Jamniczky, H. A. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Evolution of thermal physiology alters predicted species distributions under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographic range projections using a mechanistic niche area approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data was either static ( no evolution models), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates ( evolution models), or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled by the trait variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; scaled evolution models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Heritability of DNA methylation in threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Epigenetic mechanisms underlying phenotypic change are hypothesized to contribute to population persistence and adaptation in the face of environmental change. To date, few studies have explored the heritability of intergenerationally stable methylation levels in natural populations, and little is known about the relative contribution of cis- and trans-regulatory changes to methylation variation. Here, we explore the heritability of DNA methylation, and conduct methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTL) analysis to investigate the genetic architecture underlying methylation variation between marine and freshwater ecotypes of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We quantitatively measured genome-wide DNA methylation in fin tissue using reduced representation bisulfite sequencing of F1 and F2 crosses, and their marine and freshwater source populations. We identified cytosines (CpG sites) that exhibited stable methylation levels across generations. We found that genetic variance explained an average of 24 to 35% of the methylation variance, with a number of CpG sites possibly autonomous from genetic control. Finally, we detected both cis- and trans-meQTLs, with only trans-meQTLs overlapping with previously identified genomic regions of high differentiation between marine and freshwater ecotypes, as well as identified the genetic architecture underlying two key CpG sites that were differentially methylated between ecotypes. These findings demonstrate a potential role for DNA methylation in facilitating adaptation to divergent environments and improve our understanding of the heritable basis of population epigenomic variation.

evolutionary biology↗