Biology subjects

Kaschner, K.

Publications and source records attributed to Kaschner, K..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

AquaX: An enhanced and revised AquaMaps framework to model marine species distributions and biodiversity

Marine biodiversity underpins ecosystem health and is critical for the provision of essential ecological services. Global efforts to mitigate biodiversity loss are underway but require comprehensive knowledge on the biogeography of species to be effective. However, key challenges limit comprehensive mapping of species distributions, including the complexity of ocean ecosystems and the difficulty of sampling the marine realm. Global initiatives such as AquaMaps pioneered large-scale marine species mapping using species distribution models or Ecological Niche models and provided the knowledge base for effective marine conservation and management. Recently, methodological and data advances have enabled a more modern and robust approach that enables higher resolution outputs more suited to conservation applications at all scales. Building on AquaMaps, we develop a next-generation marine species habitat suitability modelling platform called AquaX, providing a suite of advances that include an ensemble of ten machine learning algorithms, enabling spatial uncertainty assessments, validation indices, and ecological niche representation at a ten-fold improved spatial resolution of 0.05{degrees}. Furthermore, AquaX integrates (i) accepted taxonomy from the World Register of Marine Species, (ii) species-specific ecological, physiological, and biogeographical information (D3-Ocean system), (iii) updated occurrence records validated through expert input, and (iv) refined species range maps using expert knowledge and biogeographical divisions. AquaX also projects species habitat suitability for both present and future conditions based on two time periods and three climate scenarios. This work provides species range maps for numerous species compared to previously available datasets and improves the accurate use of observational data. The approaches described here improve predictive accuracy at scales more relevant to marine biodiversity conservation and offer an openly accessible tool to support marine biodiversity research and conservation planning under accelerating environmental change. AquaX represents an important step forward in species distribution modeling, enabling researchers and policymakers to better understand marine biodiversity patterns and develop more effective conservation strategies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Operationalizing climate risk in a global warming hotspot

There has been a proliferation of climate change vulnerability assessments of species, yet possibly due to their limited reproducibility, scalability, and interpretability, their operational use in applied decision-making remains paradoxically low. We use a newly developed Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity to evaluate the climate vulnerability and risk for [~]2,000 species across three ecosystems and 90 fish stocks in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, a documented global warming hotspot. We found that harvested and commercially valuable species were at significantly greater risk of exposure to hazardous climate conditions than non-harvested species, and emissions mitigation disproportionately reduced their projected exposure risk and cumulative climate risk. Of the 90 fish stocks we evaluated, 41% were at high climate risk, but this proportion dropped to 25% under emissions mitigation. Our structured framework demonstrates how climate risk can be operationalized to support short- and long-term fisheries objectives to enhance marine fisheries climate readiness and resilience.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Targeted, collaborative biodiversity conservation in the global ocean can benefit fisheries economies

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key to averting continued loss of species and ecosystem services in our oceans, but concerns around economic trade-offs hamper progress. Here we provide optimized planning scenarios for global MPA networks that secure species habitat while minimizing impacts on fisheries revenues. We found that MPA coverage requirements differ vastly among nations, and that two-thirds of nations benefit economically from a collaborative approach. Immediate global protection of marine biodiversity habitat comes with losses of ~19% of total fisheries revenues, but international cooperation in concert with high seas protection improves economic losses for most countries, safeguards all species, and could save ~5B USD annually worldwide. Nations and fishery economies both share benefits from a coordinated approach to conserving marine biodiversity, with direct relevance to current international policies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

No leading-edge effect in North Atlantic harbor porpoises: Evolutionary and conservation implications

Understanding a species response to past environmental changes can help forecast how they will cope with ongoing climate changes. Harbor porpoises are widely distributed in the North Atlantic and were deeply impacted by the Pleistocene changes with the split of three sub-species. Despite major impacts of fisheries on natural populations, little is known about population connectivity and dispersal, how they reacted to the Pleistocene changes and how they will evolve in the future. Here, we used phylogenetics, population genetics, and predictive habitat modelling to investigate population structure and phylogeographic history of the North Atlantic porpoises. A total of 925 porpoises were characterized at 10 microsatellite loci and one-quarter of the mitogenome (mtDNA). A highly divergent mtDNA lineage was uncovered in one porpoise off Western Greenland, suggesting that a cryptic group may occur and could belong to a recently discovered mesopelagic ecotype off Greenland. Aside from it and the southern sub-species, spatial genetic variation showed that porpoises from both sides of the North Atlantic form a continuous system belonging to the same subspecies (Phocoena phocoena phoceona). Yet, we identified important departures from random mating and restricted intergenerational dispersal forming a highly significant isolation-by-distance (IBD) at both mtDNA and nuclear markers. A ten times stronger IBD at mtDNA compared to nuclear loci supported previous evidence of female philopatry. Together with the lack of spatial trends in genetic diversity, this IBD suggests that migration-drift equilibrium has been reached, erasing any genetic signal of a leading-edge effect that accompanied the predicted recolonization of the northern habitats freed from Pleistocene ice. These results illuminate the processes shaping porpoise population structure and provide a framework for designing conservation strategies and forecasting future population evolution.

evolutionary biology↗