Biology subjects

Goncalves-Souza, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Goncalves-Souza, T..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Ecological context shapes the interpretation of biodiversity intactness metrics

Developing biodiversity metrics that are both operational for decision-making and ecologically meaningful remains challenging. Mean Species Abundance (MSA) is widely used to quantify biodiversity intactness in applications including biodiversity scenario modeling, spatial assessment, policy and planning, and life cycle assessment (LCA). MSA compares species abundance under disturbed conditions with their abundance under a reference condition, but the pressure-impact relationships used to calculate it are generalized across studies and may not adequately represent variation among ecological contexts or taxonomic groups. This is particularly relevant when MSA is transferred across regions or used to support comparisons and environmental decision-making. We compiled biodiversity data from 7,064 forest fragments containing 21,761 species of arthropods, amphibians, birds, mammals, squamates, and plants across 11 biomes worldwide. We evaluated how MSA relates to broader ecological outcomes, including local and regional species richness and ecosystem productivity, and whether these relationships vary across ecological contexts (vegetation condition, landscape structure, and biome) and taxonomic groups. MSA was positively associated with local species richness and ecosystem productivity across all sites, but these associations weakened, disappeared, or reversed depending on ecological context and taxonomic group. For example, the MSA-productivity association held in only five of 11 biomes, and the MSA-regional richness association was negative in temperate conifer and boreal forests but positive in four other biomes. We propose a simple decision guide linking assessment goals, contextual evaluation, and interpretation to help identify when MSA can be used directly, when ecological context should guide its interpretation, and when complementary ecological information is needed. These findings may extend to other biodiversity metrics that compare impacted conditions with reference states and apply generalized impact relationships across ecological contexts and taxonomic groups.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Prior low-severity fires reduce the risk of persistent forest loss from subsequent fires

Intensifying fire regimes threaten forests globally, but the risk of persistent post-fire forest loss and its potential mitigation remains poorly quantified. We analyzed millions of wildfires worldwide from 2001 to 2024 and tracked recovery in satellite-observed forest structure and ecosystem function. Post-fire persistent forest loss, indicated by modeled non-recovery to pre-fire conditions over decadal timescales, affected 57.1% of burned forest area globally since 2001, with hotspots in Pacific temperate and southern boreal forests. We then identified 'crucial fires' as events exceeding a stringent modeled-risk probability threshold for persistent structural or functional non-recovery, with fire severity strongly predicting this loss. This severity dependence revealed a management pathway, as locations with prior low-severity fire experienced lower severity in subsequent wildfires and had lower modeled probability of becoming crucial. Under a model-based counterfactual scenario, applying the estimated severity attenuation was associated with a 7.6% reduction; the top 1% of road-accessible areas accounted for 35% of this reduction. These results provide a global framework for identifying where wildfire threatens forest resistance and where targeted low-severity fire management like prescribed fire might be used to combat global forest loss.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Primary productivity declines when species composition and climate are mismatched

Climate change drives shifts in species composition, but turnover in many communities lags behind the current pace of change. Anticipating the impact of the resulting community-climate disequilibria on ecosystem functioning is critical. Present-day communities may already be out of equilibrium with climate, providing an opportunity to estimate the effects of disequilibrium before they become more widespread. We analyzed plant community composition and function data from [~]60,000 rangeland monitoring sites across the western US to measure how community-climate disequilibrium contributes to spatial and temporal variation in net primary productivity (NPP) - a key ecosystem function. We found that communities were already substantially out of equilibrium with climate and accounting for this disequilibrium helped explain patterns of NPP. Communities farthest from equilibrium were less productive than those that were closely matched with climate. Our findings suggest that future increases in community-climate disequilibrium may further impair ecosystem functioning.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

The impact of climate and habitat on body shape and size evolution in whip spiders (Amblypygi)

Arthropod body size responds to environmental variation at differing spatial scales. Amblypygi (whip spiders) is an ancient order of arachnids with remarkably conserved body shape, despite their global distribution. While several studies have investigated how body size evolved in spiders, virtually no study has addressed this issue in whip spiders. Here, we analysed how body size and shape of 69 species of Charontid whip spiders evolved in response to climate and habitat. We used Generalized Least Squares to test if bioclimatic variables and habitat influence the variation in body size and shape. Additionally, we fitted alternative macroevolutionary models to body size and shape using Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood approaches. Finally, we estimated phylogenetic signal and tested for differences in evolutionary rates among habitats. Body size decreased slightly with increasing mean annual temperatures and increased with increasing yearly precipitation. Body size evolved following an increasing trend, while the adaptive landscape of body shape seems to have distinct optima, but not rates, for each habitat. Our results support both Cope-Deperets and Bergmanns rule, while habitat had a lesser role. This is the first study to analyze the evolution of Amblypygi phenotypes, which helps in understanding why their morphology is so conserved.

evolutionary biology↗