Genomic indicators of risk and resilience in global leatherback turtle populations
Understanding the drivers of genomic health and their consequences for population viability is often overlooked but potentially important to effective conservation amidst the biodiversity crisis of the Anthropocene. Leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) populations have declined globally due to anthropogenic factors, with some populations losing over 90% of their abundance over the past 30-50 years. While conservation efforts have been successful in stabilizing some populations, others continue to decline, and the reasons for these differential trajectories remain unclear. To assess how recent demographic factors, such as population size and decline, influence population genomic health, we combined population monitoring information with medium depth whole-genome and reduced representation resequencing data from globally representative populations. We found that small-stable populations have lower genomic diversity and higher inbreeding than large declining populations, reflecting prolonged small population sizes and limited gene flow. Yet, small-stable populations also show evidence of deleterious allele purging, suggesting genetic resilience. This, combined with lack of detectable genomic erosion over the study period, provides hope for potential recovery of healthy leatherback populations provided that anthropogenic threats are effectively mitigated. However, potential time lags and possible recent increases in inbreeding among close relatives in recently declined populations warrant continued monitoring and assessment. Genomic and abundance-based metrics were less aligned following rapid population declines, emphasizing the different timescales of the evolutionary and demographic processes they reflect, respectively, and the strength in their complementary, integrative use for extinction risk assessments. This also supports that it is not too late to turn the tide for recently declined leatherback populations and that continued investment in conservation efforts and threat reductions are warranted. Collectively, our results highlight how recent and historical demography shapes current genomic health and recovery potential in leatherback turtles, aids understanding of current risks and informs future conservation and management strategies.