Pan-African metapopulation model explains Homo sapiens genetic and morphological evolution
A growing body of evidence has challenged the traditional assumption of a single-region origin for Homo sapiens, suggesting instead that our species originated from multiple geographically distinct populations in Africa, which intermittently exchanged genes and culture. However, our understanding of how this Pan-African metapopulation would have evolved through time is still limited. Furthermore, the drivers of such changes are uncertain, and quantitative models of the respective contributions of different African regions are lacking. Here we provide a complete reconstruction of the meta-population dynamics over the last 200,000 years by quantitatively integrating an ecological niche model, informed by archaeological sites, within a spatially explicit population genetic framework. The inferred metapopulation dynamics account for the divergence among all available contemporary and ancient genomes of African hunter-gatherers used to calibrate the model. In addition, it also accurately predicts the patterns of craniometric diversification across the continent from the Late Middle Pleistocene to the present. Finally, we show how the climate-driven changes in population sizes and connectivity are congruent with major patterns of archaeological and phenotypic diversification over the last 200,000 years across the African continent.