Duraffour, S. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Emergence of mpox in Guinea: sporadic clade IIa cases and a clade IIb upsurge

BackgroundMpox virus (MPXV) has caused recurrent outbreaks in West Africa. However, Guinea had not previously reported laboratory-confirmed cases or MPXV genomic data. MethodsSuspected cases were identified in the NZerekore region as well as in the Conakry (Sept 2024- Dec 2025) and confirmed by real-time PCR in regional and central laboratories, respectively. Whole-genome sequencing using nanopore technology was performed in-country, followed by phylogenetic and time-scaled evolutionary analyses. FindingsThe first mpox case was clinically diagnosed in September 2024 in the NZerekore region and laboratory-confirmed by the prefectural laboratory in Gueckedou. In total, seven cases were confirmed in Forest Guinea, of which five complete or almost complete MPXV genomes were recovered. All belonged to MPXV clade IIa. Genomic divergence, ancestral dating, and low APOBEC3-associated mutation frequencies were consistent with multiple independent zoonotic spillover events. In June 2025, one of the first mpox cases of an unfolding outbreak was confirmed in Conakry. Whole genome sequencing revealed MPXV clade IIb lineage G.1. By December 2025, the number of laboratory-confirmed mpox cases nationwide increased to 2,151. A total of nine outbreak strains were sequenced, all belonging to Clade IIb. The genomes clustered with contemporaneous genomes from Sierra Leone and showed high APOBEC3-associated mutation frequencies, suggesting sustained human-to-human transmission in the region. InterpretationThese data demonstrate simultaneous circulation of MPXV clade IIa and IIb strains in Guinea, likely resulting from zoonotic spillover and human-to-human transmission, respectively. Decentralised diagnostics and in-country sequencing facilitated rapid case confirmation and genomic surveillance, highlighting the importance of these critical capacities for outbreak preparedness and response. FundingGerman Federal Ministry of Health and the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF).

genomics↗

bioRxiv2021

Predicting the evolution of Lassa Virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Lassa fever is listed among the diseases that pose the greatest risks to public health by the World Health Organization. This severe viral hemorrhagic fever is caused by Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate change, transformations in land use, and human population growth could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. We project that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in areas suitable for Lassa virus may grow from about 100 million to 700 million by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. Our results highlight how the endemic area of Lassa virus may expand well beyond West Africa in the next decades due to human impact on the environment, putting hundreds of million more people at risk of infection.

microbiology↗