The evolutionary and molecular history of a chikungunya virus outbreak lineage
In 2018-2019, Thailand experienced a nationwide spread of chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with approximately 15,000 confirmed cases of disease reported. Here, we investigated the evolutionary and molecular history of the East/Central/South African (ECSA) genotype to determine the origins of the 2018-2019 CHIKV outbreak in Thailand. This was done using newly sequenced clinical samples from travellers returning to Sweden from Thailand in late 2018 and early 2019 and previously published genome sequences. Our phylogeographic analysis showed that before the outbreak in Thailand, the Indian Ocean lineage (IOL) found within the ESCA, had evolved and circulated in East Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia for about 15 years. In the first half of 2017, an introduction occurred into Thailand from another South Asian country, most likely Bangladesh, which subsequently developed into a large outbreak in Thailand with export to neighbouring countries. Based on comparative phylogenetic analyses of the complete CHIKV genome and protein modelling, we also identified amino acid substitutions that may be associated with immune evasion, increased spread, and virulence. We identified several mutations in the E1/E2 spike complex, such as E1 K211E and E2 V264A, which are highly relevant as they may lead to changes in vector competence, transmission efficiency and pathogenicity of the virus. A number of mutations (E2 G205S, Nsp3 D372E, Nsp2 V793A), that emerged shortly before the outbreak of the virus in Thailand in 2018 may have altered antibody binding and recognition due to their position. This study not only improves our understanding of the factors contributing to the epidemic in Southeast Asia, but also has implications for the development of effective response strategies and the potential development of new vaccines. Author SummaryWe investigated the evolutionary and molecular history of the East/Central/South African (ECSA) genotype to determine the origins of the 2018-2019 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak in Thailand. We used newly sequenced clinical samples from travellers returning to Sweden from Thailand in late 2018 and early 2019 together with previously published genome sequences. Our phylogeographic analysis shows that the Indian Ocean lineage (IOL), found within ECSA, evolved in Eastern Africa, Southern Asia, and Southeast Asia for about 15 years before the outbreak in Thailand in 2018. We have also identified amino acid substitutions that may be associated with immune evasion, increased spread, and higher virulence that occurred prior to the outbreak and may have played a critical role in the rapid spread of the virus. Our study concludes that monitoring and understanding CHIKV dynamics remains critical for an effective response to the previously unpredictable outbreaks of the virus.