Biology subjects

Goldstein, E.

Publications and source records attributed to Goldstein, E..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

On the role of different age groups during pertussis epidemics in California, 2010 and 2014

BackgroundThere is limited information on the roles of different age groups in propagating pertussis outbreaks, and the temporal changes in those roles since the introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines.\n\nMethodsThe relative roles of different age groups in propagating the 2010 and the 2014 pertussis epidemics in California were evaluated using the RR statistic that measures the change in the groups proportion among all detected cases before-vs.-after the epidemic peak.\n\nResultsFor the 2010-11 epidemic, evidence for a predominant transmission age group was weak, with the largest RR estimates being 1.26(95%CI (1.08,1.46)) (aged 11-13y); 1.19(1.01,1.4) (aged 9-10y); 1.17(0.86,1.59) (aged 14-15y); 1.12(0.86,1.46) (aged 16-19y); and 1.1(0.89,1.36) (aged 7-8y). The 2014 epidemic showed a strong signal of the role of older adolescents, with the highest RR estimate being in those aged 14-15y (RR=1.83(1.61,2.07)), followed by adolescents aged 16-19y (RR=1.41(1.24,1.61)) and 11-13y (RR=1.26(1.12,1.41)), with lower RR estimates in other age groups.\n\nConclusionsAs the time following introduction of acellular pertussis vaccines in California progressed, older adolescents played an increasing role in transmission during the major pertussis outbreaks. Booster pertussis vaccination for older adolescents with vaccines effective against pertussis transmission should be considered with the aim of mitigating future pertussis epidemics in the community.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Levels of prescribing for four major antibiotic classes and rates of septicemia hospitalization in different US states

BackgroundRates of sepsis/septicemia hospitalization in the US have risen significantly during recent years, and antibiotic resistance and use may contribute to those rates through various mechanisms.\n\nMethodsWe used multivariable linear regression to relate state-specific rates of outpatient prescribing overall for fluoroquinolones, penicillins, macrolides, and cephalosporins between 2011-2012 to state-specific rates of hospitalization with septicemia (ICD-9 codes 038.xx present anywhere on discharge diagnosis) in each of the following age groups of adults: (18-49y, 50-64y, 65-74y, 75-84y, 85+y) reported to the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) between 2011-2012, adjusting for additional covariates, and random effects associated with the ten US Health and Human Services (HHS) regions.\n\nResultsRates of penicillin prescribing were positively associated with septicemia hospitalization rates in the analyses for persons aged 50-64y, 65-74y, and 74-84y. Percent African Americans in a given age group was positively associated with septicemia hospitalization rates in the analyses for persons aged 75-84y and over 85y. Average minimal daily temperature was positively associated with septicemia hospitalization rates in the analyses for persons aged 18-49y, 50-64y, 75-84y and over 85y.\n\nConclusionsOur results suggest positive associations between the rates of prescribing for penicillins and the rates of sepsis hospitalization in US adults aged 50-84y. Further studies are needed to understand the potential effect of antibiotic replacement in the treatment of various syndromes, such as replacement of fluoroquinolones by other antibiotics, possibly penicillins following the recent US FDA guidelines on restriction of fluoroquinolone use, on the rates of sepsis hospitalization.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Antimicrobial resistance prevalence and rates of hospitalization with septicemia in the diagnosis in adults in different US states

ObjectivesRates of hospitalization with sepsis/septicemia and associated mortality in the US have risen significantly during the last two decades. Antibiotic resistance may contribute to the rates of sepsis-related outcomes through lack of clearance of bacterial infections following antibiotic treatment during different stages of infection. However, there is limited information about the relation between prevalence of resistance to various antibiotics in different bacteria and rates of sepsis-related outcomes. MethodsFor different age groups of adults (18-49y,50-64y,65-74y,75-84y,85+y) and combinations of antibiotics/bacteria, we evaluated associations between state-specific prevalence (percentage) of resistant samples for a given combination of antibiotics/bacteria among catheter-associated urinary tract infections in the CDC Antibiotic Resistance Patient Safety Atlas data between 2011-2014 and rates of hospitalization with septicemia (ICD-9 codes 038.xx present on the discharge diagnosis) reported to the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), as well as rates of mortality with sepsis (ICD-10 codes A40-41.xx present on death certificate). ResultsAmong the different combinations of antibiotics/bacteria, prevalence of resistance to fluoroquinolones in E. coli had the strongest association with septicemia hospitalization rates for individuals aged over 50y, and with sepsis mortality rates for individuals aged 18-84y. A number of positive correlations between prevalence of resistance for different combinations of antibiotics/bacteria and septicemia hospitalization/sepsis mortality rates in adults were also found. ConclusionsOur findings, as well as our related work on the relation between antibiotic use and sepsis rates support the association between resistance to/use of certain antibiotics and rates of sepsis-related outcomes, suggesting the potential utility of antibiotic replacement.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

On the relative role of different age groups during epidemics associated with the respiratory syncytial virus

BackgroundWhile RSV circulation results in high burden of hospitalization, particularly among infants, young children and the elderly, little is known about the role of different age groups in propagating annual RSV epidemics in the community.\n\nMethodsDuring a communicable disease outbreak, some subpopulations may play a disproportionate role during the outbreak's ascent due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion that cases in a subpopulation represent among all cases in the population occurring before (Bp) and after the epidemic peak (Ap) to calculate the subpopulation's relative risk, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several age groups using data on RSV hospitalizations in the US between 2001-2012 from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP).\n\nResultsChildren aged 3-4y and 5-6y each had the highest RR estimate for 5/11 seasons in the data, with RSV hospitalization rates in infants being generally higher during seasons when children aged 5-6y had the highest RR estimates. Children aged 2y had the highest RR estimate during one season. RR estimates in infants and individuals aged 11y and older were mostly lower than in children aged 1-10y.\n\nConclusionsThe RR estimates suggest that preschool and young school-age children have the leading relative roles during RSV epidemics. We hope that those results will aid in the design of RSV vaccination policies.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Pediatric hospitalizations associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, and the frequency of asthma as a secondary diagnosis

BackgroundThere is uncertainty about the burden of hospitalization associated with RSV and influenza in children, including those with underlying medical conditions. MethodsWe applied previously developed methodology (Goldstein et al., Epidemiology 2012) to HealthCare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) hospitalization data and additional data related to asthma diagnosis/previous history in hospitalized children to estimate RSV and influenza-associated hospitalization rates in different subpopulations of US children between 2003-2010. ResultsThe estimated average annual rates (per 100,000 children) of RSV-associated hospitalization with a respiratory cause (ICD-9 codes 460-519) present anywhere in the discharge diagnosis were 2381 (95% CI(2252,2515)) in age <1y; 710.6(609.1,809.2) (age 1y); 395(327.7,462.4) (age 2y); 211.3(154.6,266.8) (age 3y); 111.1(62.4,160.1) (age 4y); 72.3(29.3,116.4) (ages 5-6y); 35.6(9.9,62.2) (ages 7-11y); and 39(17.5,60.6) (ages 12-17y). The corresponding rates of influenza-associated hospitalization were lower, ranging from 181(142.5,220.3) in age <1y to 17.9(11.7,24.2) in ages 12-17y. The relative risks for RSV-related hospitalization associated with a prior diagnosis of asthma in age groups under 5y ranged between 3.1(2.1,4.7) (age <1y) to 6.7(4.2,11.8) (age 2y); the corresponding risks for influenza-related hospitalization ranged from 2.8(2.1,4) (age <1y) to 4.9(3.8,6.4) (age 3y). ConclusionsRSV-associated hospitalization rates in young children are high and decline rapidly with age. Young children with an asthma diagnosis should be target groups for RSV and influenza-related mitigation efforts, possibly including RSV prophylaxis for the youngest children.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

On the relative role of different age groups during influenza A epidemics in Germany, 2002-2017

BackgroundThere is limited information about the role of different age groups, particularly subgroups of school-age children and younger adults in propagating influenza epidemics.\n\nMethodsFor a communicable disease outbreak, some subpopulations may play a disproportionate role during the ascent of the outbreak due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion that cases in a subpopulation represent among all cases in the population occurring before the epidemic peak (Bp), the corresponding proportion after the epidemic peak (Ap), to calculate the relative risk for a subpopulation, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several age groups using data on reported influenza A cases in Germany between 2002-2017.\n\nResultsChildren aged 14-17y had the highest RR estimates for 7 out of 15 influenza A epidemics in the data, including the 2009 pandemic, and the large 2016/17, 2008/09, and 2006/07 seasons. Children aged 10-13y had the highest RR estimates during 3 epidemics, including the large 2014/15 and 2004/05 seasons. Children aged 6-9y had the highest RR estimates during two epidemics, including the large 2012/13 season. Children aged 2-5y had the highest RR estimate during the moderate 2015/16 season; adults aged 18-24y had the highest RR estimate during the small 2005/06 season; adults aged 25-34y had the highest RR estimate during the large, 2002/03 season.\n\nConclusionsOur results support the prominent role of all school-age children, particularly the oldest ones, in propagating influenza epidemics in the community. We note that national vaccination coverage levels among older school-age children were lower than among younger school-age children during the recent influenza seasons in the US, and influenza vaccination program in England has not been phased in yet for secondary school students.

epidemiology↗