Biology subjects

Harding, K. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Harding, K. C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Weaning body condition, preweaning survival, and post-weaning residence under contrasting breeding densities in Baltic grey seals

In Baltic grey seals (Halichoerus grypus), interannual variation in sea-ice availability can alter the proportion of females breeding on land, generating substantial variation in local breeding density among years. We investigated preweaning survival, post-weaning residence, and weaning body condition at a Baltic grey seal land-breeding colony over two years with contrasting colony densities. Drone imagery provided repeated counts of pups in distinct developmental stages and estimates of moulting pup mass as an index of weaning body condition. A Bayesian state-space population model estimated substantially greater pup production in the high- (282.5 [95% CrI = 252.8 to 320.9] pups) than the low-density (188.3 [95% CrI =168.9 to 210.8] pups) year, but similar preweaning survival (0.66 [95% CrI = 0.53 to 0.81] and 0.67 [95% CrI = 0.56 to 0.79], respectively). In contrast, post-weaning residence differed substantially between the high- (11.8 [95% CrI = 9.2 to 15.7] days) and low-density (30.3 [95% CrI = 23.1 to 39.1] days) years. Greater exposure to other pups during early life was associated with lower weaning body mass ({beta} = -0.45 [-0.89 to -0.01], P[{beta} < 0] = 0.98). Together, these results suggest that the consequences of higher breeding density may emerge through poorer weaning condition and altered post-weaning residence even when effects on preweaning survival are not detectable.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Maternal transfer and long-term population effects of PCBs in Baltic grey seals using a new toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic population model

Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We construct a new model which we term a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination, and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs, and was linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard, and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were then linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Our model showed that increased PCB exposure caused reduced fertility, decreased vertical transfer, and increased biomagnification. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The developed model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants than PCB by adjustments of model parameter values and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Ecological success of sexual and asexual reproductive strategies invading an environmentally unstable habitat

Many aspects of sexual and asexual reproduction have been studied empirically and theoretically. The differences between sexual and asexual reproduction within a species often lead to a biased geographical distribution of individuals with different reproductive strategies. While sexuals are more abundant in the core habitat, asexuals are often found in marginal habitats along the edge of the species distribution. This pattern, called geographic parthenogenesis, has been observed in many species but the mechanisms reponsible for generating it are poorly known. We used a quantitative approach using a metapopulation model to explore the ecological processes that can lead to geographic parthenogenesis and the invasion of new habitats by different reproductive strategies. We analyzed the Allee effect on sexual populations and the population sensitivity to environmental stress during the invasion of a marginal, unstable habitat to demonstrate that a complex interaction between the Allee effect, sensitivity to environmental stress and the environmental conditions can determine the relative success of competing reproductive strategies during the initial invasion and longterm establishment in the marginal habitat. We discuss our results in the light of previous empirical and theoretical studies. Author SummaryIndividuals can reproduce with or without sex. Very often, closely related species are distributed in a such a way that the sexually reproducing species is most frequently found in the core habitat while the asexually reproducing species is found on the edge of the habitat range. This biased distribution of reproductive strategies across a habitat range is called geographic parthenogenesis and has been observed in several species. While many processes have been proposed to explain such a pattern, a quantitative approach of the ecological processes was absent. We investigated important differences between sexual and asexual reproduction and how these differences affect the success of sexuals and asexuals invading a marginal, unstable environment. We showed that the relative frequency of each reproductive strategy in the marginal habitat depends on how much sexuals rely on population density to reproduce and how much asexuals are affected by environmental stress relative to sexuals. Our study presents a quantitative ecological explanation for geographic parthenogenesis and provides the conditions under which different distribution patterns can emerge.

ecology↗