Biology subjects

Geerling, G.

Publications and source records attributed to Geerling, G..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Implications of future change scenarios for mosquito-borne disease transmission in the Netherlands

BackgroundMosquito-borne virus transmission is shaped by its ecological context, including land use, climate, and population dynamics. Future changes in these factors may therefore affect the risk and intensity of Usutu virus (USUV) and West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in the Netherlands. Methodology & findingsWe compared a reference scenario to four future Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios developed for the Netherlands, which differed in land use, host distribution, mosquito distribution, and temperature. Temperature (between +1.0{degrees}C and +1.7{degrees}C) and mosquito abundance (between +5% and +10%) were predicted to increase during the transmission season across the scenarios. Scenario effects on hosts differed between species. We found that outbreak size and growth rate were expected to increase in all future scenarios for both USUV and WNV. These effects were most pronounced early in the season and in scenarios characterised by a high temperature increase and little concern about environmental change. Changes in outbreak risk differed between locations due to spatial variation in changes in host and vector abundance ConclusionsAcross a range of possible future scenarios, USUV and WNV outbreaks are expected to become larger, grow faster, and last longer. This is mostly driven by increased temperatures, highlighting the importance of climate mitigation measures to reduce disease outbreak risk and impact.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

The future abundance of key bird species for pathogen transmission in the Netherlands

Wild birds serve as reservoirs and vectors for many different pathogens and changes in their distribution and abundance due to environmental change will influence disease risk. We study three species which are highly abundant in north-western Europe and which can transmit a wide range of diseases including avian influenza and West Nile virus: blackbirds, mallards and house sparrows. Using the Netherlands as a case study, we created random forest models for predicting the distribution and abundance of these species, both now and in the future. Climate, land use and vegetative cover were all important predictors of bird abundance. The three species had different spatial distributions, largely related to their preferred habitat and food availability. In the future, mallard and house sparrow populations were predicted to increase, while there was little change for blackbirds. Quantifying the consequences of these abundance changes is complicated as there are many factors to consider, however increased pathogen reservoirs will likely increase disease risk and changes in distribution may affect local outbreak risk. The future abundance maps created in this study, and the methods used to create them, will be useful tools for disease modellers and policymakers to estimate future disease risk and to plan accordingly.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Decrease in Microbial Diversity Along a Pollution Gradient in Citarum River Sediment

Pollution of water resources is a major risk to human health and water quality throughout the world. Here, we studied the effect of river pollution on the microbial community composition in the Citarum River Basin, West Java, Indonesia. Sediment was collected at six sampling points along a gradient of pollution, from the pristine source of the river to the heavily polluted downstream site in the densely populated urban area of Bandung. After DNA extraction, microbial diversity and potential for nitrogen cycling were analyzed based on 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and metagenomics. Comparing the pristine sediment to the polluted site showed a lower microbial diversity and higher dominance of anaerobic processes than at the polluted site. The most dominant phylum within the Bacteria were the Proteobacteria, which shifted from Beta- and Deltaproteobacteria in the pristine site to Alpha- and Gammaproteobacteria in the polluted sediment. With pollution Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Firmicutes increased in relative abundance. Relative high abundance of Soil Crenarchaeotic group was found in all sample sites, whilst the methanogenic archaea became more abundant with increased pollution and anaerobicity. The study of the nitrogen cycling potential revealed that ammonium oxidation and denitrification appeared to be abundant processes in the pristine site, whereas ammonification seemed to be more important in the polluted site. Increased water treatment would restore water quality and microbial diversity in Citarum river sediments.

microbiology↗