps re-emergence in the United States

Following decades of declining mumps incidence amid widespread vaccination, the United States and other high-income countries have experienced a resurgence in mumps cases over the last decade. Outbreaks affecting vaccinated individuals--and communities with high vaccine coverage--have prompted concerns about the effectiveness of the live attenuated vaccine currently in use: it is unclear if immune protection wanes, or if the vaccine protects inadequately against mumps virus lineages currently circulating. Synthesizing data from epidemiological studies, we estimate that vaccine-derived protection wanes at a timescale of 27 (95%CI: 16 to 51) years. After accounting for this waning, we identify no evidence of changes in vaccine effectiveness over time associated with the emergence of heterologous virus genotypes. Moreover, a mathematical model of mumps transmission validates our findings about the central role of vaccine waning in the re-emergence of cases: outbreaks from 2006 to the present among young adults, and outbreaks occurring in the late 1980s and early 1990s among adolescents, align with peaks in the susceptibility of these age groups attributable to loss of vaccine-derived protection. In contrast, evolution of mumps virus strains escaping pressure would be expected to cause a higher proportion of cases among children. Routine use of a third dose at age 18y, or booster dosing throughout adulthood, may enable mumps elimination and should be assessed in clinical trials.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryThe estimated waning rate of vaccine-conferred immunity against mumps predicts observed changes in the age distribution of mumps cases in the United States since 1967.

epidemiology↗