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Laran, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Laran, S..

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Spatial integrated models foster complementarity between monitoring programs in producing large-scale ecological indicators

Over the last decades, large-scale ecological projects have emerged that require collecting ecological data over broad spatial and temporal coverage. Yet, obtaining relevant information about large-scale population dynamics from a single monitoring program is challenging, and often several sources of data, possibly heterogeneous, need to be integrated. In this context, integrated models combine multiple data types into a single analysis to quantify population dynamics of a targeted population. When working at large geographical scales, integrated spatial models have the potential to produce spatialised ecological estimates that would be difficult to obtain if data were analysed separately. In this paper, we illustrate how spatial integrated modelling offers a relevant framework for conducting ecological inference at large scales. Focusing on the Mediterranean bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), we combined 21,464 km of photo-identification boat surveys collecting spatial capture-recapture data with 24,624 km of aerial line-transect following a distance-sampling protocol. We analysed spatial capture-recapture data together with distance-sampling data to estimate abundance and density of bottlenose dolphins. We compared the performances of the distance sampling model and the spatial capture-recapture model fitted independently, to our integrated spatial model. The outputs of our spatial integrated models inform bottlenose dolphin ecological status in the French Mediterranean Sea and provide ecological indicators that are required for regional scale ecological assessments like the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. We argue that integrated spatial models are widely applicable and relevant to conservation research and biodiversity assessment at large spatial scales.

ecology

Prospective modelling of operational offshore windfarms on the distribution of marine megafauna in the southern North Sea

Intense development of Offshore Wind Farms (OFWs) has occurred in the North Sea with several more farms planned for the near future. These OFWs pose a threat to marine megafauna stressing the need to mitigate the impact of human activities. To help mitigating impacts, the Before After Gradient (BAG) design was proposed. We thus explored the use of the BAG method on megafauna sightings recorded at different distances from wind farms in the southern North Sea. We predicted intra-annual variability in species distribution, then correlated species distribution with the presence of operational OFWs and investigated the potential impact the operation of prospective OFWs may have on species distribution. Three patterns of intra-annual variability were predicted: species present most abundantly in spring, in winter or all year-round. We recommend that future OFW constructions be planned in summer and early fall to minimise impact on cetaceans and that offshore areas off northern France and Belgium be avoided to minimise impact on seabirds. Our prospective analysis predicted an increased or a decreased density with the operation of prospective OFWs. Prospective approaches, using e.g. a BAG design, are paramount to inform species conservation as they can forecast the likely responses of megafauna to anthropogenic disturbances.

ecology