Biology subjects

Gawinowski, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Gawinowski, M..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Evaluating crop models for future climate scenarios: wheat yield predictions using APSIM and STICS under combined CO2, warming, and water deficit conditions

Crop models are essential for predicting climate change impacts on agriculture, yet their validation under multi-stress conditions remains limited. This study evaluated two widely-used wheat models, APSIM and STICS, using data from three Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments (USA, Germany, Australia) combining elevated CO2 (eCO2), water deficit, and warming. Environmental characterisation using simulation-based stress indices revealed that intended "controls" frequently experienced hidden heat and water stress, meaning models were calibrated on crops already undergoing physiological adjustments. Evaluation of simulated yield and components revealed a clear hierarchy in prediction errors (RRMSE): unlimited conditions (3-9%) < single stress (4-27%, with a need to improve response to heat stress) < combined stress (17-123%). Elevated CO2 generally increased prediction uncertainty for crops experiencing water stress. Our results suggest that current stress functions from the models fail to capture the synergistic coupling between drought and heat stress. This highlights the urgent need for more mechanistic modelling to improve the reliability of climate change impact assessments.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Plant plasticity in the face of climate change - CO2 offsetting effects to warming and water deficit in wheat. A review.

Future crop production will depend on plant plasticity in response to increases in atmospheric CO2, mean temperature, heatwave and drought events. The present review intends to highlight the impact of interactions between high CO2 levels, warming and water deficit in existing published experimental data in the case of wheat. To do so, we identified experiments quantifying the effects of such interactions on traits related to crop productivity and water use. We used the collected data to estimate plasticity indices assessing compensation and interaction between elevated CO2 and adverse climatic conditions, bringing a new perspective on the matter. In the studied data, even though there is an important variability, we found that crop productivity tends to decrease despite the positive effects of the rise in CO2 concentration. Conversely, with elevated CO2, water consumption tends to decrease despite the warmer conditions. We hypothesized that the positive effect of CO2 on crop productivity is greater under drought conditions, which is confirmed in 54% of the experiments. This review highlights the need to acquire further experimental data under possible future conditions to calibrate and validate crop models: their range of validity requires more thorough testing under the wide range of projected environmental conditions.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2025

Refining type and timing of measured crop variables for the calibration of a new winter wheat cultivar in the STICS crop model

Crop models need to be regularly upgraded with parametrization for new cultivars but this requires calibration, which is a major challenge. With winter wheat cultivar Rubisko as a case study, we propose to apply a calibration protocol to estimate the parameters of this new cultivar with multi-trials experimental data. We tested the calibration protocol in different conditions including or not LAI and/or biomass experimental data and we found that the resulting LAI and biomass dynamics strongly diverge. Several key findings emerge from this study: (1) RUE parameters should be excluded from the calibration process, as their critical role in biomass dynamics causes the optimization algorithm to treat them as adjustment parameters, resulting in unrealistic values for multiple parameters; (2) either LAI or biomass variables alone are sufficient for calibration, enabling experimental efforts to focus on one variable rather than both; and (3) the use of a synthetic dataset has facilitated the identification of the optimal type and timing of data collection needed to parameterize a new variety in the model. Moreover, the proposed methodology offers extrapolatable solutions applicable to other contexts (e.g., different models or datasets) and provides guidance on acquiring the most effective dataset for optimal calibration. The unbalanced structure of our dataset also highlighted the need to mobilize other calibration criteria (weighted RMSE) and alternative solutions to bridge the gap between quantitative metrics and empirical visual assessments.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Contrasted phenotypic plasticities of life-history traits in interacting plants: case of pure vs mixed stands of wheat

ContextMixing cultivars is an agroecological practice of crop diversification, increasingly used for cereals. The yield of such cereal mixtures is higher on average than the mean yield of their components in pure stands, but with a large variance. The drivers of this variance are plant- plant interactions leading to different plant phenotypes in pure and mixed stands, i.e phenotypic plasticity. ObjectivesThe objectives were (i) to quantify the magnitude of phenotypic plasticity for yield in pure versus mixed stands, (ii) to identify the yield components that contribute the most to yield plasticity, and (iii) to link such plasticities to differences in functional traits, i.e. plant height and flowering earliness. MethodsA new experimental design based on a precision sowing allowed phenotyping each cultivar in mixture, at the level of individual plants, for above-ground traits throughout growth. Eight commercial cultivars of Triticum aestivum L. were grown in pure and mixed stands in field plots repeated for two years (2019-2020, 2020-2021) with contrasted climatic conditions and with nitrogen fertilization, fungicide and weed removal management strategies. Two quaternary mixtures were assembled with cultivars contrasted either for height or earliness. ResultsCompared to the average of cultivars in pure stands, the height mixture strongly underyielded over both years (-29%) while the earliness mixture overyielded the second year (+11%) and underyielded the first year (-8%). The second year, the magnitude of cultivars grain weight plasticity, measured as the difference between pure and mixed stands, was significantly and positively associated with their relative yield differences in pure stands (R2=0.51). When grain weight plasticity, measured as the log ratio of pure over mixed stands, was partitioned as the sum of plasticities in each yield component, its strongest contributor was the plasticity in spike number per plant ([~]56% of the sum), driven by even stronger but opposed underlying plasticities in both tiller emission and regression. For both years, the plasticity in tiller emission was significantly, positively associated with the height differentials between cultivars in mixture (R2=0.43 in 2019-2020 and 0.17 in 2020-2021). ConclusionsPlasticity in the early recognition of potential resource competitors is a major component of cultivar strategies in mixtures, as shown here for tillering dynamics. Our results also highlighted a link between plasticity in tiller emission and height differential in mixture. Both height and tillering dynamics displayed plasticities typical of the shade avoidance syndrome. ImplicationsBoth the new experimental design and decomposition of plasticities developed in this study open avenues to better study plant-plant interactions in agronomically-realistic conditions. This study also contributed a unique, plant-level data set allowing the calibration of process-based plant models to explore the space of all possible mixtures.

plant biology↗