Biology subjects

Ertl, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Ertl, D..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

A breeder in the sky: scoring flowering with fewer flights

Flowering time is a trait of broad interest and importance to both plant breeders and plant biologists. Unlike many other traits, flowering time cannot be scored accurately from a single observation; its measurement requires repeated observations of the same experiments over time. Both classification- and object-detection-based approaches have demonstrated the potential to estimate flowering time from Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery rather than by manual observation, but they still require data collection at many time points. Here, we train and deploy a regression-based framework for scoring flowering time. Using a dataset of more than 200,000 UAV images and associated flowering-time records collected across 27 environments, we demonstrate that this approach enables the prediction of flowering time from as few as one observation per field experiment and successfully generalizes to field experiments in environments not represented in the training dataset. These results indicate that regression-based approaches for predicting flowering time from sparse UAV observations have the potential to substantially reduce the data-collection burden in field experiments

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2026

An open field phenomics resource for multimodal maize yield prediction across divergent environments

Temporal drone phenotyping captures crop development, but irregular flight schedules complicate comparisons across environments. We release curated imagery from 356 flights across 19 Genomes to Fields environments containing 1,180 maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids. To evaluate its utility, we integrated functional principal components of vegetation index and weather trajectories with genomic information. Combinined genomic and phenomic kernels improved yield prediction, reaching correlations up to r = 0.501 for held-out hybrids in environments represented in training and 0.408 when environments were also withheld. Accumulated growing degree days offered no consistent predictive advantage over days after planting, and weather contributed modest, task-dependent gains. A transformer neural process learned directly from irregular observations, serving as a novel application of neural process models in agriculture. Mapping vegetation index functional principal components identified recurrent quantitative trait loci on chromosomes 3 and 7. This resource and its reproducible analyses guide the use of temporal spectral data for crop prediction and genetic discovery.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2024

Global Genotype by Environment Prediction Competition Reveals That Diverse Modeling Strategies Can Deliver Satisfactory Maize Yield Estimates

Predicting phenotypes from a combination of genetic and environmental factors is a grand challenge of modern biology. Slight improvements in this area have the potential to save lives, improve food and fuel security, permit better care of the planet, and create other positive outcomes. In 2022 and 2023 the first open-to-the-public Genomes to Fields (G2F) initiative Genotype by Environment (GxE) prediction competition was held using a large dataset including genomic variation, phenotype and weather measurements and field management notes, gathered by the project over nine years. The competition attracted registrants from around the world with representation from academic, government, industry, and non-profit institutions as well as unaffiliated. These participants came from diverse disciplines include plant science, animal science, breeding, statistics, computational biology and others. Some participants had no formal genetics or plant-related training, and some were just beginning their graduate education. The teams applied varied methods and strategies, providing a wealth of modeling knowledge based on a common dataset. The winners strategy involved two models combining machine learning and traditional breeding tools: one model emphasized environment using features extracted by Random Forest, Ridge Regression and Least-squares, and one focused on genetics. Other high-performing teams methods included quantitative genetics, classical machine learning/deep learning, mechanistic models, and model ensembles. The dataset factors used, such as genetics; weather; and management data, were also diverse, demonstrating that no single model or strategy is far superior to all others within the context of this competition.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Yield Prediction Through Integration of Genetic, Environment, and Management Data Through Deep Learning

Accurate prediction of the phenotypic outcomes produced by different combinations of genotypes, environments, and management interventions remains a key goal in biology with direct applications to agriculture, research, and conservation. The past decades have seen an expansion of new methods applied towards this goal. Here we predict maize yield using deep neural networks, compare the efficacy of two model development methods, and contextualize model performance using linear models, which are the conventional method for this task, and machine learning models We examine the usefulness of incorporating interactions between disparate data types. We find a deep learning model with interactions has the best average performance. Optimizing submodules for each datatype improved model performance relative to optimizing the whole model for all data types at once. Examining the effect of interactions in the best performing model revealed that including interactions altered the models sensitivity to weather and management features, including a reduction of the importance scores for timepoints expected to have limited physiological basis for influencing yield - those at the extreme end of the season, nearly 200 days post planting. Based on these results, deep learning provides a promising avenue for phenotypic prediction of complex traits in complex environments and a potential mechanism to better understand the influence of environmental and genetic factors.

plant biology↗