Ernst, B. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2020

Are we ready to track climate-driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? - A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data

Marine biota is redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of data availability, and mismatch between data and real species distributions. To assess the extent of this challenge, we review the global status and accessibility of ongoing scientific bottom trawl surveys. In total, we gathered metadata for 283,925 samples from 95 surveys conducted regularly from 2001 to 2019. 59% of the metadata collected are not publicly available, highlighting that the availability of data is the most important challenge to assess species redistributions under global climate change. We further found that single surveys do not cover the full range of the main commercial demersal fish species and that an average of 18 surveys is needed to cover at least 50% of species ranges, demonstrating the importance of combining multiple surveys to evaluate species range shifts. We assess the potential for combining surveys to track transboundary species redistributions and show that differences in sampling schemes and inconsistency in sampling can be overcome with vector autoregressive spatio-temporal modeling to follow species density redistributions. In light of our global assessment, we establish a framework for improving the management and conservation of transboundary and migrating marine demersal species. We provide directions to improve data availability and encourage countries to share survey data, to assess species vulnerabilities, and to support management adaptation in a time of climate-driven ocean changes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Detection of residual disease after neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer using personalized circulating tumor DNA analysis

Accurate detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) can guide individualized management of early stage cancer patients, but current diagnostic approaches lack adequate sensitivity. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) analysis has shown promise for recurrence monitoring but MRD detection immediately after neoadjuvant therapy or surgical resection has remained challenging. We have developed TARgeted DIgital Sequencing (TARDIS) to simultaneously analyze multiple patient-specific cancer mutations in plasma and improve sensitivity for minute quantities of residual tumor DNA. In 77 reference samples at 0.03%-1% mutant allele fraction (AF), we observed 93.5% sensitivity. Using TARDIS, we analyzed ctDNA in 34 samples from 13 patients with stage II/III breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy. Prior to treatment, we detected ctDNA in 12/12 patients at 0.002%-1.04% AF (0.040% median). After completion of neoadjuvant therapy, we detected ctDNA in 7/8 patients with residual disease observed at surgery and in 1/5 patients with pathological complete response (odds ratio, 18.5, Fishers exact p=0.032). These results demonstrate high accuracy for a personalized blood test to detect residual disease after neoadjuvant therapy. With additional clinical validation, TARDIS could identify patients with molecular complete response after neoadjuvant therapy who may be candidates for nonoperative management.\n\nOne Sentence SummaryA personalized ctDNA test achieves high accuracy for residual disease.

genomics↗