Biology subjects

Grinand, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Grinand, C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Are narrow-ranging species doomed to extinction? Dramatic and generalised decline in future climate suitability of highly threatened species

Narrow-ranging species are usually omitted from Species distribution models (SDMs) due to statistical constraints, while they are predicted to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The recently available high-resolution environmental predictors, along with recently developed methods enable to increase the eligibility of narrow-ranging species for SDMs, provided their distribution is well known. We fill a gap of knowledge on the effect of predicted climate change on narrow-ranging species. We modelled the distribution of the golden mantella frog Mantella aurantiaca and the Manapany day gecko Phelsuma inexpectata, for which the distribution of their occurrence records is well documented. Our modelling scheme included a range of processes susceptible to address statistical issues related to narrow-ranging species. We predict an alarming decline in climate suitability in the whole current distribution area of both species by 2070, potentially leading to a complete extinction in most scenarios. We identified the areas with the best climate suitability in the future, but these remain largely suboptimal regarding species climatic niche. The high level of habitat fragmentation suggests that both species likely need to be at least partly translocated. Climate change may not only drive range contractions or distribution shifts in narrow-ranging species, but may lead to the complete extirpation of suitable environments across their entire region. This study suggests that the level of threats of narrow-ranging species already identified as threatened may be underestimated, especially in heterogeneous tropical areas. We stress the need to develop sampling campaigns and implement proactive actions for narrow-ranging species in the tropics.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

It's not just poverty: unregulated global market and bad governance explain unceasing deforestation in Western Madagascar

Madagascar is recognized both for its unparalleled biodiversity and the high level of threat suffered by this biodiversity, associated in particular with anthropogenic deforestation. Despite sustained efforts to fight poverty and curb deforestation, forest cover in Madagascar is rapidly decreasing. To try to explain why it is so difficult to stop deforestation in Madagascar, we analysed the recent deforestation process in Western Madagascar through satellite image analysis and field surveys. We show that deforestation has increased from less than 0.9%/yr on 2000-2010 to more than 2%/yr on 2010-2017. We identified two major causes of deforestation, which were not associated with subsistence agriculture: slash-and-burn agriculture for the cultivation of cash crops (maize and peanut), and uncontrolled fires to create open pasture. Maize production is mainly at the destination of the domestic market and is used in particular for livestock feeding. Peanut production has boomed since 2013 and more than half of it is now exported towards asiatic countries. The money earned by farmers is principally invested into zebu herd acquisition. Trade of agricultural commodities benefits several intermediaries, some of whom have political responsibilities thus creating conflicts of interest. On the other hand, agents from institutions in charge of the management of the protected areas have no means to enforce laws against deforestation. In the absence of an efficient strategy to stop deforestation, we predicted that 38-93% of the forest present in 2000 will have disappeared in 2050. Forest loss, apart from biodiversity loss and climate-change global issues, will be at the expense of local population. In order to stop deforestation, international aid should be used to improve local governance to enforce environmental laws and pressure should be put on trading companies to buy certified agricultural commodities that are not derived from deforestation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Combining global tree cover loss data with historical national forest-cover maps to look at six decades of deforestation and forest fragmentation in Madagascar

The island of Madagascar has a unique biodiversity, mainly located in the tropical forests of the island. This biodiversity is highly threatened by anthropogenic deforestation. Existing historical forest maps at national level are scattered and have substantial gaps which prevent an exhaustive assessment of long-term deforestation trends in Madagascar. In this study, we combined historical national forest cover maps (covering the period 1953-2000) with a recent global annual tree cover loss dataset (2001-2014) to look at six decades of deforestation and forest fragmentation in Madagascar (from 1953 to 2014). We produced new forest cover maps at 30 m resolution for the year 1990 and annually from 2000 to 2014 over the full territory of Madagascar. We estimated that Madagascar has lost 44% of its natural forest cover over the period 1953-2014 (including 37% over the period 1973-2014). Natural forests cover 8.9 Mha in 2014 (15% of the national territory) and include 4.4 Mha (50%) of moist forests, 2.6 Mha (29%) of dry forests, 1.7 Mha of spiny forests (19%) and 177,000 ha (2%) of mangroves. Since 2005, the annual deforestation rate has progressively increased in Madagascar to reach 99,000 ha/yr during 2010-2014 (corresponding to a rate of 1.1%/yr). Around half of the forest (46%) is now located at less than 100 m from the forest edge. Our approach could be replicated to other developing countries with tropical forest. Accurate forest cover change maps can be used to assess the effectiveness of past and current conservation programs and implement new strategies for the future. In particular, forest maps and estimates can be used in the REDD+ framework which aims at \"Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation\" and for optimizing the current protected area network.

ecology↗