Biology subjects

Gonzalez-Moreno, P.

Publications and source records attributed to Gonzalez-Moreno, P..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Evolution and paradigm shift in forest health research: A review on global trends and knowledge gaps

Forests provide key ecosystem services to human society, and the ability to provide these services depends on their overall health. Forest health is an attractive and interesting concept in forestry research, which environmental, social and political interests have shaped. Assessing forest health is crucial, but finding a single definition of the concept is complex. It is determined by the aim of the forest study, different areas of knowledge, scales of work, technology, methodologies, historical moment or source of funding, among others. With almost a century of scientific evidence, the aim is to identify and contextualise temporal changes in the relevance of this key concept. Trends are analysed through the construction of three main descriptors (state variables, drivers and methods) and the main conceptual subdomains (themes). This review reveals the significant geographical bias in the research, which the Global North predominantly conducts. We observe the evolution of forest health research driven by diverse needs and interests, ranging from air pollution to the multifaceted impacts of climate change. Methodologies applied in this field have also evolved from traditional crown condition inventories to the use of advanced tools such as remote sensing or ecophysiology, improving the characterisation of forest health patterns at both global and individual scales. Forest health research has evolved towards more holistic and multidisciplinary approaches, reflected in the broadening and integration of methodologies and technologies, influenced by historical context, which influence what is being researched today and future scenarios. We identified key knowledge gaps in the scientific literature, in particular the concepts of ecosystem services, Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) and the concept of One Health. These findings highlight the need for future research to incorporate these critical but often overlooked areas, potentially reshaping future directions and scenarios for forest health research.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

European scenarios for future biological invasions

O_LIInvasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, natures contribution to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales. C_LIO_LIBased on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs). C_LIO_LIWe compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios. C_LIO_LIWe also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives. C_LIO_LIGiven the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent, but complementary, scenarios focused on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we presented and implemented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change including biological invasions. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

A scenario-guided strategy for the future management of biological invasions

Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple environmental, societal and socio-economic drivers. We adopted a qualitative scenario approach to explore the future of invasive alien species (IAS) in Europe and created an overall strategy for their management that considers different plausible future developments. The scenarios and strategy were developed during two online workshops with a multidisciplinary team of experts. First, we downscaled four global scenarios of biological invasions to the European level. Second, we developed a management strategy structured into 19 goals that cover a broad array of IAS-related topics (i.e. policy, research, public awareness and biosecurity), and provided solutions for achieving these goals considering the European scenarios. Third, we identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing IAS in Europe can be structured: (i) a European biosecurity regime, (ii) a dedicated communication strategy, (iii) data standardization and management tools, and (iv) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we identified the feasibility of the IAS management strategy, finding strong differences among the four scenarios. High levels of technological development, public environmental awareness, and effectiveness of IAS policies facilitated the implementation of the overall management strategy. Together, our results indicate that it is time for a new management of biological invasions in Europe based on a more integrative perspective across sectors and countries to be better prepared for future challenges.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20-50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe damage to livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa, and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworms year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworms year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.

ecology↗