Biology subjects

Ferretti, L.

Publications and source records attributed to Ferretti, L..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Natural selection driven by escape from shifting antibody classes shapes SARS-CoV-2 evolution

The phenotypic fitness landscape defines the action of natural selection on pathogens, linking changes in their phenotypes to transmission and evolution. The rapidly changing nature of epidemic spread and antigenic landscapes pushes viruses to evolve on fitness seascapes. As a result, evolution of viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 proceeds in a neverending series of waves, driven by epistatic interactions and by the arms race between viral adaptation and human immunity. Phenotypic characterisation of these rapidly changing fitness seascapes is an open challenge. Using a Phenotypic Selection Inference framework that links phylogenetic estimates of mutation fitness effects with deep mutational scanning data, we traced how selective pressures on viral phenotypes have shifted throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Natural selection has favoured enhanced ACE2 binding since the emergence of SARS-COV-2, with relatively constant selective pressure even for the most recent variants. The strength of selection for antibody escape was comparable to ACE2 binding during early evolution, but as population immunity rose, escape from class 3 and then class 2 antibodies became dominant. For variants circulating in 2024, natural selection shifted toward class 3 antibody escape, while those circulating in 2025 have experienced dynamic, rapidly changing pressures for escape from all antibody classes. These transitions reflect an ongoing arms race between viral adaptation and human immunity. Our findings reveal that SARS-CoV-2 antigenic evolution is governed by dynamic, class-specific immune pressures, and that selection for replication capacity has been continuously present during the pandemic, presumably to compensate for the effects of antigenic escape on viral replication. Our approach for the inference of phenotypic selection provides a framework to understand and anticipate the evolution of future variants.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2026

Genetic signatures of adaptation to sudden, extreme, and unprecedented environmental changes

Small natural populations are increasingly exposed to environmental shifts that are unprecedented in speed and intensity on population-genetics timescales. If populations persist, adaptation to these abrupt changes is expected to leave localized footprints of selection around the loci contributing to the adaptive response, in contrast to genome-wide signals produced by demography alone. Here we provide an explicit theoretical description of genetic footprints expected under rapid adaptation from standing genetic variation. We derive exact analytical results for how single-locus sweeps and polygenic shifts driven by sudden environmental changes distort the site-frequency spectrum (SFS) of linked mutations, and we link these distortions to the expected changes in standard diversity measures and neutrality statistics. Our results provide a guideline for detecting and interpreting genetic signatures of adaptation to extreme events, including those associated with climate change, particularly in small populations where adaptation or evolutionary rescue often proceed quickly and from preexisting variation.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2026

Bias in diversity estimators and neutrality tests induced by neutral polymorphic structural variants

Estimators of genetic diversity and neutrality tests derived from the site frequency spectrum (SFS), such as Wattersons{theta} W, nucleotide diversity{pi} , Tajimas D, and Fay and Wus H, are designed to be interpreted relative to a baseline defined by the standard neutral SFS. In genomic regions strongly linked to a polymorphic structural variant (SV), deviations from these baselines occur even under strict neutrality: conditioning on an SV at known frequency partitions samples into SV and non-SV haplotypes and distorts the SFS for linked neutral mutations. These deviations are well understood for genomic inversions under long-term balancing selection. However, not all SVs are under strong selection, and the evolution of some SVs may be better approximated as neutral. Here we derive analytical expectations for the unfolded (and, when necessary, folded) SFS of single nucleotide polymorphisms conditional on neutral linked polymorphic SVs, including inversions, deletions, insertions, and introgressions. We use these expectations to quantify the resulting bias in standard diversity estimators and neutrality tests as a function of SV frequency and type. Finally, we discuss approaches to build corrected estimators of diversity and neutrality tests that are unbiased/centered after accounting for the presence and frequency of the SV.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2024

Biased estimates of phylogenetic branch lengths resulting from the discretised Gamma model of site rate heterogeneity

A standard method in phylogenetic reconstruction for representing variation in substitution rates between sites in the genome is the discrete Gamma model (DGM). Relative rates are assumed to be distributed according to a discretised Gamma distribution, where the probabilities that a site is included in each class are equal. Here, we identify a serious bias in the branch lengths of reconstructed phylogenies when the DGM is used, with the magnitude of the effect varying with the number of sequences in the alignment. We demonstrate the existence of the bias in both simulated dataset and using real HIV-1 sequences; in both cases branch lengths are overestimated. We show that the alternative "FreeRate" model, which assumes no parametric distribution and allows the class probabilities to vary, is not subject to the issue. We further establish that the reason for the behaviour is the equal class probabilities, not the discretisation itself. We explore the mathematics of for the phenomenon, showing how maximum likelihood branch lengths under the DGM may differ from the true ones used to generate the tree, and that branch lengths will be overestimated where there is a long-tail of fast-evolving sites in the true rate distribution, which is the usual situation in real datasets. We recommend that the DGM be retired from general use. While FreeRate is an immediately available replacement, it is known to be difficult to fit, and thus there is scope for innovation in rate heterogeneity models.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Directional predictions of HIV transmission with optimised genomics in cohorts of serodiscordant couples

Viral genetic information from people living with HIV can deepen our understanding of the infections epidemiology at many scales. To better understand the potentials and limits of tools that utilise such information, we show the performance of two representative tools (HIV-TRACE and phyloscanner) in describing HIV transmission dynamics, with different types of genetic data, and compare with previous findings. The samples were collected from three cohort studies in Sub-Saharan Africa and were deep sequenced to produce both short Illumina reads and long PacBio reads. By comparing phyloscanners performance with short and long reads, we show that long reads provide improved phylogenetic resolution for the classic transmission topology in joint within-host trees. Our pipeline accurately predicted the direction of transmission 88%-92% of the time. We also show that the timing of sample collection plays an important role in the reconstruction of directionality using deep sequencing data. Consensus sequences were also generated and used as HIV-TRACE input to show different patterns of clustering sensitivity and specificity for data from different genomic regions or the entire genome. Finally, we discuss adjusting expectations about sensitivity and specificity of different types of sequence data, considering rapid pathogen evolution, and highlight the potentials of high within-host phylogenetic resolution in HIV. In conclusion, viral genetic data collected and presented differently could greatly influence our ability to describe the underlying dynamics. Methods for source attribution analysis have reached levels of superior accuracy. However, residual uncertainty emphasizes sequence analysis alone cannot conclusively prove linkage at the individual level. ImportanceUnderstanding HIV transmission dynamics is key to designing effective HIV testing and prevention strategies. By using different sequencing techniques on well-characterised cohorts, we were able to evaluate the effect of genetic data resolution on the accuracy of identifying likely transmission pairs and the direction of transmission within pairs. We find that the longer reads generated by PacBio sequencing are more suitable for transmission analyses.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2022

Viral burdens are associated with age and viral variant in a population-representative study of SARS-CoV-2 that accounts for time-since-infection related sampling bias.

In this study, we evaluated the impact of viral variant, in addition to other variables, on within-host viral burdens, by analysing cycle threshold (Ct) values derived from nose and throat swabs, collected as part of the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey. Because viral burden distributions determined from community survey data can be biased due to the impact of variant epidemiology on the time-since-infection of samples, we developed a method to explicitly adjust observed Ct value distributions to account for the expected bias. Analysing the adjusted Ct values using partial least squares regression, we found that among unvaccinated individuals with no known prior infection, the average Ct value was 0.94 lower among Alpha variant infections, compared those with the predecessor strain, B.1.177. However, among vaccinated individuals, it was 0.34 lower among Delta variant infections, compared to those with the Alpha variant. In addition, the average Ct value decreased by 0.20 for every 10 year age increment of the infected individual. In summary, within-host viral burdens are associated with age, in addition to the interplay of vaccination status and viral variant.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Parthenogenetic Panagrolaimus species evolve at lower mutation rates, but show increased nucleotide diversity

Asexual reproduction is assumed to lead to the accumulation of deleterious mutations, and reduced heterozygosity due to the absence of recombination. Panagrolaimid nematode species display different modes of reproduction. Sexual reproduction with distinct males and females, asexual reproduction through parthenogenesis in the genus Panagrolaimus, and hermaphroditism in Propanagrolaimus. Here, we compared genomic features of free-living nematode populations in populations and species isolated from geographically distant regions to study diversity, and genome-wide differentiation under different modes of reproduction. We firstly estimated genome-wide spontaneous mutation rates in a triploid parthenogenetic Panagrolaimus population, and a diploid hermaphroditic Propanagrolaimus species via long-term mutation-accumulation-lines. Secondly, we calculated population genetic parameters including nucleotide diversity, and fixation index (FST) between populations of asexually and sexually reproducing nematodes. Thirdly, we used phylogenetic network methods on sexually and asexually reproducing Panagrolaimus populations to understand evolutionary relationships between them. The estimated mutation rate was slightly lower for the asexual population, as expected for taxa with this reproductive mode. Natural polyploid asexual populations revealed higher nucleotide diversity. Despite their common ancestor, a gene network revealed a high level of genetic differentiation among asexual populations. The elevated heterozygosity found in the triploid parthenogens could be explained by the third genome copy. Given their tendentially lower mutation rates it can be hypothesized that this is part of the mechanism to evade Mullers ratchet. Our findings in parthenogenetic triploid nematode populations seem to challenge common expectations of evolution under asexuality.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Interpreting the pervasive observation of U-shaped Site Frequency Spectra

The standard neutral model of molecular evolution has traditionally been used as the null model for population genomics. We gathered a collection of 45 genome-wide site frequency spectra from a diverse set of species, most of which display an excess of low and high frequency variants compared to the expectation of the standard neutral model, resulting in U-shaped spectra. We show that multiple merger coalescent models often provide a better fit to these observations than the standard Kingman coalescent. Hence, in many circumstances these under-utilized models may serve as the more appropriate reference for genomic analyses. We further discuss the underlying evolutionary processes that may result in the widespread U-shape of frequency spectra.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2022

Pangenomics provides insights into the role of synanthropy in barn swallow evolution

Insights into the evolution of non-model organisms are often limited by the lack of reference genomes. As part of the Vertebrate Genomes Project, we present a new reference genome and a pangenome produced with High-Fidelity long reads for the barn swallow Hirundo rustica. We then generated a reference-free multialignment with other bird genomes to identify genes under selection. Conservation analyses pointed at genes enriched for transcriptional regulation and neurodevelopment. The most conserved gene is CAMK2N2, with a potential role in fear memory formation. In addition, using all publicly available data, we generated a comprehensive catalogue of genetic markers. Genome-wide linkage disequilibrium scans identified potential selection signatures at multiple loci. The top candidate region comprises several genes and includes BDNF, a gene involved in stress response, fear memory formation, and tameness. We propose that the strict association with humans in this species is linked with the evolution of pathways typically under selection in domesticated taxa.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2022

The bounded coalescent model: conditioning a genealogy on a minimum root date

The coalescent model represents how individuals sampled from a population may have originated from a last common ancestor. The bounded coalescent model is obtained by conditioning the coalescent model such that the last common ancestor must have existed after a certain date. This conditioned model arises in a variety of applications, such as speciation, horizontal gene transfer or transmission analysis, and yet the bounded coalescent model has not been previously analysed in detail. Here we describe a new algorithm to simulate from this model directly, without resorting to rejection sampling. We show that this direct simulation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the rejection sampling approach. We also show how to calculate the probability of the last common ancestor occurring after a given date, which is required to compute the probability of realisations under the bounded coalescent model. Our results are applicable in both the isochronous (when all samples have the same date) and heterochronous (where samples can have different dates) settings. We explore the effect of setting a bound on the date of the last common ancestor, and show that it affects a number of properties of the resulting phylogenies. All our methods are implemented in a new R package called BoundedCoalescent which is freely available online.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Cell state diversity promotes metastasis through heterotypic cluster formation in melanoma

In melanoma, transcriptional profiling has revealed multiple co-existing cell states, including proliferative versus invasive sub-populations that have been posited to represent a "go or grow" tradeoff. Both of these populations are maintained in tumors, but how they physically interact to promote metastasis is unknown. We demonstrate that these subpopulations form spatially structured heterotypic clusters that cooperate in the seeding of metastasis. We unexpectedly found that INV cells were tightly adherent to each other, and formed clusters with a rim of PRO cells. Intravital imaging demonstrated cooperation between these populations, in which the INV cells facilitated the spread of less metastatic PRO cells. We identified the TFAP2 neural crest transcription factor as a master regulator of both clustering and the PRO/INV states. Our data suggest a framework for the co-existence of these two divergent cell populations, in which differing cell states form heterotypic clusters that promote metastasis via cell-cell cooperation.

cancer biology↗

bioRxiv2020

SARS-CoV-2 genomics beyond the consensus sequence: evidence for circulating mixed viral populations

Extensive global sampling and whole genome sequencing of the pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2 have enabled researchers to characterise its spread, and to identify mutations that may increase transmission or enable the virus to escape therapies or vaccines. Two important components of viral spread are how frequently variants arise within individuals, and how likely they are to be transmitted. Here, we characterise the within-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which genetic diversity is transmitted, by quantifying variant frequencies in 1390 clinical samples from the UK, many from individuals in known epidemiological clusters. We show that SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterised by low levels of within-host diversity across the entire viral genome, with evidence of strong evolutionary constraint in Spike, a key target of vaccines and antibody-based therapies. Although within-host variants can be observed in multiple individuals in the same phylogenetic or epidemiological cluster, highly infectious individuals with high viral load carry only a limited repertoire of viral diversity. Most viral variants are either lost, or occasionally fixed, at the point of transmission, consistent with a narrow transmission bottleneck. These results suggest potential vaccine-escape mutations are likely to be rare in infectious individuals. Nonetheless, we identified Spike variants present in multiple individuals that may affect receptor binding or neutralisation by antibodies. Since the fitness advantage of escape mutations in highly-vaccinated populations is likely to be substantial, resulting in rapid spread if and when they do emerge, these findings underline the need for continued vigilance and monitoring.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2020

Comparing Phylogeographies: Incompatible Geographical Histories in Pathogens' Genomes

Modern phylogeography aims at reconstructing the geographic diffusion of organisms based on their genomic sequences and spatial information. Phylogeographic approaches usually ignore the possibility of recombination, which decouples the evolutionary and geographic histories of different parts of the genome. Genomic regions of recombining or reassorting pathogens often originate and evolve at different times and locations, which characterised their unique spatial histories. Measuring the extent of these differences requires new methods to compare geographic information on phylogenetic trees reconstructed from different parts of the genome. Here we develop for the first time a set of measures of phylogeographic incompatibility aimed at detecting differences between geographical histories in terms of distances between phylogeographies. We study the effect of varying demography and recombination on phylogeographic incompatibilities using coalescent simulations. We further apply these measures to the evolutionary history of human and livestock pathogens, either reassorting or recombining, such as the Victoria and Yamagata lineages of influenza B and the O/Ind-2001 foot-and-mouth disease virus strain. Our results reveal diverse geographical paths of diffusion that characterise the origins and evolutionary histories of different viral genes and genomic segments. phylogeography, recombination, viral evolution

genomics↗

bioRxiv2019

Concordant developmental expression profiles of orthologues in highly divergent Bilateria

Bilateria are the predominant clade of animals on earth. Despite having evolved a large variety of body-plans and developmental modes, they are characterized by common morphological traits. However, it is not clear if clade-specific genes can be linked to these traits, distinguishing bilaterians from non-bilaterians, with their less complex body morphology. Comparing proteomes of bilaterian and non-bilaterian species in an elaborate computational pipeline we aimed to find and define a set of of bilaterian-specific genes. Finding no high-confidence set of such genes, we nevertheless detected an evolutionary signal possibly uniting the highly diverse bilaterian taxa. Using a novel multi-species GO-enrichment method, we determined the functional repertoire of genes that are widely conserved among Bilateria. We found that these genes contribute to morphogenesis, neuronal-system and muscle development, processes that have been described as different between bilaterians and non-bilaterians. Analyzing gene expression profiles in three very distantly related bilaterina species, we find characteristic peaks at comparable stages of development and a delayed onset of expression in embryos. In particular, the expression of the conserved genes appears to peak at the phylotypic stage of different bilaterian phyla. In summary, our data underpin the orthologue conjecture and illustrate how development connects distantly related Bilateria after millions of years of divergence, pointing to processes potentially separating them from non-bilaterians.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Functional and evolutionary impact of polymorphic inversions in the human genome

Inversions are one type of structural variants linked to phenotypic differences and adaptation in multiple organisms. However, there is still very little information about inversions in the human genome due to the difficulty of their detection. Here, thanks to the development of a new high-throughput genotyping method, we have performed a complete study of a representative set of 45 common human polymorphic inversions. Most inversions promoted by homologous recombination occur recurrently both in humans and great apes and, since they are not tagged by SNPs, they are missed by genome-wide association studies. Furthermore, there is an enrichment of inversions showing signatures of positive or balancing selection, diverse functional effects, such as gene disruption and gene-expression changes, or association with phenotypic traits. Therefore, our results indicate that the genome is more dynamic than previously thought and that human inversions have important functional and evolutionary consequences, making possible to determine for the first time their contribution to complex traits.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Genetic distance between complex repeats

Complex nucleotide or aminoacid repeats with long units play an important role in proteins. The evolutionary analysis of these variants is challenging due to genetic diversity within repeat units as well as variability in the arrangement of different units along the repeat sequence. Here we present a new approach for the computation of genetic distances between complex repeats. This method takes into account evolutionary processes including point mutations, insertions and deletions of repeat units, as well as duplication of single units. We provide an algorithm for the computation of these distances along with the corresponding global pairwise alignment of repeats. As an example, we apply our approach to the evolution of repeat units in the highly polymorphic zinc-finger repeat domain of the PRDM9 protein across wild populations of house mice. This approach opens the way for new insights into the evolutionary history of polymorphic repeats.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2018

Within-host recombination in structural proteins of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus

Although recombination is known to occur in FMDV, it is considered only a minor determinant of virus sequence diversity. This is because recombination appears to be highly suppressed at phylogenetic scales; inter-serotypic recombination events are rare; and in those a mosaic structure is present whereby recombination only occurs almost exclusively in non-structural proteins. Here we show that co-inoculation of closely related strains in buffaloes results over time in extensive within-host recombination in the genomic region coding for structural proteins. This enables us to directly estimate recombination rates for the first time. Quite surprisingly, the effective recombination rate in VP1 during the acute infection phase turns out to be about 0.1 per base per year, i.e. comparable to the mutation/substitution rate. Thanks to the features of our experimental setup, we are also able to build a high-resolution map of effective within-host recombination in the capsid-coding region. We find that the linkage disequilibrium pattern inside VP1 points to a mosaic structure with two main genetic blocks. Positive epistatic interactions between co-evolved variants appear to be present both within and between blocks. These interactions are due to intra-host selection both at the RNA and protein level. Overall our findings show that during FMDV co-infections by closely related strains, capsid-coding genes recombine within the host at a much higher rate than expected, despite the presence of strong constraints dictated by the capsid structure. Although those intra-host results are not immediately transportable to a phylogenetic setting, they force us to reconsider the relevance of recombination and epistasis, suggesting that they must play a major and so far underappreciated role in the molecular evolution of the virus at all time scales.\n\nAuthor summaryRecombination in the capsid-coding region of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease virus genome is highly suppressed at phylogenetic scales. However, the role of recombination in the intra-host dynamics of the virus is not known. In our experiment, a co-infection of African buffaloes with closely related FMDV strains results in a population structure of the intra-host viral swarm, allowing us to detect recombination events. For structural protein-coding sequences, the swarm dynamics is driven by extensive within-host recombination. During the acute infection phase, we infer intra-host recombination rates of 0.1 per base per year, comparable to the typical mutation rate of the virus. The recombination map reveals two linkage blocks within the VP1 protein-coding sequence. Epistatic interactions between co-evolved mutations in VP1 are caused by intra-host selection at the RNA and protein level and are present both within and between blocks. Our findings support a major role for recombination and epistasis in the intra-host evolution of FMDV.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2017

The third moments of the site frequency spectrum

The analysis of patterns of segregating (i.e. polymorphic) sites in aligned sequences is routine in population genetics. Quantities of interest include the total number of segregating sites and the number of sites with mutations of different frequencies, the so-called site frequency spectrum. For neutrally evolving sequences, some classical results are available, including the expected value and variance of the spectrum in the Kingman coalescent model without recombination as calculated by FO_SCPLOWUC_SCPLOW (1995).\n\nIn this work, we use similar techniques to compute the third moments of the site frequency spectrum without recombination. We also account for the linkage pattern of mutations, yielding the full haplotype spectrum of three polymorphic sites. Based on these results, we derive analytical results for the bias of Tajimas D and other neutrality tests.\n\nAs an application, we obtain the second moments of the spectrum of linked sites, which is related to the neutral spectrum of chromosomal inversions and other structural variants. These moments can be used for the normalisation of new neutrality tests relying on these spectra.

genetics↗