Kushnir, A. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Model-free inference of evolution from allele frequency timeseries using permutation tests

Allele frequency (AF) timeseries allow us to directly observe the dynamics of evolution at a genetic level. However, extracting useful inferences from AF timeseries has proved difficult due to the model uncertainties and noisiness inherent in AF change at fine temporal scales. Here we present three new permutation tests -- which do not assume a model of evolutionary change or a parametric statistical model -- to detect AF timeseries features of evolutionary interest. The features identified by these approaches are: 1) any evolutionary change (as opposed to apparent change due to measurement error); 2) directional selection; 3) fluctuating selection with a propensity to change sign (negative autocorrelation). We are not aware of existing tests for features 1 and 3. Feature 2 is commonly tested using standard evolutionary models such as the Wright-Fisher; we show that the permutation approach has comparable statistical power. We apply our new approaches to AF timeseries data from D. melanogaster and D. pulex.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Dynamics of the distribution of fitness effects during adaptation

Mutations drive adaptive evolution due to their heritable effects on fitness. Empirical measures of the distribution of fitness effects of new mutations (the DFE) have been increasingly successful, and have recently highlighted the fact that the DFE changes during adaptation. Here, we analyze these dynamic changes to the DFE during a simplified adaptive process: an adaptive walk across additive and multiplicative fitness landscapes. First, we derive analytical approximations for the underlying fitness distributions of alleles present in the genotype and available through mutation and use these to derive expressions for the DFE at each step of the adaptive walk. We then confirm these predictions with independent simulations that relax several simplifying assumptions made in the analysis. As expected, our analysis predicts that as adaptation proceeds, the DFE is reshaped through an increase in deleterious mutations (a shift to the left). Surprisingly, this change occurs through different mechanisms depending on the number of alleles available per site: for a small number of available alleles, we observe a depletion of high-fitness alleles available through mutation as expected, however for a large number of alleles we observe that adaptation may be more limited by the availability of low-fitness alleles to be replaced, rather than by the availability of high-fitness alleles to replace them.

evolutionary biology↗