Jimenez, I. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2017

Can net diversification rates account for spatial patterns of species richness?

The diversification rate hypothesis (DRH) proposes that spatial patterns of species richness result from spatial variation in net diversification rates. We developed an approach using a time-calibrated phylogeny and distributional data to estimate the maximum explanatory power of the DRH, over a given time period, to current species richness in an area. We used this approach to study species richness patterns of a large family of suboscine birds across South America. The maximum explanatory power of the DRH increased with the duration of the time period considered and grain size; it ranged from 13 - 37 fold local increases in species richness for T = 33 Ma to less than 2-fold increases for T [≤] 10 Ma. For large grain sizes ([≤] 8{degrees} x 8{degrees}) diversification rate over the last 10 Ma could account for all the spatial variance in species richness, but for smaller grain sizes commonly used in biogeographical studies (1{degrees} x 1{degrees}), it could only explain < 16% of this variance. Thus, diversification since the Late Miocene, often thought to be a major determinant of Neotropical diversity, had a limited imprint on spatial richness patterns at small grain sizes. Further application of our approach will help determine the role of the DRH in explaining current spatial patterns of species richness.\n\nNote to readersThis manuscript has been seen by a few researchers, some of whom suggested that before publishing our work in a peer-reviewed journal we should conduct simulations to demonstrate that our methods properly estimate the contribution of variance in diversification rates to spatial variation in species richness. Although we believe that our approach derives logically from theory and statistics and is therefore valid, we understand that it is rather unique and see why some readers would think that an independent validation is necessary. Unable to complete such validation in the near future, however, we decided to make this manuscript available as a preprint to share our ideas and hopefully stimulate discussion on what we believe is a most interesting topic. We also hope to receive feedback that may enable us to improve our work for publication in a journal at a later date.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Atlantean Evolution in Darwin’s Finches—Issues and Perspectives in Species Delimitation using Phenotypic Data

Progress in the development and use of methods for species delimitation employing phenotypic data lags behind conceptual and practical advances in molecular genetic approaches. The basic evolutionary model underlying the use of phenotypic data to delimit species assumes random mating and quantitative polygenic traits, so that phenotypic distributions within a species should be approximately normal for individuals of the same sex and age. Accordingly, two or more distinct normal distributions of phenotypic traits suggest the existence of multiple species. In light of this model, we show that analytical approaches employed in taxonomic studies using phenotypic data are often compromised by three issues: (1) reliance on graphical analyses of phenotypic space that do not consider the frequency of phenotypes; (2)exclusion of characters potentially important for species delimitation following reduction of data dimensionality; and (3) use of measures of central tendencies to evaluate phenotypic distinctiveness. We outline approaches to overcome these issues based on statistical developments related to normal mixture models and illustrate them empirically with a reanalysis of morphological data recently used to claim that there are no morphologically distinct species of Darwins ground-finches (Geospiza). We found negligible support for this claim relative to taxonomic hypotheses recognizing multiple species. Although species limits among ground-finches merit further assessments using additional sources of information, our results bear implications for other areas of inquiry including speciation research: because ground-finches have likely speciated and are not trapped in a process of \"Sisyphean\" evolution as recently argued, they remain useful models to understand the evolutionary forces involved in speciation. Our work underscores the importance of statistical approaches grounded on appropriate evolutionary models for species delimitation. Approaches allowing one to fit normal mixture models without a priori information about species limits offer new perspectives in the kind of inferences available to systematists, with significant repercusions on ideas about the structure of biological biodiversity. [morphology; normal mixture model; phenotype; principal components analysis; species limits; variable selection.]

evolutionary biology↗