Biology subjects

Early, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Early, R..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Climate-smart prioritisation of tropical Key Biodiversity Areas for protection in response to widespread temperature novelty.

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are a cornerstone of 21st century area-based conservation targets. In tropical KBAs, biodiversity is potentially at high risk from climate change, because most species reside within or beneath the canopy, where small increases in temperature can lead to novel climate regimes. We quantify novelty in temperature regimes by modelling hourly temperatures below the forest canopy across tropical KBAs between 1990 and 2019. We find that up to 66% of KBAs with tropical forest are likely to have transitioned to novel temperature regimes. Nevertheless, 34% of KBAs are providing refuge from novelty, 58% of which are not protected. By conducting the first pan-tropical analyses of changes in below-canopy temperatures, we identify KBAs that are acting as climate refugia and should be prioritised as candidates for expansion of the conservation network in response to the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework target to conserve 30% of land area by 2030.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach

BACKGROUNDThe fall armyworm (FAW), an invasive pest from the Americas, is rapidly spreading through the Old World, and has recently invaded the Indochinese Peninsula and southern China. In the Americas, FAW migrates from winter-breeding areas in the south into summer-breeding areas throughout North America where it is a major pest of corn. Asian populations are also likely to evolve migrations into the corn-producing regions of eastern China, where they will pose a serious threat to food security.\n\nRESULTSTo evaluate the invasion risk in eastern China, the rate of expansion and future migratory range was modelled by a trajectory simulation approach, combined with flight behaviour and meteorological data. Our results predict that FAW will migrate from its new year-round breeding regions into the two main corn-producing regions of eastern China (the North China and Northeast China Plains), via two pathways. The western pathway originates in Myanmar and Yunnan, and FAW will take four migration steps to reach the North China Plain by July. Migration along the eastern pathway from Indochina and southern China progresses faster, with FAW reaching the North China Plain in three steps by June and reaching the Northeast China Plain in July.\n\nCONCLUSIONOur results indicate that there is a high risk that FAW will invade the major corn-producing areas of eastern China via two migration pathways, and cause significant impacts to agricultural productivity. Information on migration pathways and timings can be used to inform integrated pest management strategies for this emerging pest.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2018

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20-50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe damage to livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa, and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworms year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworms year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.

ecology↗