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Evans, K. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Evans, K. L..

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Bayesian reassessment of the epigenetic architecture of complex traits

1Epigenetic DNA modification is partly under genetic control, and occurs in response to a wide range of environmental exposures. Linking epigenetic marks to clinical outcomes may provide greater insight into underlying molecular processes of disease, assist in the identification of therapeutic targets, and improve risk prediction. Here, we present a statistical approach, based on Bayesian inference, that estimates associations between disease risk and all measured epigenetic probes jointly, automatically controlling for both data structure (including cell-count effects, relatedness, and experimental batch effects) and correlations among probes. We benchmark our approach in simulation study, finding improved estimation of probe associations across a wide range of scenarios over existing approaches. Our method estimates the total proportion of disease risk captured by epigenetic probe variation, and when we applied it to measures of body mass index (BMI) and cigarette consumption behaviour in 5,101 individuals, we find that 66.7% (95% CI 60.0-72.8) of the variation in BMI and 67.7% (95% CI 58.4-76.9) of the variation in cigarette consumption can be captured by methylation array data from whole blood, independent of the variation explained by single nucleotide polymorphism markers. We find novel associations, with smoking behaviour associated with a methylation probe at the MNDA gene with >95% posterior inclusion probability, which is a myeloid cell nuclear differentiation antigen gene previously implicated as a biomarker for inflammation and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk. We conduct unique genome-wide enrichment analyses, identifying blood cholesterol, lipid transport and sterol metabolism pathways for BMI, and response to xenobiotic stimulus and negative regulation of RNA polymerase II promoter transcription for smoking, all with >95% posterior inclusion probability of having methylation probes with associations >1.5 times larger than the average. Finally, we improve phenotypic prediction in two independent cohorts by 28.7% and 10.2% for BMI and smoking respectively over a LASSO model. These results imply that probe measures may capture large amounts of variance because they are likely a consequence of the phenotype rather than a cause. As a result, 'omics' data may enable accurate characterization of disease progression and identification of individuals who are on a path to disease. Our approach facilitates better understanding of the underlying epigenetic architecture of complex common disease and is applicable to any kind of genomics data.

genomics

Epigenetic signatures of starting and stopping smoking

BackgroundMultiple studies have made robust associations between differential DNA methylation and exposure to cigarette smoke. But whether a DNA methylation phenotype is established immediately upon exposure, or only after prolonged exposure is less well-established. Here, we assess DNA methylation patterns in current smokers in response to dose and duration of exposure, along with the effects of smoking cessation on DNA methylation in former smokers.\n\nMethodsDimensionality reduction was applied to DNA methylation data at 90 previously identified smoking-associated CpG sites for over 4,900 individuals in the Generation Scotland cohort. K-means clustering was performed to identify clusters associated with current and never smoker status based on these methylation patterns. Cluster assignments were assessed with respect to duration of exposure in current smokers (years as a smoker), time since smoking cessation in former smokers (years), and dose (cigarettes per day).\n\nResultsTwo clusters were specified, corresponding to never smokers (97.5% of whom were assigned to Cluster 1) and current smokers (81.1% of whom were assigned to Cluster 2). The exposure time point from which >50% of current smokers were assigned to the smoker-enriched cluster varied between 5-9 years in heavier smokers and between 15-19 years in lighter smokers. Low-dose former smokers were more likely to be assigned to the never smoker-enriched cluster from the first year following cessation. In contrast, a period of at least two years was required before the majority of former high-dose smokers were assigned to the never smoker-enriched cluster.\n\nConclusionsOur findings suggest that smoking-associated DNA methylation changes are a result of prolonged exposure to cigarette smoke, and can be reversed following cessation. The length of time in which these signatures are established and recovered is dose dependent. Should DNA methylation-based signatures of smoking status be predictive of smoking-related health outcomes, our findings may provide an additional criterion on which to stratify risk.

genomics

Epigenetic prediction of complex traits and death

BackgroundGenome-wide DNA methylation (DNAm) profiling has allowed for the development of molecular predictors for a multitude of traits and diseases. Such predictors may be more accurate than the self-reported phenotypes, and could have clinical applications. Here, penalised regression models were used to develop DNAm predictors for body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, and educational attainment in a cohort of 5,100 individuals. Using an independent test cohort comprising 906 individuals, the proportion of phenotypic variance explained in each trait was examined for DNAm-based and genetic predictors. Receiver operator characteristic curves were generated to investigate the predictive performance of DNAm-based predictors, using dichotomised phenotypes. The relationship between DNAm scores and all-cause mortality (n = 214 events) was assessed via Cox proportional-hazards models.\n\nResultsThe DNAm-based predictors explained different proportions of the phenotypic variance for BMI (12%), smoking (60%), alcohol consumption (12%) and education (3%). The combined genetic and DNAm predictors explained 20% of the variance in BMI, 61% in smoking, 13% in alcohol consumption, and 6% in education. DNAm predictors for smoking, alcohol, and education but not BMI predicted mortality in univariate models. The predictors showed moderate discrimination of obesity (AUC=0.67) and alcohol consumption (AUC=0.75), and excellent discrimination of current smoking status (AUC=0.98). There was poorer discrimination of college-educated individuals (AUC=0.59).\n\nConclusionsDNAm predictors correlate with lifestyle factors that are associated with health and mortality. They may supplement DNAm-based predictors of age to identify the lifestyle profiles of individuals and predict disease risk.\n\nList of abbreviations

genomics

An epigenetic score for BMI based on DNA methylation correlates with poor physical health and major disease in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936.

BackgroundThe relationship between obesity and adverse health is well established, but little is known about the contribution of DNA methylation to obesity-related health outcomes. Additionally, it is of interest whether such contributions are independent of those attributed by the most widely used clinical measure of body mass - the Body Mass Index (BMI).\n\nMethodWe tested whether an epigenetic BMI score accounts for inter-individual variation in health-related, cognitive, psychosocial and lifestyle outcomes in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 (n=903). Weights for the epigenetic BMI score were derived using penalised regression on methylation data from unrelated Generation Scotland participants (n=2566).\n\nResultsThe Epigenetic BMI score was associated with variables related to poor physical health (R2 ranges from 0.02-0.10), metabolic syndrome (R2 ranges from 0.01-0.09), lower crystallised intelligence (R2=0.01), lower health-related quality of life (R2=0.02), physical inactivity (R2=0.02), and social deprivation (R2=0.02). The epigenetic BMI score (per SD) was also associated with self-reported type 2 diabetes (OR 2.25, 95 % CI 1.74, 2.94), cardiovascular disease (OR 1.44, 95 % CI 1.23, 1.69) and high blood pressure (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13, 1.48; all at p<0.0011 after Bonferroni correction).\n\nConclusionsOur results show that regression models with epigenetic and phenotypic BMI scores as predictors account for a greater proportion of all outcome variables than either predictor alone, demonstrating independent and additive effects of epigenetic and phenotypic BMI scores.

epidemiology

DNA methylation age acceleration and risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease

INTRODUCTIONThe epigenetic clock is a DNA methylation-based estimate of biological age and is correlated with chronological age - the greatest risk factor for Alzheimers disease (AD). Genetic and environmental risk factors exist for AD, several of which are potentially modifiable. Here, we assess the relationship associations between the epigenetic clock and AD risk factors.\n\nMETHODSLinear mixed modelling was used to assess the relationship between age acceleration (the residual of biological age regressed onto chronological age) and AD risk factors relating to cognitive reserve, lifestyle, disease, and genetics in the Generation Scotland study (n=5,100).\n\nRESULTSWe report significant associations between the epigenetic clock and BMI, total:HDL cholesterol ratios, socioeconomic status, and smoking behaviour (Bonferroni-adjusted P<0.05).\n\nDISCUSSIONAssociations are present between environmental risk factors for AD and age acceleration. Measures to modify such risk factors might improve the risk profile for AD and the rate of biological ageing. Future longitudinal analyses are therefore warranted.

genomics

GWAS on family history of Alzheimer’s disease

Alzheimers disease (AD) is a public health priority for the 21st century. Risk reduction currently revolves around lifestyle changes with much research trying to elucidate the biological underpinnings. Using self-report of parental history of Alzheimers dementia for case ascertainment in a genome-wide association study of over 300,000 participants from UK Biobank (32,222 maternal cases, 16,613 paternal cases) and meta-analysing with published consortium data (n=74,046 with 25,580 cases across the discovery and replication analyses), six new AD-associated loci (P<5x10-8) are identified. Three contain genes relevant for AD and neurodegeneration: ADAM10, ADAMTS4, and ACE. Suggestive loci include drug targets such as VKORC1 (warfarin dose) and BZRAP1 (benzodiazepine receptor). We report evidence that association of SNPs and AD at the PVR gene is potentially mediated by both gene expression and DNA methylation in the prefrontal cortex. Our discovered loci may help to elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying AD and, given that many are existing drug targets for other diseases and disorders, warrant further exploration for potential precision medicine applications.

genetics

Accelerated Epigenetic Ageing in Major Depressive Disorder

BackgroundMajor depressive disorder (MDD) is a severe, heritable psychiatric disorder associated with shortened lifespan and comorbidities of advancing age. It is unknown however whether MDD is associated with accelerated biological ageing relative to chronological age. This hypothesis was tested using the epigenetic clock as a measure of biological age.\n\nMethodsTo address the main hypothesis, using peripheral blood, we derived measures of Epigenetic Age Acceleration (EAA) in 3,833 controls and 1,219 MDD cases based on Hannum and Horvath epigenetic clocks in Generation Scotland (GS:SFHS, mean age 48 years, std dev 14.5). Models controlled for relatedness, sex, cell counts, and processing batch (basic model), as well as additional covariates of smoking and drinking status, and body mass index (BMI) (full models).\n\nResultsAccelerated epigenetic ageing was found in MDD cases versus controls using the Horvath clock ({beta}=0.0804, p=0.012 equivalent to 0.20 years) in both the basic and full models. Significant MDD*age interactions indicated greatest effects at younger age ranges. No significant differences were observed for the Hannum clock. BMI was the only additional covariate found to attenuate the relationship between EAAHorvath and MDD. Further, genetic correlation analysis indicated significant overlap in the genetic aetiology of EAAHorvath with BMI (rG=0.20, p=0.03), between MDD with BMI (rG=0.10, p=9.86x10-6), but not between EAAHorvath and MDD (rG=0.14, p=0.125). Mediation analysis indicated partial mediation of the relationship between EAAHorvath and depression status through BMI ({beta} =0.0028; p=0.0248, ~13%).\n\nConclusionThese data imply that accelerated biological ageing is associated with MDD and partially mediated through BMI.

genomics