Kandel, A. W. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2025

Pan-African metapopulation model explains Homo sapiens genetic and morphological evolution

A growing body of evidence has challenged the traditional assumption of a single-region origin for Homo sapiens, suggesting instead that our species originated from multiple geographically distinct populations in Africa, which intermittently exchanged genes and culture. However, our understanding of how this Pan-African metapopulation would have evolved through time is still limited. Furthermore, the drivers of such changes are uncertain, and quantitative models of the respective contributions of different African regions are lacking. Here we provide a complete reconstruction of the meta-population dynamics over the last 200,000 years by quantitatively integrating an ecological niche model, informed by archaeological sites, within a spatially explicit population genetic framework. The inferred metapopulation dynamics account for the divergence among all available contemporary and ancient genomes of African hunter-gatherers used to calibrate the model. In addition, it also accurately predicts the patterns of craniometric diversification across the continent from the Late Middle Pleistocene to the present. Finally, we show how the climate-driven changes in population sizes and connectivity are congruent with major patterns of archaeological and phenotypic diversification over the last 200,000 years across the African continent.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Modern wolves trace their origin to a late Pleistocene expansion from Beringia

Grey wolves (Canis lupus) are one of the few large terrestrial carnivores that maintained a wide geographic distribution across the Northern Hemisphere throughout the Pleistocene and Holocene. Recent genetic studies have suggested that, despite this continuous presence, major demographic changes occurred in wolf populations between the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, and that extant wolves trace their ancestry to a single late Pleistocene population. Both the geographic origin of this ancestral population and how it became widespread remain a mystery. Here we analyzed a large dataset of novel modern and ancient mitochondrial wolf genomes, spanning the last 50,000 years, using a spatially and temporally explicit modeling framework to show that contemporary wolf populations across the globe trace their ancestry to an expansion from Beringia at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum - a process most likely driven by the significant ecological changes that occurred across the Northern Hemisphere during this period. This study provides direct ancient genetic evidence that long-range migration has played an important role in the population history of a large carnivore and provides an insight into how wolves survived the wave of megafaunal extinctions at the end of the last glaciation. Moreover, because late Pleistocene grey wolves were the likely source from which all modern dogs trace their origins, the demographic history described in this study has fundamental implications for understanding the geographical origin of the dog.

evolutionary biology↗