bioRxiv2021
Changes in land-use and the associated shifts in environmental conditions can have large effects on the transmission and emergence of disease. Mosquito-borne disease are particularly sensitive to these changes because mosquito growth, reproduction, survival and susceptibility to infection are all thermally sensitive traits, and land use change dramatically alters local microclimate. Predicting disease transmission under environmental change is increasingly critical for targeting mosquito-borne disease control and for identifying hotspots of disease emergence. Mechanistic models offer a powerful tool for improving these predications. However, these approaches are limited by the quality and scale of temperature data and the thermal response curves that underlie predictions. Here, we used fine-scale temperature monitoring and a combination of empirical, laboratory and temperature-dependent estimates to estimate the vectorial capacity of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes across a tropical forest - oil palm plantation conversion gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We found that fine-scale differences in temperature between logged forest and oil palm plantation sites were not sufficient to produce differences in temperature-dependent trait estimates using published thermal performance curves. However, when measured under field conditions a key parameter, adult abundance, differed significantly between land-use types, resulting in estimates of vectorial capacity that were 1.5 times higher in plantations than in forests. The prediction that oil palm plantations would support mosquito populations with higher vectorial capacity was robust to uncertainties in our adult survival estimates. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the effects of forest conversion on mosquito-borne disease risk, and a framework for interpreting emergent relationships between land-use and disease transmission. As rising demand for palm oil products drives continued expansion of plantations, these findings have important implications for conservation, land management and public health policy at the global scale. AUTHOR SUMMARYThe large scale modification of landscapes by humans has contributed to the rise of emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. While the association between athropogenic land-use change and these shifts in disease risk are frequently observed, our understanding of exactly how land-use change mechanistically alters disease risk remains unclear. Changes in local environmental conditions (e.g. temperature) may play an important role, due to the effects on mosquito life-history, but are rarely measured at scales relevant these small-bodied ectotherms. Here we measure the impact of tropical forest conversion to oil palm plantation on each of the components that determine the potential for mosquitoes to transmit pathogens (vectorial capacity). By combining fine-scale temperature data from the field, published temperature responses of mosquitoes and field data on adult mosquito populations, we show that land-use change from forest to plantation can be expected to increase vectorial capacity by 150%. Our results highlight the need to advance field research into fundamental mosquito ecology, and to more critically evaluate the increased risk of Aedes-borne disease in dynamic working landscapes against the benefits of economic development.