Biology subjects

Galvis, J. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Galvis, J. A..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Identifying control strategies to eliminate African swine fever from the United States swine industry in under 12 months

With the rising risk of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into the U.S., there is substantial emphasis on preparation for an epidemic to mitigate the economic and societal impacts. Mathematical models represent a vital tool for simulating future epidemics and examining the effectiveness of response strategies. This study expands on our spatially explicit stochastic compartmental farm-level transmission model, PigSpread-ASF, to identify the control strategies necessary to eliminate ASF from domestic swine populations in three, six, nine, and twelve months. We achieved this by incrementally increasing the intensity of the control actions detailed in the USDAs national response plan, which consists of i) quarantine and depopulation of detected farms; ii) a 72-hour movement standstill; iii) contact tracing with subsequent diagnostic testing; and iv) the implementation of control areas (infected and buffer zone) and surveillance zones (including routine diagnostic testing, pre-permit testing and movement restrictions). For this model, ASF was deemed eliminated after three consecutive months of no new ASF cases following each time period, as determined by WOAH. Our results indicate that the current national response plan would need to i) increase radii and duration of control areas and surveillance zones, ii) extend the traceback and quarantine for contact farms; iii) extend the movement standstill; iv) prohibit repopulation of depopulated farms; and v) quicker baseline detection of ASF, at varying intensities, to eliminate ASF within three, six, nine and twelve months. The elimination of ASF in 12-months required extension of the buffer zone radius to 5 km and maintenance of the control areas and surveillance zones for 60 days, a traceback and quarantine of 60 and 30 days for the contact tracing, and a standstill of 30 days. In contrast, the three-month scenario required extension of the infected zone, buffer zone and surveillance zone radii to 20 km each and maintenance of the control area and surveillance zones for 90 days, a traceback and quarantine of 90 days for contact tracing, and a standstill of 90 days. By intensifying the current national response plan, ASF would likely be eliminated within 12-months of its introduction. However, it is pertinent to consider the limitations posed by resource capacities and the impact that intensifying control may have on business continuity. Nevertheless, our study provides beneficial guidance to aid preparation for a future ASF introduction and estimates the infrastructure and personnel required to bring an epidemic under control promptly.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Estimating sampling and laboratory capacity for a simulated African swine fever outbreak in the United States

The introduction of African swine fever virus (ASFV) into uninfected countries can impact economic and animal welfare. Rapid detection and control of the outbreak contribute to successful eradication and promote business continuity. We developed a model to determine the number of samples, sample collectors, laboratory capacity, and processing times following an ASFV introduction into the U.S. We simulated the spread of ASFV in one densely populated swine region, generating a median of 27 (range = 1-68) outbreaks in 150 days, resulting 616 (range = 1-15,011) sampling events with a total of 3,068 barns (range = 7-69,118) sampled. We calculated the total sample collectors needed, considering daily working hours, sampling and driving time, and laboratory capabilities with and without blood sample pooling. Samples included 31 blood samples and five oral fluid samples per barn, which equal 84,830 (range = 52-2,066,831) and 14,195 (range = 10-345,590) blood and oral fluid samples, respectively. The median number of sample collectors needed to prevent sampling delay varied from 136 to 367 and, in the worst epidemic scenarios, from 833 to 3,115. Notably, excluding downtime-which prevented the sampler from visiting additional farms for 24 or 72 hours-reduced the number of sample collectors needed between 28% and 75%, while switching from blood to oral fluid samples reduced this number between 47% and 75%. At a laboratory processing daily capacity of 1,000 samples, the median days for sample processing without pooling were 92 days, with a maximum of 5.7 years. We demonstrated a need to redistribute 10,062 (range = 2-67,940) unprocessed samples daily to other laboratories to prevent processing delays. Our study addresses the challenge of efficiently organizing resources for managing a potential ASFV outbreak, providing information about the number of sample collectors and laboratory capacity needed for one densely populated swine region in the U.S.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Modeling the effects of vaccination against multiple strains of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome at the barn level

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRSV) remains costly for the swine industry. Measures intended to irradicate or reduce the prevalence of PRRSV have limited effectiveness. Vaccination, the primary control strategy for PRRSV, has yet to be thoroughly investigated to ensure an optimal strategy is being implemented. Due to insufficient cross-immunity between strains, it is prudent to administer the most influential vaccine for the most dominant or threatening PRRSV strain in circulation at a given time. With this in mind, we demonstrated the benefits of targeted vaccination using metapopulation-based modeling. By using up-to-date data describing real farms to simulate the effects of variable vaccine efficacy in both a single and a double strain system, we showed that tailoring vaccines to prevalent PRRSV strains reduces infections, but using multiple vaccines may be more effective if strains vary in vaccine response. Therefore, the impact of the strain-specific effectiveness of market vaccines, paired with computational methods that allow tracking the effects on PRRVS dissemination at individual barns.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Modeling the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within commercial swine barns: Quantifying the contribution of multiple transmission pathways

Transmission of the African swine fever virus (ASFV) within commercial swine barns occurs through direct and indirect pathways. Identifying and quantifying the roles of ASFV dissemination within barns is crucial for the development of effective disease control strategies. We developed a stochastic transmission model to examine the ASFV dissemination dynamics through eight transmission routes within commercial swine barns. We consider seven transmission routes at three disease dynamics levels: within-pens, between-pens, and within-room transmission, along with the transfer of pigs between pens within the same room. We simulated ASFV spread within barns of various sizes and layouts from rooms with a median of 32 pens (IQR:28-40), where each pen housing a median of 34 pigs (IQR: 29-36). Our model enables the tracking of the viral load in each pen and the monitoring of the disease status at the pen level. Simulation results show that between-pen transmission pathways exhibited the highest contribution to ASFV spread, accounting for 71.4%, where within-pen and within-room pathways account for 20.1% and 8.5%, respectively. Among the direct transmission pathways, nose-to-nose contact between pens was the primary route of dissemination, comprising an average of 49%, while the fecal transmission between pens contributed 21%. On the other hand, aerosol transmission within pens had the lowest contribution, accounting for less than 1%. Furthermore, we show that the daily transfer of pigs between pens did not impact the spread of ASFV. The combination of passive surveillance of daily detection and active surveillance focused on mortality allowed the detection of ASFV within three Days, with peak detection occurring when mortality rates peaked. The model also allows us to pinpoint where the majority of infections and viral load are concentrated during the ASFV spread. This work significantly deepens our understanding of ASFV spread within commercial swine production farms in the U.S. and highlights the main transmission pathways that should be prioritized when implementing ASFV countermeasure actions at the room level.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Modeling the impact of optimized airflow and sick pen management on the spread of infectious diseases in swine barns

The airborne spread of infectious livestock diseases plays a crucial role in the propagation of epidemics, particularly in populations confined to densely populated facilities, such as commercial swine barns. Therefore, quantitative assessments for the performance of barn ventilation systems may serve as an alternative biocontainment control strategy to reduce the spread of infectious pathogens. In this study, we present a framework to simulate airborne disease dissemination within swine barns and facilitate the strategic design of control actions, including optimization of ventilation and placement of sick animals (sick pen). This framework is based on a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that accounts for the between-pen disease spread within swine barns. A pen-to-pen contact network is used to construct a transmission matrix according to the transport of airborne respiratory pathogens across pens in the barns, via our Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. By employing this CFD-augmented SIR model, we demonstrated that the location of the sick pen and the barn ventilation configuration played crucial roles in modifying disease dissemination dynamics at the barn level. In addition, we examined the effect of natural ventilation through different curtain adjustments. We observed that curtain adjustments either suppress the disease spread by an average of 56.5% or exacerbate the outbreak potential by an average of 5.7%, compared to the scenario where side curtains are not raised. Furthermore, we optimize the ventilation configuration via the selection and placement of ventilation fans through the integration of the CFD-augmented framework with the genetic algorithm to minimize the dissemination of swine disease within barns. Compared to regular barn ventilation settings, our optimized ventilation system significantly reduced disease spread by an average of 43.2%. Our study emphasizes the role of airborne transmission and a strategy for sick pen management in controlling the spread of within-barn disease.

bioengineering↗

bioRxiv2022

Estimating the effectiveness of control and eradication actions on African swine fever transmission in commercial swine populations in the United States

Given the proximity of African swine fever (ASF) to the U.S., there is an urgent need to better understand the possible dissemination pathways of the virus within the U.S. swine industry and to evaluate mitigation strategies. Here, we extended PigSpread, a farm-level spatially-explicit stochastic compartmental transmission model incorporating six transmission routes including between-farm swine movements, vehicle movements, and local spread, to model the dissemination of ASF. We then examined the effectiveness of control actions similar to the ASF national response plan. The average number of secondary infections during the first 60 days of the outbreak was 49 finisher farms, 17 nursery farms, 5 sow farms, and less than one farm in other production types. The between-farm movements of swine were the predominant route of ASF transmission with an average contribution of 71.1%, while local spread and movement of vehicles were less critical with average contributions of 14.6% and 14.4%. We demonstrated that the combination of quarantine, depopulation, movement restrictions, contact tracing, and enhanced surveillance, was the most effective mitigation strategy, resulting in an average reduction of 79.0% of secondary cases by day 140 of the outbreak. Implementing these control actions led to a median of 495,619 depopulated animals, 357,789 diagnostic tests, and 54,522 movement permits. Our results suggest that the successful elimination of an ASF outbreak is likely to require the deployment of all control actions listed in the ASF national response plan for more than 140 days, as well as estimating the resources needed for depopulation, testing, and movement permits under these controls.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Modelling porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus dynamics to quantify the contribution of multiple modes of transmission: between-farm animal and vehicle movements, farm-to-farm proximity, feed ingredients, and re-break

Accounting for multiple modes of livestock disease dissemination in epidemiological models remains a challenge. We developed and calibrated a mathematical model for transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), tailored to fit nine modes of between-farm transmission pathways including: farm-to-farm proximity (local transmission), contact network of batches of pigs transferred between farms (pig movements), re-break probabilities for farms with previous PRRSV outbreaks, with the addition of four different contact networks of transportation vehicles (vehicles to transport pigs to farms, pigs to markets, feed and crew) and the amount of animal by-products within feed ingredients (e.g. animal fat or meat and bone meal). The model was calibrated on weekly PRRSV outbreaks data. We assessed the role of each transmission pathway considering the dynamics of specific types of production (i.e., sow, nursery). Although our results estimated that the networks formed by transportation vehicles were more densely connected than the network of pigs transported between-farms, pig movements and farm proximity were the main PRRSV transmission routes regardless of farm types. Among the four vehicle networks, vehicles transporting pigs to farms explained a large proportion of infections, sow = 20.9%; nursery = 15%; and finisher = 20.6%. The animal by-products showed a limited association with PRRSV outbreaks through descriptive analysis, and our model results showed that the contribution of animal fat contributed only 2.5% and meat and bone meal only 0.03% of the infected sow farms. Our work demonstrated the contribution of multiple routes of PRRSV dissemination, which has not been deeply explored before. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for cautious, measured PRRSV control strategies for transportation vehicles and further research for feed by-products modeling. Finally, this study provides valuable information and opportunities for the swine industry to focus effort on the most relevant modes of PRRSV between-farm transmission.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Transmission and control strategies for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus

Many aspects of the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) between-farm transmission dynamics have been investigated, but uncertainty remains about the significance of farm type and different transmission routes on PRRSV spread. We developed a stochastic epidemiological model calibrated on weekly PRRSV outbreaks accounting for the population dynamics in different pig production phases, breeding herds, gilt development units, nurseries, and finisher farms, of three hog producer companies. Our model accounted for indirect contacts by the close distance between farms (local transmission), between-farm animal movements (pig flow), and reinfection of sow farms (re-break). The fitted model was used to examine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies and complementary interventions such as enhanced PRRSV detection and vaccination delays and forecast the spatial distribution of PRRSV outbreak. The results of our analysis indicated that for sow farms, 59% of the simulated infections were related to local transmission (e.g. airborne, feed deliveries, shared equipment) whereas 36% and 5% were related to animal movements and re-break, respectively. For nursery farms, 80% of infections were related to animal movements and 20% to local transmission; while at finisher farms it was split between local transmission and animal movements. Assuming that the current vaccines are 1% effective in mitigating between-farm PRRSV transmission, weaned pigs vaccination would reduce the incidence of PRRSV outbreaks by 2%, indeed under any scenario vaccination alone was insufficient for completely controlling PRRSV spread. Our results also showed that intensifying PRRSV detection and/or vaccination pigs at placement increased the effectiveness of all simulated vaccination strategies. Our model reproduced the incidence and PRRSV spatial distribution; therefore, this model could also be used to map current and future farms at-risk. Finally, this model could be a useful tool for veterinarians, allowing them to identify the effect of transmission routes and different vaccination interventions to control PRRSV spread.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Quantifying the dynamics of pig movements improve targeted disease surveillance and control plans

Tracking animal movements over time can fundamentally determine the success of disease control interventions throughout targeting farms that are tightly connected. In commercial pig production, animals are transported between farms based on growth stages, thus it generates time-varying contact networks that will influence the dynamics of disease spread. Still, risk-based surveillance strategies are mostly based on a static network. In this study, we reconstructed the static and temporal pig networks of one Brazilian state from 2017 to 2018, comprising 351,519 movements and 48 million transported pigs. The static networks failed to capture time-respecting movement pathways. Therefore, we propose a time-dependent network susceptible-infected (SI) model to simulate the temporal spread of an epidemic over the pig network globally through the temporal movement of animals among farms, and locally with a stochastic compartmental model in each farm, configured to calculate the minimum number of target farms needed to achieve effective disease control. In addition, we propagated disease on the pig temporal network to calculate the cumulative contacts as a proxy of epidemic sizes and evaluated the impact of network-based disease control strategies. The results show that targeting the first 1,000 farms ranked by degree would be sufficient and feasible to diminish disease spread considerably. Our finding also suggested that assuming a worst-case scenario in which every movement transmit disease, pursuing farms by degree would limit the transmission to up to 29 farms over the two years period, which is lower than the number of infected farms for random surveillance, with epidemic sizes of 2,593 farms. The top 1,000 farms could benefit from enhanced biosecurity plans and improved surveillance, which constitute important next steps in strategizing targeted disease control interventions. Overall, the proposed modeling framework provides a parsimonious solution for targeted disease surveillance when temporal movement data is available.

ecology↗