Biology subjects

Guitian, J.

Publications and source records attributed to Guitian, J..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Sampling design and inference of the caecal-skin Campylobacter relationship in broilers

The relationship between Campylobacter levels in broiler caeca and on carcass skin is central to quantitative microbial risk assessment along the poultry production chain, underpinning modelling of intervention impacts, including EFSA assessments of the public health impact of control measures. However, this relationship is typically inferred from monitoring data generated under sampling designs that do not preserve pairing between specimens and may involve pooling. In this study, we used a simulation framework to evaluate whether commonly used sampling strategies allow reliable recovery of the caecal-skin relationship. A simulated broiler population was generated, assigning caecal and skin loads to individual birds based on a specified linear relationship. Sampling was conducted under paired and unpaired designs, with and without pooling, reflecting approaches used in surveillance programmes and in policy-oriented models. Regression models were fitted to sampled data across 1,000 simulations for a range of assumed slopes. Under paired sampling, estimated slopes closely matched the true relationship across most scenarios. In contrast, unpaired sampling consistently failed to recover the association, with estimated slopes centred around zero regardless of the true slope. These findings were robust to variation in within-flock prevalence, residual error, and intercept. The results show that sampling design fundamentally affects identifiability of relationships between stages of the production chain. This has implications for interpretation of parameters derived from monitoring data and used in quantitative Campylobacter risk assessments informing policy. Parameters derived from unpaired and pooled monitoring data should therefore be interpreted with caution when used to support risk assessment and decision-making. Campylobacter; broiler chickens; sampling strategy; unpaired sampling; carcass contamination; quantitative microbial risk assessment; simulation.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2024

Genomic Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Norfolk, UK, March 2020 - December 2022

BackgroundIn the UK, the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK) established a real time national genomic surveillance system during the COVID-19 pandemic, producing centralised data for monitoring SARS-CoV-2. As a COG-UK partner, Quadram Institute Bioscience (QIB) in Norfolk sequenced over 87,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, contributing to the region becoming densely sequenced. Retrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in this region may contribute to preparedness for future pandemics. Methods29,406 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences and corresponding metadata from Norfolk were extracted from the COG-UK dataset, sampled between March 2020 and December 2022, representing 9.9% of regional COVID-19 cases. Sequences were lineage typed using Pangolin, and subsequent lineage analysis carried out in R using RStudio and related packages, including graphical analysis using ggplot2. Results401 global lineages were identified, with 69.8% appearing more than once and 31.2% over ten times. Temporal clustering identified six lineage communities based on first lineage emergence. Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants of concern (VOC) accounted for 8.6%, 34.9% and 48.5% of sequences respectively. These formed four regional epidemic waves alongside the remaining lineages which appeared in the early pandemic prior to VOC designation and were termed pre-VOC lineages. Regional comparison highlighted variability in VOC epidemic wave dates dependent on location. ConclusionThis study is the first to assess SARS-CoV-2 diversity in Norfolk across a large timescale within the COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 was both highly diverse and dynamic throughout the Norfolk region between March 2020 - December 2022, with a strong VOC presence within the latter two thirds of the study period. The study also displays the utility of incorporating genomic epidemiological methods into pandemic response. Data summaryThe COG-UK collection of SARS-CoV-2 sequences and metadata are available for public download on their archive website under the Latest sequence data heading . Sequence names for all sequences used from this dataset alongside GISAID accession numbers where present are available in Supplementary Table 1. Impact statementWe extracted 29,406 regional Norfolk based SARS-CoV-2 sequences from the COG-UK SARS-CoV-2 dataset and revealed significant regional diversity and dynamic emergence of variant of concern (VOC) epidemic waves - spanning Alpha, Delta and Omicron lineages. We also applied statistical modelling to complement genomic methodology, with temporal clustering of significant first lineage emergences chronologically matching VOC waves and subwaves. The study highlights the importance of integration of genomic epidemiology into public health strategies for pandemic response, and the utility of using this data for retrospective research.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2022

Dynamic model of bovine brucellosis to investigate control strategies in endemic settings

Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of Brucella abortus in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritised. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective use of resources. Critically, under current model assumptions, significant numbers of animals removed (culled or not used for breeding) in this strategy would be removed based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This exercise provided important insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.

microbiology↗