Jerina, K. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2025

How big is enough? Movement-informed zoning for African swine fever mitigation

O_LIAfrican swine fever (ASF) poses a serious threat to domestic pigs and wild boar populations. Wild boar can disperse the virus, making effective containment crucial. One of the main control strategies involves establishing restricted zones around detected cases, i.e., areas with temporary restrictions on access and hunting; however, determining the appropriate size of these zones remains a major challenge. C_LIO_LITo inform the size of restricted zones, we analyzed GPS data from 527 wild boar across 46 European study sites using a two-step approach combining first-passage time analysis and survival modelling to quantify the risk of wild boar leaving areas of different radii (i.e., spatial scales). We investigated how the risk of leaving varied over time and across environmental gradients. To go further, we used our model findings to develop an online application that generates predictive maps of optimal buffer sizes for ASF management at the European scale, based on a given risk threshold (the maximum acceptable probability that a wild boar leaves the area). C_LIO_LIWe found that the relationship between radius and the risk of leaving is negative exponential, and the risk of leaving increased over time, with a more rapid increase for smaller radii. Landscape homogeneity, terrain ruggedness and human impact increased the risk of leaving, with stronger effects at small scales. Contrary to other predictors, agricultural cover exerted a strong effect on risk of leaving over large spatial scales, especially when it was abundant. C_LIO_LIAcross Europe, a buffer radius of [~]8 km is likely sufficient around high-risk infection zones in most areas (considering an infectious period of 14 days and a risk threshold of 5%); however, in certain areas, a radius of up to 20 km may be needed to effectively limit wild boar movement. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: Our results highlight the need for adaptive, context-specific restricted zones. Buffers of 8 km around ASF-affected areas can limit the risk of infected wild boar dispersal, but they may be reduced to 5 km in highly heterogeneous landscapes or high-human impacted areas. Larger buffers may be required in agricultural landscapes. We provide spatially explicit outputs (optimal buffer sizes) that can directly inform policy and wildlife disease response strategies. The approach can be adapted to any other infectious disease. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Human footprint and forest disturbance reduce space use of brown bears across Europe.

Three-quarters of the planets land surface has been altered by humans, with consequences for animal ecology, movements and related ecosystem functioning. Species often occupy wide geographical ranges with contrasting human disturbance and environmental conditions, yet, limited data availability across species ranges has constrained our understanding of how human impact and resource availability jointly shape intraspecific variation of animal space use. Leveraging a unique dataset of 752 annual GPS movement trajectories from 370 brown bears (Ursus arctos) across the species range in Europe, we investigated the effects of human impact (i.e., human footprint index), resource availability, forest cover and disturbance, and area-based conservation measures on brown bear space use. We quantified space use at different spatio-temporal scales during the growing season (May - September): home range size; representing general space requirements, 10-day long-distance displacement distances, and routine 1-day displacement distances. We found large intraspecific variation in brown bear space use across all scales, which was profoundly affected by human footprint index, vegetation productivity, and recent forest disturbances creating opportunity for resource pulses. Bears occupied smaller home ranges and moved less in more anthropized landscapes and in areas of higher resource availability. Forest disturbances reduced space use while contiguous forest cover promoted longer daily movements. The amount of strictly protected and roadless areas within bear home ranges were too small to affect space use. Anthropized landscapes may hinder the expansion of small and isolated populations, such as the Apennine and Pyrenean, and obstruct population connectivity, for example between the Alpine or Carpathian with the Dinaric Pindos populations. Our findings call for actions to maintain bear movements across landscapes with high human footprint, for example by maintaining forest integrity, to support viable bear populations and their ecosystem functions.

ecology↗