Legacy Effects of Land-Use Land-Cover Change on Species Distribution Dynamics: Evidence from a landscape of diverse biogeographic crossroads
Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is a dominant driver of biodiversity loss, yet its long-term role in restructuring species distribution remains poorly understood due to limited historical baselines and the scarcity of long-term analyses across multiple ecological transition zones. Here, we investigate nearly two centuries of land-use change across a biogeographically diverse region to evaluate how landscape transformation has reshaped vertebrate distribution range dynamics, and whether ecoregional context, habitat specialization, and taxonomic identity better explain these patterns than recent landscape change alone. Using Texas, a biogeographic crossroads with diverse ecoregional zones and a long history of intensive land-use, we quantify distributional changes in 100 native vertebrate species (mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians), using Vernon Baileys late nineteenth-century surveys as a historical benchmark. We integrated multi-temporal LULC datasets with spatial and multivariate analyses to assess how habitat change, species traits, and regional context relate to patterns of range expansion, contraction, and redistribution. We show that Texas has undergone non-linear landscape transformations characterized by early agricultural expansion followed by cropland abandonment, shrubland encroachment, and rapid urbanization. Range contractions were most pronounced among amphibians, reptiles, and habitat specialists, whereas generalist species and many birds exhibited greater range stability or expansion. Across taxa, primary habitat, vertebrate class, and ecoregional context emerged as the strongest predictors of distributional change, underscoring the importance of historical and environmental context over simple measures of habitat loss and fragmentation. These results indicate that while long-term LULC change establishes the underlying landscape template, species responses are structured by ecological context, including habitat affinity, taxonomic traits, and regional environmental gradients. By linking historical landscape trajectories to contemporary biodiversity patterns, this study provides a transferable framework for investigating how land-use legacies influence species distributions and community reassembly in heterogeneous human-dominated landscapes, highlighting the importance of adaptive capacity and connectivity for conservation planning.