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Biology subjects

Goldstein, B. P.

Publications and source records attributed to Goldstein, B. P..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Ecological context shapes the interpretation of biodiversity intactness metrics

Developing biodiversity metrics that are both operational for decision-making and ecologically meaningful remains challenging. Mean Species Abundance (MSA) is widely used to quantify biodiversity intactness in applications including biodiversity scenario modeling, spatial assessment, policy and planning, and life cycle assessment (LCA). MSA compares species abundance under disturbed conditions with their abundance under a reference condition, but the pressure-impact relationships used to calculate it are generalized across studies and may not adequately represent variation among ecological contexts or taxonomic groups. This is particularly relevant when MSA is transferred across regions or used to support comparisons and environmental decision-making. We compiled biodiversity data from 7,064 forest fragments containing 21,761 species of arthropods, amphibians, birds, mammals, squamates, and plants across 11 biomes worldwide. We evaluated how MSA relates to broader ecological outcomes, including local and regional species richness and ecosystem productivity, and whether these relationships vary across ecological contexts (vegetation condition, landscape structure, and biome) and taxonomic groups. MSA was positively associated with local species richness and ecosystem productivity across all sites, but these associations weakened, disappeared, or reversed depending on ecological context and taxonomic group. For example, the MSA-productivity association held in only five of 11 biomes, and the MSA-regional richness association was negative in temperate conifer and boreal forests but positive in four other biomes. We propose a simple decision guide linking assessment goals, contextual evaluation, and interpretation to help identify when MSA can be used directly, when ecological context should guide its interpretation, and when complementary ecological information is needed. These findings may extend to other biodiversity metrics that compare impacted conditions with reference states and apply generalized impact relationships across ecological contexts and taxonomic groups.

ecology↗

Prior low-severity fires reduce the risk of persistent forest loss from subsequent fires

Intensifying fire regimes threaten forests globally, but the risk of persistent post-fire forest loss and its potential mitigation remains poorly quantified. We analyzed millions of wildfires worldwide from 2001 to 2024 and tracked recovery in satellite-observed forest structure and ecosystem function. Post-fire persistent forest loss, indicated by modeled non-recovery to pre-fire conditions over decadal timescales, affected 57.1% of burned forest area globally since 2001, with hotspots in Pacific temperate and southern boreal forests. We then identified 'crucial fires' as events exceeding a stringent modeled-risk probability threshold for persistent structural or functional non-recovery, with fire severity strongly predicting this loss. This severity dependence revealed a management pathway, as locations with prior low-severity fire experienced lower severity in subsequent wildfires and had lower modeled probability of becoming crucial. Under a model-based counterfactual scenario, applying the estimated severity attenuation was associated with a 7.6% reduction; the top 1% of road-accessible areas accounted for 35% of this reduction. These results provide a global framework for identifying where wildfire threatens forest resistance and where targeted low-severity fire management like prescribed fire might be used to combat global forest loss.

ecology↗