Biology subjects

Kummer, A. G.

Publications and source records attributed to Kummer, A. G..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Short-term forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance to enhance mosquito control situational awareness

Conventional mosquito surveillance typically relies on contemporaneous data, making it challenging to anticipate future vector surges. To support proactive vector management, this study evaluates a multi-model forecasting framework designed to generate probabilistic 1-to 4-week-ahead forecasts of Aedes aegypti relative abundance per trap night. The framework was validated using multi-year surveillance data across four US jurisdictions spanning varied environments (from subtropical to temperate and arid). We found that an ensemble approach aggregating statistical and machine learning models generally achieved the best performance across all locations and forecast horizons. Relative forecast performance improved as the forecast horizon extended from 1 to 4 weeks ahead. The most challenging data to forecast were primarily restricted to low mosquito activity periods or atypical population peaks with unusual timing or magnitude. While full integration into routine vector management workflows represents a long-term process requiring operational adaptation, this work advances forecasting research and establishes a baseline for translating these approaches into real-time applications for public health authorities, with downstream effects in mitigating the risks of mosquito-borne diseases.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Evaluating Field Trial Designs for Genetically Modified Mosquito Interventions: An In-Silico Simulation Approach

Mosquito control strategies based on the mass release of modified males, such as genetically modified mosquitoes (GMMs), aim to suppress wild populations by impairing reproduction. Evaluating these interventions requires resource-intensive field trials, but a lack of standardized implementation practices, particularly regarding release ratios of modified males to wild female mosquitoes and trial timing, has led to variable outcomes. This studys objective is to propose a modeling tool for the "in-silico" simulation of trial designs before field implementation. To this aim, we developed an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics. As a case study, we calibrated the model using 2019-2023 Aedes aegypti surveillance data from Miami-Dade County, Florida, and compared two GMM trial designs as illustrative examples. Our results show that depending on the implementation choices (e.g., trial start date and duration, release ratio), trials yield highly variable outcomes. For example, changing the start date while fixing all other implementation details can lead to effectiveness between 50% and 90%. Our findings suggest that "in-silico" simulation is a valuable tool for improving trial protocol design, allowing stakeholders to test strategies and reduce outcome uncertainty before committing to a fieldwork experiment.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Diel activity patterns of vector mosquito species in the urban environment: Implications for vector control strategies

Florida and Texas continue to be afflicted by mosquito-borne disease outbreaks such as dengue and West Nile virus disease and were the most affected states by the Zika outbreak of 2016-2017. Mathematical models have been widely used to study the population dynamics of mosquitoes as well as to test and validate the effectiveness of arbovirus outbreak responses and mosquito control strategies. The objective of this study is to assess the diel activity of mosquitoes in Miami-Dade, Florida and Brownsville, Texas, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated adulticide treatments on local mosquito populations. To assess variations in the diel activity patterns, mosquitoes were collected hourly for 96 hours once a month from May through November 2019 in Miami-Dade and Brownsville, Texas. We then performed a PERMANOVA followed by the SIMPER method to assess which species contributed the most to the observed differences. Finally, we used a mathematical model to simulate the population dynamics of 5 mosquito vector species to evaluate the effectiveness of the simulated adulticide applications. A total of 14,502 mosquitoes comprising 17 species were collected in Brownsville and 10,948 mosquitoes comprising 19 species were collected in Miami-Dade. Aedes aegypti was the most common mosquito species collected every hour in both cities and peaking in abundance in the morning and the evening. Our modeling results indicate that the effectiveness of adulticide applications varied greatly depending on the hour of the treatment. Overall, 9 PM was the best time for adulticide applications targeting all mosquito vector species in Miami-Dade and Brownsville. Our results indicate that the timing of adulticide spraying interventions should be carefully considered by local authorities based on the ecology of mosquito species in the focus area.

ecology↗