Kowarik, I. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Halfway to self-sustainability: Reintroduced migratory European Northern Bald Ibises (Geronticus eremita) still need management interventions for population viability

Northern Bald Ibis (NBI) have disappeared from Europe already in Middle Age. Since 2003 a migratory population is reintroduced in Central Europe. We conducted demographic analyses of survival and reproduction of 384 NBI over a period of 12 years (2008-2019). These data also formed the basis for a population viability analysis (PVA) simulating the possible future development of the NBI population in different scenarios. We tested life-stage specific survival rates for differences between these stages, raising types and colonies as well as the influence of stochastic events and NBI supplements on the population growth. Stage specific survival rates ranged from 0.64 to 0.78. 61% of the mature females reproduce with a mean fecundity of 2.15 fledglings per nest. The complementary PVA indicated that the release population is close to self-sustainability with a given lambda 0.95 and 24% extinction probability within 50 years. Of the 326 future scenarios tested, 94 % reached the criteria of <5% extinction probability and population growth rates >1. In case of positive population growth, stochastic events had a limited effect. Of 820 sub-scenarios with different stochastic event frequencies and severities 87 % show population growth despite the occurrence of stochastic events. Predictions can be made based on the results of the individual-based model as to whether and under what circumstances the reintroduced NBI population can survive. This study shows that a PVA can support reintroduction success that should work closely together with the project in the field for mutual benefit, to optimize future management decisions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

A multidimensional framework for measuring biotic novelty: How novel is a community?

Anthropogenic changes in climate, land use and disturbance regimes, as well as introductions of non-native species can lead to the transformation of many ecosystems. The resulting novel ecosystems are usually characterized by species assemblages that have not occurred previously in a given area. Quantifying the ecological novelty of communities (i.e. biotic novelty) would enhance the understanding of environmental change. However, quantification remains challenging since current novelty metrics, such as the number and/or proportion of non-native species in a community, fall short of considering both functional and evolutionary aspects of biotic novelty. Here, we propose the Biotic Novelty Index (BNI), an intuitive and flexible multidimensional measure that combines (1) functional differences between native and non-native introduced species with (2) temporal dynamics of species introductions. We show that the BNI is an additive partition of Raos quadratic entropy, capturing the novel interaction component of the communitys functional diversity. Simulations show that the index varies predictably with the relative amount of functional novelty added by recently arrived species, and they illustrate the need to provide an additional standardized version of the index. We present a detailed R-code and two applications of the BNI by (1) measuring changes of biotic novelty of dry grassland plant communities along an urbanization gradient in a metropolitan region and (2) determining the biotic novelty of plant species assemblages at a national scale. Results illustrate the applicability of the index across scales and its flexibility in the use of data of different quality. Both case studies revealed strong connections between biotic novelty and increasing urbanization, a measure of abiotic novelty. We conclude that the BNI framework may help in building a basis for a better understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences of global change.

ecology↗