Biology subjects

Garcia-Carreras, B.

Publications and source records attributed to Garcia-Carreras, B..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2021

Periodic synchronization of dengue epidemics in Thailand: the roles played by temperature and immunity

The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, the largest impacts of climate change on dengue might be in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last thirty years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronization events. We show that patterns in synchrony of dengue are consistent with those observed in temperature. Applying a temperature-driven dengue model, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed multiannual dynamics and patterns in synchrony. While multiannual oscillations are readily produced by immunity in absence of multiannual timescales in temperature, synchrony in temperature can synchronise dengue dynamics in different locations. However, at higher mean temperatures and lower seasonal variation, immune dynamics become more predominant, and dengue dynamics become more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise. Author summary

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Metabolic rates of prokaryotic microbes may inevitably rise with global warming

Understanding how the metabolic rates of prokaryotes respond to temperature is fun-damental to our understanding of how ecosystem functioning will be altered by climate change, as these micro-organisms are major contributors to global carbon efflux. Ecological metabolic theory suggests that species living at higher temperatures evolve higher growth rates than those in cooler niches due to thermodynamic constraints. Here, using a global prokaryotic dataset, we find that maximal growth rate at thermal optimum increases with temperature for mesophiles (temperature optima [lsim] 45{degrees}C), but not thermophiles ({gtrsim} 45{degrees}C). Furthermore, short-term (within-day) thermal responses of prokaryotic metabolic rates are typically more sensitive to warming than those of eukaryotes. Given that climatic warming will mostly impact ecosystems in the mesophilic temperature range, we conclude that as microbial communities adapt to higher temperatures, their metabolic rates and therefore, carbon efflux, will inevitably rise. Using a mathematical model, we illustrate the potential global impacts of these findings.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Metabolic traits predict the effects of warming on phytoplankton competition

Understanding how changes in temperature affect interspecific competition is critical for predicting changes in ecological communities as the climate warms. Here we develop a simple theoretical model that links interspecific differences in metabolic traits, which capture the temperature-dependence of resource acquisition, to the outcome of pairwise competition in phytoplankton. We parameterised our model with metabolic traits derived from six species of freshwater phytoplankton and tested its ability to predict the outcome of competition in all pairwise combinations of the species in a factorial experiment, manipulating temperature and nutrient availability. The model correctly predicted the outcome of competition in 71% of the pairwise experiments. These results demonstrate that metabolic traits play a key role in determining how changes in temperature influence interspecific competition and lay the foundation for developing theory to predict the effects of warming in complex, multi-species communities.

ecology↗