Biology subjects

Hillers, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Hillers, A..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Predicting range shifts of African apes under global change scenarios

AimModelling African great ape distribution has until now focused on current or past conditions, whilst future scenarios remain scarcely explored. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we predicted changes in taxon-specific distribution under future scenarios of climate, land-use and human population changes. LocationSub-Saharan Africa MethodsWe compiled occurrence data on African ape populations from the IUCN A.P.E.S. database and extracted relevant human-, climate- and habitat-related predictors representing current and future (2050) conditions to predict taxon-specific distribution under a best- and a worst-case scenario, using ensemble forecasting. Given the large effect on model predictions, we further tested algorithm sensitivity by considering default and non-default modelling options. The latter included interactions between predictors and polynomial terms in correlative algorithms. ResultsThe future distributions of gorilla and bonobo populations are likely to be directly determined by climate-related variables. In contrast, future chimpanzee distribution is influenced mostly by anthropogenic variables. Both our modelling approaches produced similar model accuracy, although a slight difference in the magnitude of range change was found for Gorilla beringei beringei, G. gorilla diehli, and Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii. On average, a decline of 50% of the geographic range (non-default; or 55% default) is expected under the best scenario if no dispersal occurs (57% non-default or 58% default in worst scenario). However, new areas of suitable habitat are predicted to become available for most taxa if dispersal occurs (81% or 103% best, 93% or 91% worst, non-default and default, respectively), except for G. b. beringei. Main ConclusionsDespite the uncertainty in predicting the precise proportion of suitable habitat by 2050, both modelling approaches predict large range losses for all African apes. Thus, conservation planners urgently need to integrate land-use planning and simultaneously support conservation and climate change mitigation measures at all decision-making levels both in range countries and abroad.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Sexual Dichromatism Drives Diversification Within a Major Radiation of African Amphibians

Theory predicts that sexually dimorphic traits under strong sexual selection, particularly those involved with intersexual signaling, can accelerate speciation and produce bursts of diversification. Sexual dichromatism (sexual dimorphism in color) is widely used as a proxy for sexual selection and is associated with rapid diversification in several animal groups, yet studies using phylogenetic comparative methods to explicitly test for an association between sexual dichromatism and diversification have produced conflicting results. Sexual dichromatism is rare in frogs, but it is both striking and prevalent in African reed frogs, a major component of the diverse frog radiation termed Afrobatrachia. In contrast to most other vertebrates, reed frogs display female-biased dichromatism in which females undergo color transformation, often resulting in more ornate coloration in females than in males. We produce a robust phylogeny of Afrobrachia to investigate the evolutionary origins of sexual dichromatism in this radiation and examine whether the presence of dichromatism is associated with increased rates of net diversification. We find that sexual dichromatism evolved once within hyperoliids and was followed by numerous independent reversals to monochromatism. We detect significant diversification rate heterogeneity in Afrobatrachia and find that sexually dichromatic lineages have double the average net diversification rate of monochromatic lineages. By conducting trait simulations on our empirical phylogeny, we demonstrate our inference of trait-dependent diversification is robust. Although sexual dichromatism in hyperoliid frogs is linked to their rapid diversification and supports macroevolutionary predictions of speciation by sexual selection, the function of dichromatism in reed frogs remains unclear. We propose that reed frogs are a compelling system for studying the roles of natural and sexual selection on the evolution of sexual dichromatism across both micro- and macroevolutionary timescales.

evolutionary biology↗