Biology subjects

Fagan, W. F.

Publications and source records attributed to Fagan, W. F..

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Estimating encounter location distributions from animal tracking data

O_LIEcologists have long been interested in linking individual behavior with higher-level processes. For motile species, this upscaling is governed by how well any given movement strategy maximizes encounters with positive factors, and minimizes encounters with negative factors. Despite the importance of encounter events for a broad range of ecological processes, encounter theory has not kept pace with developments in animal tracking or movement modeling. Furthermore, existing work has focused primarily on the relationship between animal movement and encounter rates while no theoretical framework exists for directly relating individual movement with the spatial locations of encounter events in the environment. C_LIO_LIHere, we bridge this gap by introducing a new theoretical concept describing the long-term encounter location probabilities for movement within home ranges, termed the conditional distribution of encounters (CDE). We then derive this distribution, as well as confidence intervals, implement its statistical estimator into open source software, and demonstrate the broad ecological relevance of this novel concept. C_LIO_LIWe first use simulated data to show how our estimator provides asymptotically consistent estimates. We then demonstrate the general utility of this method for three simulation-based scenarios that occur routinely in biological systems: i) a population of individuals with home ranges that overlap with neighbors; ii) a pair of individuals with a hard territorial border between their home ranges; and iii) a predator with a large home range that encompassed the home ranges of multiple prey individuals. Using GPS data from white-faced capuchins (Cebus capucinus) tracked on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and sleepy lizards (Tiliqua rugosa) tracked in Bundey, South Australia, we then show how the CDE can be used to estimate the locations of territorial borders, identify key resources, quantify the location-specific potential for competition, and/or identify any changes in behaviour that directly result from location-specific encounter probability. C_LIO_LIThis novel target distribution enables researchers to better understand the dynamics of populations of interacting individuals. Notably, the general estimation framework developed in this work builds straightforwardly off of home range estimation and requires no specialised data collection protocols. This method is now openly available via the ctmm R package. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

A comprehensive framework for handling location error in animal tracking data

Animal tracking data are being collected more frequently, in greater detail, and on smaller taxa than ever before. These data hold the promise to increase the relevance of animal movement for understanding ecological processes, but this potential will only be fully realized if their accompanying location error is properly addressed. Historically, coarsely-sampled movement data have proved invaluable for understanding large scale processes (e.g., home range, habitat selection, etc.), but modern fine-scale data promise to unlock far more ecological information. While GPS location error can often be ignored in coarsely sampled data, fine-scale data require more care, and tools to do this have not kept pace. Current approaches to dealing with location error largely fall into two categories--either discarding the least accurate location estimates prior to analysis or simultaneously fitting movement and error parameters in a hidden-state model. In some cases these approaches can provide a level of correction, but they have known limitations, and in some cases they can be worse than doing nothing. Here, we provide a general framework to account for location error in the analysis of triangulated and trilatcralizcd animal tracking data, which includes GPS, Argos Doppler-shift, triangulated VHF, trilatcralized acoustic and cellular location data. We apply our error-modelselection framework to 190 GPS, cellular, and acoustic devices representing 27 models from 14 manufacturers. Collectively, these devices were used to track a wide range of taxa comprising birds, fish, reptiles, and mammals of different sizes and with different behaviors, in urban, suburban, and wild settings. In almost half of the tested device models, error-model selection was necessary to obtain the best performing error model, and in almost a quarter of tested device models, the reported DOP values were actually misinformative. Then, using empirical tracking data from multiple species, we provide an overview of modern, error-informed movement analyses, including continuous-time path reconstruction, home-range distribution, home-range overlap, speed, and distance estimation. Adding to these techniques, we introduce new error-informed estimators for outlier detection and autocorrelation visualization. Because error-induced biases depend on many factors--sampling schedule, movement characteristics, tracking device, habitat, etc.--differential bias can easily confound biological inference and lead researchers to draw false conclusions. We demonstrate how error-informed analyses on calibrated tracking data can provide more accurate estimates are that are insensitive to location error, and allow researchers to use all of their data.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Deciphering trophic interactions in a mid-Cambrian assemblage

The Cambrian Period (541-485 Mya) represents a major stage in the development of metazoan-dominated assemblages with complex community structure and species interactions. Exceptionally preserved fossil sites have allowed specimen-based identification of putative trophic interactions to which network analyses have been applied. However, network analyses of the fossil record suffer from incomplete and indirect data, time averaging that obscures species coexistence, and biases in preservation. Here, we present a novel high-resolution fossil dataset from the Raymond Quarry (RQ) member of the mid-Cambrian Burgess Shale (7549 specimens, 61 taxa, ~510 Mya) affording new perspectives on these challenging issues. Further, we formulate a new measure of preservation bias that aids identification of those assemblage subsets to which network analyses can be reliably applied. For sections with sufficiently low bias, abundance correlation network analyses predicted longitudinally consistent trophic and competitive interactions. Our correlation network analyses predicted previously postulated trophic interactions with 83.5% accuracy and demonstrated a shift from specialist interaction-dominated assemblages to ones dominated by generalist and competitive interactions. This approach provides a robust, taphonomically corrected framework to explore and predict in detail the existence and ecological character of putative interactions in fossil datasets, offering new windows on ancient food-webs. Significance StatementUnderstanding interactions in paleo-ecosystems has been a difficult task due to biases in collection and preservation of taxa, as well as low time resolution of data. In this work, we use network science tools and a fine scale dataset from the Cambrian period to explore: (i) preservation bias due to ecological/physical characteristics of taxa; (ii) evidence that the magnitude and sign of pairwise abundance correlations between two fossil taxa yields information concerning the ecological character about the interaction. All results in our work derive from using complex system approaches to analyze abundance data, without assuming any prior knowledge about species interactions - thereby providing a novel general framework to assess and explore fossil datasets.

paleontology↗

bioRxiv2019

Implicit versus explicit control strategies in models for vector-borne disease epidemiology

Throughout the vector-borne disease modeling literature, there exist two general frameworks for incorporating vector management strategies (e.g. area-wide adulticide spraying and larval source reduction campaigns) into vector population models, namely, the \"implicit\" and \"explicit\" control frameworks. The more simplistic \"implicit\" framework facilitates derivation of mathematically rigorous results on disease suppression and optimal control, but the biological connection of these results to realworld \"explicit\" control actions that could guide specific management actions is vague at best. Here, we formally define the biological and mathematical relationships between implicit and explicit control, and we provide detailed mathematical expressions relating the strength of implicit control to management-relevant properties of explicit control for four common intervention strategies. These expressions allow optimal control and sensitivity analysis results in existing implicit control studies to be interpreted in terms of real world actions. Our work reveals a previously unknown fact: implicit control is a meaningful approximation of explicit control only when resonance-like synergistic effects between multiple controls have a negligible effect on average population reduction. When non-negligible synergy exists, implicit control results, despite their mathematical tidiness, fail to provide accurate predictions regarding vector control and disease spread. The methodology we establish can be applied to study the interaction of phenological effects with control strategies, and we present a new technique for finding impulse control strategies that optimally reduce a vector population in the presence of seasonally oscillating model parameters. Collectively, these elements build an effective bridge between analytically interesting and mathematically tractable implicit control and the challenging, action-oriented explicit control.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Predictor species: Improving assessments of rare species occurrence by modelling environmental co-responses

Designing an effective conservation strategy requires understanding where rare species are located. Although species distribution models are primarily used to identify patterns at large spatial scales, their general methodology is relevant for predicting the occurrence of individual species at specific locations. Here we present a new approach that uses Bayesian networks to improve predictions by modelling environmental co-responses among species. For species from a European peat bog community, our approach consistently performs better than single-species models, and better than conventional multi-species models for rare species when calibration data are limited. Furthermore, we identify a group of "predictor species" that are relatively common, insensitive to the presence of other species, and can be used to improve occurrence predictions of rare species. Predictor species are distinct from other categories of conservation surrogates such as umbrella or indicator species, which motivates focused data collection of predictor species to enhance conservation practices.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Potential link between selection for high GC content and repair of double strand breaks in prokaryotic genomes

Genomic GC content varies widely among microbes for reasons unknown. While mutation bias partially explains this variation, prokaryotes near-universally have a higher GC content than predicted solely by this bias. Debate surrounds the relative importance of the remaining explanations of selection versus biased gene conversion favoring GC alleles. Some environments (e.g. soils) are associated with a high genomic GC content of their inhabitants, which implies that this content may be a selective adaptation to particular habitats. Here, we report a novel association between the presence of the non-homologous end joining DNA doublestrand break repair pathway and GC content; this observation suggests that high GC content may be an adaptation to facilitate repair of double strand breaks when homologous recombination is not possible. We discuss potential mechanisms accounting for the observed association, and provide preliminary evidence that sites experiencing higher rates of doublestrand breaks are under selection for increased GC content relative to the genomic background.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Finding CRISPR’s Niche: Oxygen and Temperature Shape the Incidence of Adaptive Immunity

Bacteria and archaea are locked in a near-constant battle with their viral pathogens. Despite previous mechanistic characterization of numerous prokaryotic defense strategies, the underlying ecological drivers of different strategies remain largely unknown and predicting which species will take which strategies remains a challenge. Here, we focus on the CRISPR immune strategy and develop a phylogenetically-corrected machine learning approach to build a predictive model of CRISPR incidence using data on over 100 traits across over 2600 species. We discover a strong but hitherto-unknown negative interaction between CRISPR and aerobicity, which we hypothesize may result from interference between CRISPR associated proteins and non-homologous end-joining DNA repair due to oxidative stress. Our predictive model also quantitatively confirms previous observations of an association between CRISPR and temperature. Finally, we contrast the environmental associations of different CRISPR system types (I, II, III) and restriction modification systems, all of which act as intracellular immune systems.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Is having more than one CRISPR array adaptive?

Prokaryotes are under nearly constant attack by viral pathogens. To protect against this threat of infection, bacteria and archaea have evolved a wide array of defense mechanisms, singly and in combination. While immune diversity in a single organism likely reduces the chance of pathogen evolutionary escape, it remains puzzling why many prokaryotes also have multiple, seemingly redundant, copies of the same type of immune system. Here, we focus on the highly flexible CRISPR adaptive immune system, which is present in multiple copies in a surprising 28% of the prokaryotic genomes in RefSeq. We use a comparative genomics approach looking across all prokaryotes to demonstrate that, on average, organisms are under selection to maintain more than one CRISPR array. We hypothesize that a tradeoff between memory span and learning speed could select for both \"long-term memory\" and \"short-term memory\" CRISPR arrays, and we go on to develop a mathematical model to show that such a tradeoff could, in theory, lead to selection for multiple arrays.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Immune Loss as a Driver of Coexistence During Host-Phage Coevolution

Bacteria and their viral pathogens face constant pressure for augmented immune and infective capabilities, respectively. Under this reciprocally imposed selective regime, we expect to see a runaway evolutionary arms race, ultimately leading to the extinction of one species. Despite this prediction, in many systems host and pathogen coexist with minimal coevolution even when well-mixed. Previous work explained this puzzling phenomenon by invoking fitness tradeoffs, which can diminish an arms race dynamic. Here we propose that the regular loss of immunity by the bacterial host can also produce host-phage coexistence. We pair a general model of immunity with an experimental and theoretical case study of the CRISPR-Cas immune system to contrast the behavior of tradeoff and loss mechanisms in well-mixed systems. We find that, while both mechanisms can produce stable coexistence, only immune loss does so robustly within realistic parameter ranges.

ecology↗