Search bioRxivSearch

Biology subjects

Getz, W.

Publications and source records attributed to Getz, W..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Spores and soil from six sides: interdisciplinarity and the environmental biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)

Environmentally Transmitted Diseases Are Comparatively Poorly Understood And Managed, And Their Ecology Is Particularly Understudied. Here We Identify Challenges Of Studying Environmental Transmission And Persistence With A Six-Sided Interdisciplinary Review Of The Biology Of Anthrax (Bacillus Anthracis). Anthrax Is A Zoonotic Disease Capable Of Maintaining Infectious Spore Banks In Soil For Decades (Or Even Potentially Centuries), And The Mechanisms Of Its Environmental Persistence Have Been The Topic Of Significant Research And Controversy. Where Anthrax Is Endemic, It Plays An Important Ecological Role, Shaping The Dynamics Of Entire Herbivore Communities. The Complex Eco-Epidemiology Of Anthrax, And The Mysterious Biology Of Bacillus Anthracis During Its Environmental Stage, Have Necessitated An Interdisciplinary Approach To Pathogen Research. Here, We Illustrate Different Disciplinary Perspectives Through Key Advances Made By Researchers Working In Etosha National Park, A Long-Term Ecological Research Site In Namibia That Has Exemplified The Complexities Of AnthraxS Enzootic Process Over Decades Of Surveillance. In Etosha, The Role Of Scavengers And Alternate Routes (Waterborne Transmission And Flies) Has Proved Unimportant, Relative To The Long-Term Persistence Of Anthrax Spores In Soil And Their Infection Of Herbivore Hosts. Carcass Deposition Facilitates Green-Ups Of Vegetation To Attract Herbivores, Potentially Facilitated By Anthrax Spores Role In The Rhizosphere. The Underlying Seasonal Pattern Of Vegetation, And Herbivores Immune And Behavioral Responses To Anthrax Risk, Interact To Produce Regular \"Anthrax Seasons\" That Appear To Be A Stable Feature Of The Etosha Ecosystem. Through The Lens Of Microbiologists, Geneticists, Immunologists, Ecologists, Epidemiologists, And Clinicians, We Discuss How Anthrax Dynamics Are Shaped At The Smallest Scale By Population Genetics And Interactions Within The Bacterial Communities Up To The Broadest Scales Of Ecosystem Structure. We Illustrate The Benefits And Challenges Of This Interdisciplinary Approach To Disease Ecology, And Suggest Ways Anthrax Might Offer Insights Into The Biology Of Other Important Pathogens. Bacillus Anthracis, And The More Recently Emerged Bacillus Cereus Biovar Anthracis, Share Key Features With Other Environmentally-Transmitted Pathogens, Including Several Zoonoses And Panzootics Of Special Interest For Global Health And Conservation Efforts. Understanding The Dynamics Of Anthrax, And Developing Interdisciplinary Research Programs That Explore Environmental Persistence, Is A Critical Step Forward For Understanding These Emerging Threats.

ecology

Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States

Ecologists are increasingly involved in the pandemic prediction process. In the course of the Zika outbreak in the Americas, several ecological models were developed to forecast the potential global distribution of the disease. Conflicting results produced by alternative methods are unresolved, hindering the development of appropriate public health forecasts. We compare ecological niche models and experimentally-driven mechanistic forecasts for Zika transmission in the continental United States, a region of high model conflict. We use generic and uninformed stochastic county-level simulations to demonstrate the downstream epidemiological consequences of conflict among ecological models, and show how assumptions and parameterization in the ecological and epidemiological models propagate uncertainty and produce downstream model conflict. We conclude by proposing a basic consensus method that could resolve conflicting models of potential outbreak geography and seasonality. Our results illustrate the unacceptable and often undocumented margin of uncertainty that could emerge from using any one of these predictions without reservation or qualification. In the short term, ecologists face the task of developing better post hoc consensus that accurately forecasts spatial patterns of Zika virus outbreaks. Ultimately, methods are needed that bridge the gap between ecological and epidemiological approaches to predicting transmission and realistically capture both outbreak size and geography.

ecology