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Hartnett, A. T.

Publications and source records attributed to Hartnett, A. T..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Searching for structure in collective systems

Collective systems such as fish schools, bird flocks, and neural networks are comprised of many mutually-influencing individuals, often without long-term leaders, well-defined hierarchies, or persistent relationships. The remarkably organized group-level behaviors readily observable in these systems contrast with the ad hoc, often difficult to observe, and complex interactions among their constituents. While these complex individual-level dynamics are ultimately the drivers of group-level coordination, they do not necessarily offer the most parsimonious description of a groups macroscopic properties. Rather, the factors underlying group organization may be better described at some intermediate, mesoscopic scale. We introduce a novel method from information-theoretic first principles to find a compressed description of a system based on the actions and mutual dependencies of its constituents, thus revealing the natural structure of the collective. We emphasize that this method is computationally tractable and requires neither pairwise nor Gaussian assumptions about individual interactions.

animal behavior and cognition

Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds

Aggregating multiple non-expert opinions into a collective estimate can improve accuracy across many contexts. However, two sources of error can diminish collective wisdom: individual estimation biases and information sharing between individuals. Here we measure individual biases and social influence rules in multiple experiments involving hundreds of individuals performing a classic numerosity estimation task. We first investigate how existing aggregation methods, such as calculating the arithmetic mean or the median, are influenced by these sources of error. We show that the mean tends to overestimate, and the median underestimate, the true value for a wide range of numerosities. Quantifying estimation bias, and mapping individual bias to collective bias, allows us to develop and validate three new aggregation measures that effectively counter sources of collective estimation error. In addition, we present results from a further experiment that quantifies the social influence rules that individuals employ when incorporating personal estimates with social information. We show that the corrected mean is remarkably robust to social influence, retaining high accuracy in the presence or absence of social influence, across numerosities, and across different methods for averaging social information. Utilizing knowledge of estimation biases and social influence rules may therefore be an inexpensive and general strategy to improve the wisdom of crowds.

animal behavior and cognition