Holyoak, M. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Hilltopping influences spatial dynamics in a patchy population of tiger moths

Dispersal is a key driver of spatial population dynamics. Dispersal behavior may be shaped by many factors, such as mate-finding, the spatial distribution of resources, or wind and currents, yet most models of spatial dynamics assume random dispersal. We examined the spatial dynamics of a day-flying moth species (Arctia virginalis) that forms mating aggregations on hilltops ( hilltopping) based on long-term adult and larval population censuses. Using time-series models, we compared spatial population dynamics resulting from empirically-founded hilltop-based connectivity indices, and modeled the interactive effects of temperature, precipitation, and density dependence. Model comparisons supported hilltop-based connectivity metrics over random connectivity, suggesting an effect of hilltopping behavior on dynamics. We also found strong interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on dynamics. Simulations based on fitted time series models showed lower patch occupancy and regional synchrony, and higher colonization and extinction rates when hilltopping was included, with potential implications for the probability of persistence of the patch network. Overall, our results show the potential for dispersal behavior to have important effects on spatial population dynamics and persistence, and we advocate inclusion of such non-random dispersal in metapopulation models.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Using citizen science data in integrated population models to inform conservation decision-making

Analysis of animal population status and change are core elements of ecological research and critical for prioritizing conservation actions. Traditionally, count-based data from structured surveys have been the main source of information used to estimate trends and changes in populations. In the past decade, advances in integrated population models (IPMs) have allowed these data to be combined with other data sources (e.g., observations of marked individuals). IPMs have allowed researchers to determine the direction and magnitude of a species population trajectory and to test underlying mechanisms. For many species, life-history characteristics (e.g., low site-fidelity), low abundance and/or low detection probability make it difficult to collect sufficient data; thus, IPMs for these species are difficult to employ. We used count data from eBird to estimate population trends for one such species, the tricolored blackbird (Agelaius tricolor). We combined estimates of relative abundance with banding and nesting data. Our joint estimation of demographic rates allowed us to evaluate their individual contributions to the population growth rate. We suggest that investments in increasing reproductive success and recruitment are the most likely conservation strategies to increase the population. The extensive survey efforts of citizen scientists aided the employment of IPMs to inform conservation efforts.\n\nData AccessibilityShould the manuscript be accepted, the data supporting the results will be published along with the manuscript. The eBird data used for analyses in this manuscript may be downloaded from https://ebird.org/data/download.

ecology↗