Edwards, A. J. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Fine-tuning heat stress algorithms to optimise global predictions of mass coral bleaching

Increasingly severe marine heatwaves under climate change threaten the persistence of many marine ecosystems. Mass coral bleaching events, caused by periods of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SST), have led to catastrophic levels of coral mortality globally. Remotely monitoring and forecasting such biotic responses to heat stress is key for effective marine ecosystem management. The Degree Heating Week (DHW) metric, designed to monitor coral bleaching risk, reflects the duration and intensity of heat stress events, and is computed by accumulating SST anomalies (HotSpot) relative to a stress threshold over a 12-week moving window. Despite significant improvements in the underlying SST datasets, corresponding revisions of the HotSpot threshold and accumulation window are still lacking. Here, we fine-tune the operational DHW algorithm to optimise coral bleaching predictions using the 5km satellite-based SSTs (CoralTemp v3.1) and a global coral bleaching dataset (37,871 observations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). After developing 234 test DHW algorithms with different combinations of HotSpot threshold and accumulation window, we compared their bleaching-prediction ability using spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical models and sensitivity-specificity analyses. Peak DHW performance was reached using HotSpot thresholds less than or equal to Maximum Monthly Mean SST and accumulation windows of 4 - 8 weeks. This new configuration correctly predicted up to an additional 310 bleaching observations compared to the operational DHW algorithm, an improved hit rate of 7.9 %. Given the detrimental impacts of marine heatwaves across ecosystems, heat stress algorithms could also be fine-tuned for other biological systems, improving scientific accuracy, and enabling ecosystem governance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

A framework for selectively breeding corals for assisted evolution

Coral cover on tropical reefs has declined during the last three decades due to the combined effects of climate change, destructive fishing, pollution, and land use change. Drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions combined with effective coastal management and conservation strategies are essential to slow this decline. Innovative approaches, such as selective breeding for adaptive traits combined with large-scale sexual propagation, are being developed with the aim of pre-adapting reefs to increased ocean warming. However, there are still major gaps in our understanding of the technical and methodological constraints to producing corals for such restoration interventions. Here we propose a framework for selectively breeding corals and rearing them from eggs to 2.5-year old colonies using the coral Acropora digitifera as a model species. We present methods for choosing colonies for selective crossing, enhancing early survivorship in ex situ and in situ nurseries, and outplanting and monitoring colonies on natal reefs. We used a short-term (7-day) temperature stress assay to select parental colonies based on heat tolerance of excised branches. From six parental colonies, we produced 12 distinct crosses, and compared survivorship and growth of colonies transferred to in situ nurseries or outplanted to the reef at different ages. We demonstrate that selectively breeding and rearing coral colonies is technically feasible at small scales and could be upscaled as part of restorative assisted evolution initiatives. Nonetheless, there are still challenges to overcome before selective breeding can be implemented as a viable conservation tool, especially at the post-settlement and outplanting phases. Although interdisciplinary approaches will be needed to overcome many of the challenges identified in this study, selective breeding has the potential to be a viable tool within reef managers toolbox to support the persistence of selected reefs in the face of climate change.

ecology↗