Biology subjects

Leon, T. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Leon, T. M..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Eliminating Aedes aegypti from its southern margin in Australia: insights from genomic data and simulation modeling

A rare example of a successful long-term elimination of the mosquito Aedes aegypti is in Brisbane, Queensland, where the legislatively-enforced removal of rainwater tanks drove its disappearance by the mid-1950s. However, a decade-long drought led to the mass installation of rainwater tanks throughout the region, re-introducing critical breeding sites for the mosquitos persistence in this subtropical region. With Ae. aegypti re-invading towns just 150 km north of Brisbane, we examined the potential for their sustained elimination. Through genomic analyses, we estimated historical expansion and current isolation between neighboring populations as close as 15 kilometers. The estimated recent migration rate, entomological and meteorological data were used to calibrate the simulations of elimination campaigns in the two southernmost populations. Our simulations indicate that Ae. aegypti could be eliminated with moderate release numbers of incompatible Wolbachia-infected (IIT) males (sorted with an error rate [≤]10-6) if non-compliant rainwater tanks are removed first. With this combined campaign, highly effective suppression (>99%) was predicted in both towns, and complete elimination was predicted in 35% of simulations in one town. Without tank removal, however, IIT led to a moderate suppression (61-93%) even with a 40:1 ratio of released IIT males to local males. Moreover, with a ratio of >20:1, Wolbachia establishment was predicted when the sorting error was >10-7. Our conservative estimates of intervention outcomes inform the planning of Ae. aegypti elimination in the region, and offer insight into the effective combinations of conventional and novel control tools, particularly for vulnerable mosquito populations at range margins. SignificanceAfter decades of range stagnation in Australia, the Aedes aegypti mosquito is expanding southward, approaching the most-densely-populated areas of Queensland. Using population genomics and simulation modeling of elimination campaigns, we show that Australias southernmost populations of this disease vector are genetically isolated and could be eliminated with moderate releases of incompatible Wolbachia-infected males if major larval breeding sites (non-compliant rainwater tanks) are removed first. The risk of Wolbachia establishment for this approach is low, and so is the risk of quick mosquito re-invasion. Our conservative estimates of intervention outcomes inform the planning of Ae. aegypti elimination in the region, and offer new insight into the benefits of combining conventional and novel control tools, particularly for mosquito populations at range margins.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Household-Level Risk Factors for Aedes aegypti Pupal Density in Guayaquil, Ecuador

BackgroundVector-borne diseases are a major cause of disease burden in Guayaquil, Ecuador, especially arboviruses spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Understanding which household characteristics and risk factors lead to higher Ae. aegypti densities and consequent disease risk can help inform and optimize vector control programs. MethodsCross-sectional entomological surveys were conducted in Guayaquil between 2013 and 2016, covering household demographics, municipal services, potential breeding containers, presence of Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae, and history of using mosquito control methods. A zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was fitted to data for estimating the household pupal index. An additional model assessed the factors of the most productive breeding sites across all of the households. ResultsOf surveyed households, 610 satisfied inclusion criteria. The final household-level model found that collection of large solid items (e.g., furniture and tires) and rainfall the week of and 2 weeks before collection were negatively correlated with average pupae per container, while bed canopy use, unemployment, container water volume, and the interaction between large solid collection and rainfall 2 weeks before the sampling event were positively correlated. Selection of these variables across other top candidate models with {Delta}AICc < 1 was robust, with the strongest effects from large solid collection and bed canopy use. The final container-level model explaining the characteristics of breeding sites found that contaminated water is positively correlated with Ae. aegypti pupae counts while breeding sites composed of car parts, furniture, sewerage parts, vases, ceramic material, glass material, metal material, and plastic material were all negatively correlated. ConclusionHaving access to municipal services like bulky item pickup was effective at reducing mosquito proliferation in households. Association of bed canopy use with higher mosquito densities is unexpected, and may be a consequence of large local mosquito populations or due to limited use or effectiveness of other vector control methods. The impact of rainfall on mosquito density is multifaceted, as it may both create new habitat and "wash out" existing habitat. Providing services and social/technical interventions focused on monitoring and eliminating productive breeding sites is important for reducing aquatic-stage mosquito densities in households at risk for Ae. aegypti-transmitted diseases.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

MGDrivE 2: A simulation framework for gene drive systems incorporating seasonality and epidemiological dynamics

O_LIInterest in gene drive technology has continued to grow as promising new drive systems have been developed in the lab and discussions are moving towards implementing field trials. The prospect of field trials requires models that incorporate a significant degree of ecological detail, including parameters that change over time in response to environmental data such as temperature and rainfall, leading to seasonal patterns in mosquito population density. Epidemiological outcomes are also of growing importance, as: i) the suitability of a gene drive construct for release will depend on its expected impact on disease transmission, and ii) initial field trials are expected to have a measured entomological outcome and a modeled epidemiological outcome. C_LIO_LIWe present MGDrivE 2 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 2): an extension of and development from the MGDrivE 1 simulation framework that investigates the population dynamics of a variety of gene drive architectures and their spread through spatially-explicit mosquito populations. Key strengths and improvements of the MGDrivE 2 framework are: i) the ability of parameters to vary with time and induce seasonal population dynamics, ii) an epidemiological module accommodating reciprocal pathogen transmission between humans and mosquitoes, and iii) an implementation framework based on stochastic Petri nets that enables efficient model formulation and flexible implementation. C_LIO_LIExample MGDrivE 2 simulations are presented to demonstrate the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based homing gene drive system intended to drive a disease-refractory gene into a population, incorporating time-varying temperature and rainfall data, and predict impact on human disease incidence and prevalence. Further documentation and use examples are provided in vignettes at the projects CRAN repository. C_LIO_LIMGDrivE 2 is an open-source R package freely available on CRAN. We intend the package to provide a flexible tool capable of modeling gene drive constructs as they move closer to field application and to infer their expected impact on disease transmission. C_LI

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2019

Hydrology-informed metapopulation modeling of liver fluke transmission in the Lawa Lake complex of northeast Thailand

While hydrologic processes are intuitively understood to influence transmission dynamics of water-related diseases, limited research exists that explicitly links hydrologic and infectious disease data. In the case of the life cycle of liver flukes, hydrology influences several transmission processes that mediate infection risk for multiple hosts. Northeast Thailand is a hotspot for liver fluke transmission and has strong seasonal flooding patterns. A metapopulation model linking local hydrologic processes with transmission of the liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini in a lake system in northeast Thailand was developed and parameterized using infection data from 2008-2016. A rainfall-runoff model and other hydrologic data were used to assess level of connectivity between villages and the influence of upstream communities on parasite distribution in the study area. Disease transmission was modeled with metapopulations representing six village clusters around the lake using known prevalence data from humans, cats and dogs, snails, and fish. The metapopulation model improved upon the single-village model in its match to historical data patterns for the six village clusters with the introduction of the new time-variable parameters. Results suggest there are three unique hydrologic-epidemiologic regimes within the Lawa Lake system in response to upstream watersheds and risk of overland flooding that contribute to risk for O. viverrini infection. While available data may be insufficient to specifically characterize exact transmission dynamics, the practical implications of such findings are the importance of addressing connectivity for any intermediate host-based intervention. Similar approaches using hydrologic data to assess the impacts of water on pathogen transmission dynamics and inform mechanistic disease transmission models could be applied across other water-related disease systems.

epidemiology↗