Biology subjects

Ichinokawa, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Ichinokawa, M..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Robustness and management performance of MSY reference points derived from the hockey-stick stock-recruitment model under structural uncertainty

The hockey-stick (HS) stock recruitment relationship (SRR) has been widely used as an empirical alternative to conventional SRRs such as the Beverton-Holt (BH) and Ricker (RI) models. However, the management performance and risks associated with estimating maximum-sustainable-yield (MSY) reference points (RPs) based on HS remain insufficiently understood. This study first defines deterministic and stochastic MSY RPs under the HS model and provides an overview of their properties. We then conduct simulation experiments to investigate the bias and management consequences that arise when MSY RPs are estimated from the HS model (HS-derived MSY RPs) rather than from the true SRR (e.g., BH) across a range of biological and stochastic parameters, with particular focus on scenarios with insufficient data contrast. Our results show that HS-derived MSY RPs tend to exhibit higher bias but lower variance than MSY RPs derived from the true SRR. Management strategy evaluation simulations further reveal that management procedures combining HS-derived MSY RPs with adaptive model learning and some precautionary measures gradually reduce this bias and achieve average spawning biomass and yield that are comparable to those obtained under management based on the true BH SRR. We also show that the management effectiveness of the precautionary measures depends on life-history traits and recruitment variability. These findings indicate that although HS-derived MSY RPs may be biased and require cautious use, combining them with appropriate precautionary measures allows management to remain robust while limiting variability and yield losses. This broadens the range of management options that are available for supporting sustainable fisheries management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Bent Hockey-Stick Stock-Recruitment Function

The hockey-stick is a simple and widely applicable stock-recruitment function. One drawback is its non-differentiability at the breakpoint, which can be especially problematic when using state-space models for stock assessment. Here, we develop a new bent hockey-stick model that retains the desirable properties of the original hockey-stick function while providing a differentiable breakpoint. We also propose a new algorithm for estimating MSY under multiplicative process stochasticity in the stock-recruitment relationship. Simulation studies demonstrate the utility of these approaches, which can substantially enhance the robustness and sustainability of fisheries management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Seasonal variation in the relative importance of assembly processes in marine fish communities as determined by environmental DNA analyses

Compositional variation among local communities reflects the differences in abiotic environments, though the extent of the influence varies in natural systems. Generally, the environmental filtering is expected to be strong if the environmental gradient encompasses severe habitats where species sorting is highly likely to work. However, this hypothesis has rarely been tested in dynamic systems, where the higher dispersal ability of species allows them to easily respond to stressful environments. Here, with the dynamics of fish communities in a Japanese bay revealed by environmental DNA analyses as a model case, we examined how harmful seasonal hypoxia (low concentration of oxygen in bottom waters in summer) affected the strength of environmental filtering. We found that, in summer, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration was significantly low and fish species richness decreased in the bottom water compared to the surface, suggesting that the organisms were adversely affected by the hypoxia. At the same time, the between-depths heterogeneity in DO concentration was larger, but species composition was less divergent and the influence of DO on species composition appeared weaker during summer. These results imply that environmental filtering is weakened when the bottom water was characterized by extremely severe environments. Furthermore, there was a shift in the species occurrence from bottom to surface waters in summer that was consistent across species, suggesting that the extremely severe hypoxia adversely affected fish species irrespective of their identity. These results collectively suggest that environmental filtering is weaker during summer despite more severity and heterogeneity in environments, most likely because individual movements to avoid unpreferable environments in the bottom waters occurred quasi-neutrally. By providing evidence against the prevailing understanding that environmental filtering strongly works in severe environments, these findings invoke further investigation on how the filtering acts in various conditions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Evaluating a harvest control rule to improve the sustainability of Japanese fisheries

Fisheries management in Japan is currently at a turning point. MSY based reference points have historically been rejected because of impacts on the fishing industry that would result from their adoption. We propose and evaluate a new harvest control rule (HCR) that uses the biological reference points based on sustainable yield from the stochastic hockey-stick stock recruitment relationship. Management strategy evaluation simulations conditioned on data from Japanese stocks demonstrate that the new HCR avoided recruitment overfishing while providing stable and near maximum catch. The new HCR outperformed Japans traditional HCR in terms of conservation, and it outperformed an alternative HCR which is widely used around the world in terms of initial catch reduction and future catch variation. For forecasting and hindcasting simulations, the new HCR showed considerable improvements over traditional HCRs in terms of biomass and catch. This new management procedure can improve the current and future status of many overfished stocks in Japan as well as increase economic efficiency and better protect ecosystems.

ecology↗